By Satoshi Sugiyama
作者：杉山智
Tokyo, June 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan Will Decide to Start Tapering Its Monthly Bond Buying at This Week's Policy Meeting, Nearly Two-Thirds of Economists Said in a Reuters Poll, Taking an Important First Step Toward Eventually Reducing Its Ballooning Balance Sheet.
東京，6月11日（路透社）— 近三分之二的經濟學家在路透社的一項民意調查中表示，日本央行將在本週的政策會議上決定開始縮減其每月債券購買規模，這是朝着最終縮減其不斷膨脹的資產負債表邁出的重要的第一步。
The Findings Show a Majority of Economists Are Convinced the Japanese Central Bank Is Laying the Groundwork, Possibly Earlier Than Expected, for Monetary Policy Tightening at a Time Most Other Major Central Banks Are Leaning Toward Easing.
調查結果顯示，大多數經濟學家堅信，在大多數其他主要央行傾向於寬鬆政策之際，日本央行正在爲緊縮貨幣政策奠定基礎，可能比預期的要早。
BOJ Policymakers Are Brainstorming Ways to Slow Its Bond Buying and May Offer Fresh Guidance as Early as the Two-Day Policy-Setting Meeting Ending on Friday, Reuters Reported.
路透社，日本央行決策者正在集思廣益，減緩債券購買速度，最早可能在週五結束的爲期兩天的政策制定會議上提供新的指導 已舉報。
Nearly Two-Thirds of Economists, or 20 of 32, Projected the BOJ Would Make a Decision on Bond Buying, According to the June 3-7 Poll. That Was up Sharply From 41%, or 11 of 27, in May.
6月3日至7日的民意調查顯示，近三分之二的經濟學家，即32位經濟學家中的20位，預計日本央行將就債券購買做出決定。這比5月份的41％，即27箇中的11個大幅上升。
"There Is No Longer Any Reason to Continue Large-Scale Purchases of Government Bonds Since It Has Been Judged That a 2% Rise in Prices Is Within Reach," Said Takeshi Minami, Chief Economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
Norinchukin研究所首席經濟學家Takeshi Minami表示：“由於人們認爲價格上漲2％觸手可及，因此不再有任何理由繼續大規模購買政府債券。”
The BOJ's Balance Sheet Is 750 Trillion Yen ($4.77 Trillion), Nearly 1.3 Times the Size of Japan's Economy.
日本央行的資產負債表爲750萬億日元（合4.77萬億美元），幾乎是日本經濟規模的1.3倍。
The Risks of Renewed Selling Pressure on the Yen Will Also Increase IF the BOJ Does Not Address Rolling Back Bond Purchases This Month, Said Kazutaka Maeda, Economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.
明治安田研究所經濟學家前田和隆表示，如果日本央行本月不解決回滾債券購買問題，日元再次面臨拋售壓力的風險也將增加。
A 16% Minority of Economists Said the Central Bank Would Make the Decision at Its July Policy Meeting, While 9% Said September. the Rest Chose Either Some Time in October or After. One Said the BOJ Would Not Reduce Its Pace of Bond Purchases Any Time Soon.
16％的少數經濟學家表示，央行將在7月的政策會議上做出決定，而9％的經濟學家表示9月份做出決定。其餘的人選擇了10月或之後的某個時間。有人說，日本央行不會在短期內降低債券購買步伐。
There Were Few Changes in the June Poll Compared With Last Month's on the Policy Interest Rate. All but One Predicted the BOJ Would Hold Its Short-Term Rate in a 0-0.1% Range at Its Policy Meeting This Week.
與上個月的政策利率相比，6月份的民意調查幾乎沒有變化。除一人外，其他所有人都預測日本央行將在本週的政策會議上將其短期利率維持在0-0.1％的區間內。
A 92% Majority (49 of 53) Said That Rate Would Rise to at Least 0.20% by Year-End, up Slightly From 88% (43 of 59) in the May Poll.
92％的多數人（53人中的49人）表示，到年底，該利率將升至至少0.20％，略高於5月民意調查的88％（59人中的43％）。
Nearly Half of Respondents, 27 of 55, Said the Policy Rate Would Jump to Between 0.20% and 0.50% in the July-September Quarter, Virtually the Same Proportion as Last Month's Survey.
近一半的受訪者（55人中有27人）表示，7月至9月季度的政策利率將躍升至0.20％至0.50％之間，與上個月的調查比例幾乎相同。
Julius Baer, the Only Firm Predicting Higher Rates in the Current Quarter Ending This Month, Expected the BOJ to Raise Its Short-Term Rate to 0.30% by the End of September.
唯一一家預測截至本月的本季度將提高利率的公司朱利葉斯·貝爾（Julius Baer）預計，日本央行將在9月底之前將其短期利率提高至0.30％。
Another 43% of Economists, 23 of 53, Forecast the BOJ to Put up Rates to Either 0.20% or 0.25% in October-December.
另有43％的經濟學家（53位經濟學家中有23位）預測日本央行將在10月至12月將利率提高到0.20％或0.25％。
Of a SAMPLE of 38 Who Provided a Forecast for Which Specific Month the BOJ Would Next Hike Rates, Predictions Were Close, With July and October at 39% Each.
在預測日本央行下次將在哪個特定月份加息的38名樣本中，預測非常接近，7月和10月各爲39％。
Another 13% Chose September, Followed by 3% Each for December, "2025 or Later" and "BOJ Will Not Raise Rates Further."
另有13％的人選擇了9月，其次是12月的3％，“2025年或以後” 和 “日本央行不會進一步加息”。
A Further 84% of Economists, 26 of 31, Said the Government and the BOJ Will Intervene to Stem the Japanese Currency From Weakening Further, Almost Exactly the Same as 85% in May. a Majority Expect Action at 160 Yen Against the U.S. Dollar.
另有84％的經濟學家（31人中有26人）表示，政府和日本央行將進行干預，以阻止日元進一步貶值，與5月份的85％幾乎完全相同。大多數人預計兌美元匯率爲160日元。
Over Three-Fifths, or 19 of 31, Said They Expect the Government's Temporary Cuts in Income and Resident Taxes Starting This Month Would Stimulate Consumption.
超過五分之三（31人中有19人）表示，他們預計政府從本月開始臨時削減所得稅和居民稅將刺激消費。
(for Other Stories From the Reuters Global Economic Poll: NL4N3I324H)
（參見路透社全球經濟民意調查的其他報道： NL4N3I324H)
($1 = 157.1100 Yen)
（1 美元 = 157.1100 日元）
(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Polling by Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak; Editing by SAM Holmes)
（杉山聰報道；Milounee Purohit 和 Anant Chandak 的民意調查；SAM Holmes 編輯）