Adds EIA Storage Report, Latest Prices
添加 EIA 存儲報告、最新價格
By Scott Disavino
作者:斯科特·迪薩維諾
May 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slid About 2% on Thursday From a Four-Month High in the Prior Session on Signs Recent High Prices Have Prompted an Increase in Production.
5月23日(路透社)— 週四,美國天然氣期貨從前一交易日的四個月高點下跌約2%,原因是有跡象表明近期的高價推動了產量的增加。
That Price Decline Came Despite a Federal Report Showing the Amount of Gas Injected Into Storage Last Week Was Lower Than Expected. Traders Said Storage Builds Have Been Lower Than Usual Over the Past Four Weeks Despite Mostly Mild Weather That Kept Heating and Cooling Demand Low Due to Output Cuts in Recent Months.
儘管聯邦報告顯示上週注入儲存的天然氣量低於預期,但價格還是出現了下跌。交易商表示,儘管由於最近幾個月的減產,主要是溫和的天氣使供暖和製冷需求保持在較低水平,但過去四周的存儲量仍低於平時。
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Said Utilities Added 78 Billion Cubic Feet (Bcf) of Gas Into Storage During the Week Ended May 17.
美國能源信息管理局(EIA)表示,在截至5月17日的一週內,公用事業公司向儲存量增加了780億立方英尺(Bcf)的天然氣。
THat Was Lower Than the 85-Bcf Build Analysts Forecast in a Reuters Poll and Compares With an Increase of 97 Bcf in the Same Week Last Year and a Five-Year (2019-2023) Average Rise of 91 Bcf for This Time of Year. EIA/Gas Ngas/Poll
這低於路透社民意調查中分析師預測的850億立方英尺,相比之下,去年同期增長了970億立方英尺,五年(2019-2023年)平均增長910億立方英尺。 環境影響評估/天然氣 Ngas/民意調查
THat Build Left Gas Stockpiles About 29% Above Normal Levels for This Time of Year.
這種增加使每年的這個時候的天然氣庫存比正常水平高出約29%。
Front-Month Gas Futures Ngc1 for June Delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange Fell 6.4 Cents, or 2.3%, to $2.778 per Million British Thermal Units (Mmbtu) at 10:35 A.m. Edt (1435 Gmt). on Wednesday, the Contract Closed at Its Highest Since Jan. 17.
近月天然氣期貨 Ngc1 美國東部時間上午10點35分(格林威治標準時間14點35分),紐約商品交易所6月交割的股價下跌6.4美分,至每百萬英熱單位(Mmbtu)2.778美元,跌幅2.3%。週三,該合約收於1月17日以來的最高水平。
Despite the Decline, the Front-Month Remained in Technically Overbought Territory for a 15TH Day in a Row for the First Time Since June 2016.
儘管下跌,但前月自2016年6月以來首次連續第15天保持在技術超買區間。
In Other News, Power Use in Texas Was on Track to Break the Record for the Month of May for a Second Time This Week on Friday and Could Top That Again Over the Memorial Day Weekend as Homes and Businesses Crank up Their Air Conditioners to Escape a Heat Wave.
在其他新聞方面,得克薩斯州的用電量有望在本週五第二次打破5月份的紀錄,並可能在陣亡將士紀念日週末再次突破這一紀錄,因爲家庭和企業爲逃避熱浪而調高了空調。
In the Spot Market, Next-Day Power at the Palo Verde Hub El-Pk-Plvd-Snl in Arizona and South Path-15 (SP-15) El-Pk-SP15-Snl in Southern California Remained in Negative Territory for a Second Day This Week.
在現貨市場上,帕洛佛得角中心的次日電力 El-Pk-plvd-Snl 在亞利桑那州和南15號公路 (SP-15) el-pk-sp15-SNL 本週南加州連續第二天處於負值區間。
U.S. Next-Day Power and Gas Prices Have Turned Negative Several Times Already in 2024, Especially in Texas, Arizona and California. Prices at Palo Verde Have Averaged Below Zero 16 Times so Far This Year Versus Just Once in the Past in 2019. SP-15 Prices, Which Never Averaged Below Zero Before This Year, Have Already Hit That Mark 13 Times.
2024年,美國次日電力和天然氣價格已經多次轉爲負數,尤其是 德州, 亞利桑那和加利福尼亞州。今年迄今爲止,帕洛佛得角的平均價格已降至零以下16次,而2019年只有一次。SP-15 價格在今年之前從未平均低於零,已經達到了這個大關13次。
Supply and Demand
供應和需求
Financial Firm Lseg Said Gas Output in the Lower 48 U.S. States Fell to an Average of 97.4 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (Bcfd) so Far in May, Down From 98.2 Bcfd in April. That Compares With a Monthly Record of 105.5 Bcfd in December 2023.
