By Satoshi Sugiyama
由Satoshi Sugiyama編寫
Tokyo, June 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan Will Decide to Start Tapering Its Monthly Bond Buying at This Week's Policy Meeting, Nearly Two-Thirds of Economists Said in a Reuters Poll, Taking an Important First Step Toward Eventually Reducing Its Ballooning Balance Sheet.
東京，6月11日（路透社）-路透社的一項調查顯示，近三分之二的經濟學家表示，日本銀行將決定在本週的貨幣政策會議上開始縮減其每月債券購買規模，這是向最終縮減其不斷膨脹的資產負債表邁出的一步重要步驟。調查結果顯示，大多數經濟學家相信日本央行正在爲貨幣政策收緊鋪平道路，而此時大多數其他主要央行都在傾向於寬鬆政策。日本銀行的政策制定者們正在構思減緩債券購買的方法，並可能在本週五結束爲期兩天的政策會議上提供新的指導。在6月3日至7日的民調中，將近三分之二的經濟學家，即32位中的20位，預測日本銀行將對債券購買做出決策。相比之下，5月份只有41%的受訪者認爲如此。 採訪中的參與者包括前、現任BOJ機構成員以及大多數經濟學家。 調查的其他結果及分析將於6月13日公佈。
The Findings Show a Majority of Economists Are Convinced the Japanese Central Bank Is Laying the Groundwork, Possibly Earlier Than Expected, for Monetary Policy Tightening at a Time Most Other Major Central Banks Are Leaning Toward Easing.
調查結果顯示，大多數經濟學家相信日本央行正在爲貨幣政策收緊鋪平道路，而此時大多數其他主要央行都在傾向於寬鬆政策。
BOJ Policymakers Are Brainstorming Ways to Slow Its Bond Buying and May Offer Fresh Guidance as Early as the Two-Day Policy-Setting Meeting Ending on Friday, Reuters Reported.
日本銀行的政策制定者正在構思減緩債券購買的方法，並可能在本週五結束爲期兩天的政策會議上提供新的指導。報告.
Nearly Two-Thirds of Economists, or 20 of 32, Projected the BOJ Would Make a Decision on Bond Buying, According to the June 3-7 Poll. That Was up Sharply From 41%, or 11 of 27, in May.
在6月3日至7日的民調中，將近三分之二的經濟學家，即32位中的20位，預測日本銀行將對債券購買做出決策。相比之下，5月份只有41%的受訪者認爲如此。
"There Is No Longer Any Reason to Continue Large-Scale Purchases of Government Bonds Since It Has Been Judged That a 2% Rise in Prices Is Within Reach," Said Takeshi Minami, Chief Economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
採訪中的參與者包括前、現任BOJ機構成員以及大多數經濟學家。 "由於判斷已經達到價格上漲2％的目標，所以不再需要繼續大規模購買政府債券。"的發言者Takeshi Minami是農信研究所的首席經濟學家。
The BOJ's Balance Sheet Is 750 Trillion Yen ($4.77 Trillion), Nearly 1.3 Times the Size of Japan's Economy.
日本銀行的資產負債表爲750萬億日元（4.77萬億美元），幾乎是日本經濟規模的1.3倍。
The Risks of Renewed Selling Pressure on the Yen Will Also Increase IF the BOJ Does Not Address Rolling Back Bond Purchases This Month, Said Kazutaka Maeda, Economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.
若日本銀行本月未解決債券購買的問題，則再次出現日元下跌的風險將會增加，名古屋市（Meiji Yasuda Research Institute）的經濟學家Kazutaka Maeda說。
A 16% Minority of Economists Said the Central Bank Would Make the Decision at Its July Policy Meeting, While 9% Said September. the Rest Chose Either Some Time in October or After. One Said the BOJ Would Not Reduce Its Pace of Bond Purchases Any Time Soon.
約16%的經濟學家表示，日本央行將在7月的政策會議上做出決策，而9%則表示是9月。其餘的人則選擇在10月之後或之後的任何時間做出決策。其中一人表示，日本銀行不會很快減緩債券購買的速度。
There Were Few Changes in the June Poll Compared With Last Month's on the Policy Interest Rate. All but One Predicted the BOJ Would Hold Its Short-Term Rate in a 0-0.1% Range at Its Policy Meeting This Week.
就政策利率而言，在政策會議上，除一位外，所有人都預測日本央行將在0.0-0.1％的範圍內持有短期利率。
A 92% Majority (49 of 53) Said That Rate Would Rise to at Least 0.20% by Year-End, up Slightly From 88% (43 of 59) in the May Poll.
92%的多數派（53中的49人）表示，利率到年底將上升至至少0.20％，略高於5月民調中的88%（59中的43人）。
Nearly Half of Respondents, 27 of 55, Said the Policy Rate Would Jump to Between 0.20% and 0.50% in the July-September Quarter, Virtually the Same Proportion as Last Month's Survey.
近一半的受訪者（55人中的27人）表示，政策利率將在7月至9月季度躍升至0.20％至0.50％之間，與上月的調查基本持平。
Julius Baer, the Only Firm Predicting Higher Rates in the Current Quarter Ending This Month, Expected the BOJ to Raise Its Short-Term Rate to 0.30% by the End of September.
唯一一家預測當季利率將上升的Julius Baer預計，日本銀行將在9月底將短期利率上調至0.30％。
Another 43% of Economists, 23 of 53, Forecast the BOJ to Put up Rates to Either 0.20% or 0.25% in October-December.
43%的經濟學家（53中的23人）預測，日本銀行將在10月至12月期間將利率上升至0.20％或0.25％。
Of a SAMPLE of 38 Who Provided a Forecast for Which Specific Month the BOJ Would Next Hike Rates, Predictions Were Close, With July and October at 39% Each.
爲了確定日本銀行何時會下一次加息，38人中有39%的人選擇了7月和10月，預測接近。
Another 13% Chose September, Followed by 3% Each for December, "2025 or Later" and "BOJ Will Not Raise Rates Further."
另有13%選擇9月，其次是3%的人選擇12月，“2025年或以後”和“BOJ不會再進一步升息”各佔3%。
A Further 84% of Economists, 26 of 31, Said the Government and the BOJ Will Intervene to Stem the Japanese Currency From Weakening Further, Almost Exactly the Same as 85% in May. a Majority Expect Action at 160 Yen Against the U.S. Dollar.
另外84%的經濟學家中，31人中有26人表示政府和日本銀行將會干預以阻止日元進一步貶值，與今年5月份的85%幾乎相同。大多數人預計，當美元兌日元達到160時，將會採取行動。
Over Three-Fifths, or 19 of 31, Said They Expect the Government's Temporary Cuts in Income and Resident Taxes Starting This Month Would Stimulate Consumption.
三分之二的選民（即31人中的19人）認爲，政府從本月開始實施的暫時性所得和居民稅的削減將會刺激消費。
(for Other Stories From the Reuters Global Economic Poll: NL4N3I324H)
(查看路透全球經濟調查的其他故事:NL4N3I324H)
($1 = 157.1100 Yen)
（1美元=157.1100日元）
(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Polling by Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak; Editing by SAM Holmes)
報道：Satoshi Sugiyama；投票：Milounee Purohit和Anant Chandak；編輯：SAM Holmes。