中信证券:预计原油需求将小幅增长 油价有望中高位波动

CITIC Securities: Crude oil demand is expected to increase slightly, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate at medium to high levels

Breakings ·  May 29 08:21
The CITIC Securities Research Report said that on the crude oil supply side, the implementation of production cuts in Iraq and Russia in April fell short of expectations and insufficient support. New production reduction decisions may be formed at the June OPEC+ meeting, which may support the rise in crude oil prices. On the demand side, China introduced a series of new real estate policies to stimulate domestic demand, market sentiment was boosted, and commodity performance was strong, driving expectations for crude oil demand growth; according to EIA data, the US gasoline cracking gap continued to pick up after May, and the operating rate of US refineries rose to more than 90%. Demand for refined oil products boosted with the arrival of the holidays. At the same time, if the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in the second half of the year, or there is positive support for crude oil prices; the IMF and other institutions recently raised global economic growth expectations for 2024. CITIC Securities believes that global crude oil demand is expected to gradually increase along with economic growth in the second half of the year. Same There is still room for improvement. Looking at the geographical side and financial attributes, recent US inflation data and trading interest rate cuts are dragging down crude oil prices. There is no significant expansion trend in local geopolitical conflicts, and crude oil prices continued to decline in May due to combined effects. Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, local geographic events are expected to continue. Changes in the situation in major oil producing countries are an important factor in the direction of oil price changes. Demand for crude oil is expected to increase slightly, and supply cuts and geographical events are expected to support medium to high fluctuations in oil prices of 80 to 90 US dollars/barrel.

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