金融公司Lseg表示,5月份美國下48個州的天然氣產量從4月份的982億立方英尺降至平均每天974億立方英尺(Bcfd)。相比之下,2023年12月的月度創紀錄爲105.5億立方英尺。
On a Daily Basis, However, Output Was up About 0.9 Bcfd Since Hitting a 15-Week Low of 96.2 Bcfd on May 1. Energy Traders Said That Increase Was a Sign That the 63% Gain in Futures Prices Over the Past Three Weeks Prompted Some Drillers to Start Producing More Gas.
但是,自5月1日觸及15周低點96.2億立方英尺以來,每日產量增長了約0.9億立方英尺。能源交易商表示,這一上漲表明,過去三週期貨價格上漲了63%,促使一些鑽探人員開始生產更多天然氣。
Overall, U.S. Gas Production Was Down Around 8% so Far in 2024 After Several Energy Firms, Including EQT Eqt.n and Chesapeake Energy Chk.o, Delayed Well Completions and Cut Back on Other Drilling Activities After Prices Fell to 3-1/2-Year Lows in February and March.
總體而言,在包括幾家能源公司在內的幾家能源公司之後,2024年迄今美國天然氣產量下降了約8% EQT eqt.n 和 切薩皮克能源 chk.o,在2月和3月價格跌至3-1/2年低點之後,推遲了油井完工並削減了其他鑽探活動。
EQT Is the Biggest U.S. Gas Producer and Chesapeake Is on Track to Become the Biggest Producer After Its Merger With Southwestern Energy Swn.n.
殷拓是美國最大的天然氣生產商,切薩皮克有望在與之合併後成爲最大的生產商 西南能源 SWN.n。
Lseg Forecast Gas Demand in the Lower 48, Including Exports, Would Ease From 92.5 Bcfd This Week to 91.6 Next Week.
Lseg預測,下48國的天然氣需求(包括出口)將從本週的92.5億立方英尺緩解至下週的91.6億立方英尺。
Gas Flows to the Seven Big U.S. LNG Export Plants Rose From an Average of 11.9 Bcfd in April to 12.7 Bcfd so Far in May With the Return of Freeport Lng's 2.1-Bcfd Plant in Texas. That Compares With a Monthly Record of 14.7 Bcfd in December.
美國七大液化天然氣出口廠的天然氣流量從4月份的平均119億立方英尺上升到5月份迄今爲止的127億立方英尺 自由港液化天然氣公司 德克薩斯州的 2.1-Bcfd 工廠。相比之下,12月份的月度創紀錄爲147億立方英尺。
|
Week Ended May 17 Actual |
Week Ended May 10 Actual |
Year Ago May 17 |
Five-Year Average May 17 |
|
U.S. Weekly Natgas Storage Change (Bcf): |
+78 |
+70 |
+97 |
+92 |
|
U.S. Total Natgas in Storage (Bcf): |
2,711 |
2,633 |
2,309 |
2,105 |
|
U.S. Total Storage Versus 5-Year Average |
28.8% |
30.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per Mmbtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2023 |
Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub Ngc1 |
2.83 |
2.84 |
2.30 |
2.66 |
3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (Ttf) Trnlttfmc1 |
11.38 |
11.03 |
9.97 |
13.04 |
14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (Jkm) Jkmc1 |
11.98 |
11.83 |
10.45 |
14.39 |
14.31 |
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Lseg Heating (Hdd), Cooling (Cdd) and Total (Tdd) Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. Gfs Hdds |
19 |
20 |
27 |
39 |
36 |
U.S. Gfs Cdds |
136 |
133 |
91 |
107 |
112 |
U.S. Gfs Tdds |
155 |
153 |
118 |
146 |
148 |
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Lseg U.S. Weekly Gfs Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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|
Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2019-2023) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (Bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
97.5 |
97.7 |
97.7 |
102.6 |
94.4 |
U.S. Imports From Canada |
7.1 |
754 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
104.6 |
105.1 |
104.7 |
110.0 |
101.9 |
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U.S. Demand (Bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.6 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports |
12.8 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
12.8 |
8.8 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.8 |
U.S. Residential |
5.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.9 |
U.S. Power Plant |
32.3 |
33.3 |
32.8 |
32.1 |
28.4 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.5 |
21.3 |
21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
71.1 |
707 |
70.1 |
69.6 |
69.4 |
Total U.S. Demand |
92.3 |
92.5 |
91.6 |
91.1 |
86.2 |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (Nwrfc) at the Dalles Dam |
Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
2022 % of Normal Actual |
2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-SEP |
79 |
81 |
83 |
107 |
81 |
Jan-Jul |
79 |
81 |
77 |
102 |
79 |
Oct-SEP |
81 |
82 |
76 |
103 |
81 |
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U.S. Weekly Power Generation Percent by Fuel - EIA |
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Week Ended May 24 |
Week Ended May 17 |
Week Ended May 10 |
Week Ended May 3 |
Week Ended Apr 26 |
Wind |
13 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
Solar |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Hydro |
8 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
38 |
40 |
41 |
40 |
37 |
Coal |
14 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
Nuclear |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
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Snl U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per Mmbtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
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Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl |
2.51 |
2.52 |
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Transco Z6 New York Ng-CG-NY-Snl |
1.99 |
1.97 |
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PG&E Citygate Ng-CG-Pge-Snl |
1.88 |
2.00 |
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Eastern Gas (Old Dominion South) Ng-Pcn-App-Snl |
1.76 |
1.75 |
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Chicago Citygate Ng-CG-CH-Snl |
1.84 |
1.94 |
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Algonquin Citygate Ng-CG-Bs-Snl |
2.03 |
2.05 |
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Socal Citygate Ng-Scl-Cgt-Snl |
1.18 |
1.50 |
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Waha Hub Ng-Wah-Wtx-Snl |
1.05 |
0.19 |
|||
Aeco Ng-Ash-Alb-Snl |
0.94 |
0.94 |
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Snl U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per Megawatt-Hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
|
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New England El-Pk-Npms-Snl |
42.50 |
38.25 |
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||
Pjm West El-Pk-Pjmw-Snl |
53.50 |
69.50 |
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ERCOT North El-Pk-Ertn-Snl |
21.25 |
29.75 |
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Mid C El-Pk-Midc-Snl |
18.75 |
13.50 |
|||
Palo Verde El-Pk-Plvd-Snl |
-6.25 |
-2.25 |
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SP-15 El-Pk-SP15-Snl |
-6.50 |
-4.50 |
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截至5月17日的一週實際情況 |
截至5月10日的一週實際情況 |
一年前的5月17日 |
五年平均值 5 月 17 日 |
|
美國每週天然氣儲量變化(Bcf): |
+78 |
+70 |
+97 |
+92 |
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美國天然氣儲存總量(Bcf): |
2,711 |
2,633 |
2,309 |
2,105 |
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美國總存儲空間與 5 年平均水平的對比 |
28.8% |
30.8% |
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全球天然氣基準期貨(每百萬英熱單位美元) |
當天 |
前一天 |
去年的這個月 |
2023 年上一年度平均值 |
五年平均值(2018-2022年) |
亨利·哈伯 Ngc1 |
2.83 |
2.84 |
2.30 |
2.66 |
3.60 |
所有權轉讓設施 (Ttf) trnlttfmc1 |
11.38 |
11.03 |
9.97 |
13.04 |
14.39 |
日本韓國市場 (Jkm) jkmc1 |
11.98 |
11.83 |
10.45 |
14.39 |
14.31 |
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腿部加熱 (Hdd)、冷卻 (Cdd) 和總學位 (Tdd) 天數 |
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兩週總預測 |
當天 |
前一天 |
前一年 |
10 年標準 |
30 年標準 |
美國 Gfs Hdds |
19 |
20 |
27 |
39 |
36 |
美國 Gfs Cdds |
136 |
133 |
91 |
107 |
112 |
美國 Gfs Tds |
155 |
153 |
118 |
146 |
148 |
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Lseg 美國每週 Gfs 供需預測 |
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|
前一週 |
本週 |
下週 |
去年的這個星期 |
五年(2019-2023)月平均值 |
美國供應 (Bcfd) |
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|
|
|
美國降低48乾產量 |
97.5 |
97.7 |
97.7 |
102.6 |
94.4 |
美國從加拿大的進口 |
7.1 |
754 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
美國液化天然氣進口 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
美國總供應量 |
104.6 |
105.1 |
104.7 |
110.0 |
101.9 |
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美國需求 (Bcfd) |
|
|
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|
美國對加拿大的出口 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
美國對墨西哥的出口 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
5.6 |
美國液化天然氣出口 |
12.8 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
12.8 |
8.8 |
美國商業 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.8 |
美國住宅 |
5.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.9 |
美國發電廠 |
32.3 |
33.3 |
32.8 |
32.1 |
28.4 |
美國工業 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.5 |
21.3 |
21.5 |
美國植物燃料 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
美國管道配送 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
美國汽車燃料 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
美國總消費 |
71.1 |
707 |
70.1 |
69.6 |
69.4 |
美國總需求 |
92.3 |
92.5 |
91.6 |
91.1 |
86.2 |
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位於達爾斯大壩的美國西北河流預報中心 (NWRFC) |
當天佔正常預測的百分比 |
前一天佔正常預測的百分比 |
2023 正常實際值的百分比 |
2022 年正常實際值的百分比 |
2021 年佔正常實際值的百分比 |
四月至九月 |
79 |
81 |
83 |
107 |
81 |
一月至七月 |
79 |
81 |
77 |
102 |
79 |
十月至九月 |
81 |
82 |
76 |
103 |
81 |
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按燃料劃分的美國每週發電百分比-EIA |
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截至5月24日的一週 |
截至5月17日的一週 |
截至5月10日的一週 |
截至5月3日的一週 |
截至4月26日的一週 |
風 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
太陽能 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
水電 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
其他 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
石油 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
天然氣 |
38 |
40 |
41 |
40 |
37 |
煤炭 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
核武器 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
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Snl 美國天然氣次日價格(每百萬英熱單位美元) |
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集線器 |
當天 |
前一天 |
|
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|
亨利·哈伯 Ng-W-Hh-Snl |
2.51 |
2.52 |
|
|
|
Transco Z6 紐約 NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.99 |
1.97 |
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|
PG&E 東薈城 ng-cg-pge-SNL |
1.88 |
2.00 |
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東方天然氣公司(舊自治領南部) Ng-Pcn-App-Snl |
1.76 |
1.75 |
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芝加哥東薈城 ng-cg-ch-snl |
1.84 |
1.94 |
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阿岡昆東薈城 ng-cg-bs-SNL |
2.03 |
2.05 |
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|
Socal 東薈城 Ng-Scl-Cgt-Snl |
1.18 |
1.50 |
|
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|
Waha Hub Ng-Wah-Wtx-Snl |
1.05 |
0.19 |
|||
Aeco Ng-Ash-Alb-Snl |
0.94 |
0.94 |
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Snl 美國電力次日價格(每兆瓦時美元) |
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集線器 |
當天 |
前一天 |
|
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|
新英格蘭 El-Pk-Npms-Snl |
42.50 |
38.25 |
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||
Pjm West El-Pk-Pjmw-Snl |
53.50 |
69.50 |
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|
|
ERCOT North El-Pk-Ertn-Snl |
21.25 |
29.75 |
|
|
|
中級 C El-Pk-Midc-Snl |
18.75 |
13.50 |
|||
帕洛佛得角 El-Pk-plvd-Snl |
-6.25 |
-2.25 |
|
|
|
SP-15 el-pk-sp15-SNL |
-6.50 |
-4.50 |
|
|
(Reporting by Scott Disavino;
Editing by Alison Williams and Marguerita Choy)
(斯科特·迪薩維諾報道;
由艾莉森·威廉姆斯和瑪格麗塔·蔡編輯)
((Scott.disavino@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: Scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@Reuters.net))
((Scott.disavino@Thomsonreuters.com;+1 332 219 1922;路透社消息: Scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@Reuters.net))
For Gas Data on Lseg's Eikon Type Energy in the Search Bar and Then Go to the Gas Drop Down and the North America Drop Down.
For Interactive Map, Type 'interactive Map' in the Box at Upper Left of the Eikon Terminal
For Graphics on Baker Hughes Rig Counts, See: Http://Graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/Rigcount/Index.html
For Next-Day Snl U.S. Gas Prices, See: 0#Snl-Ng
For Next-Day Snl U.S. Power Prices, See: 0#Snl-Pwr
For U.S. Natgas Price and Storage Polls, See: Ngas/Poll
For U.S. Nuclear Power Outages, See: Nuke/
For U.S. Northwest Hydro Power Report, See: Nwrfc
For U.S./Canada Natural Gas Rig Count Vs Henry Hub Futures Price, See: Http://Tmsnrt.rs/2Et9K44
For the U.S. Natural Gas Speed Guide, See: Usgas
For the U.S. Power Speed Guide, See: Uspower
To Determine Cftc Managed Money Net Position Add (Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023651Mnet) Plus (Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023391Mnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 303565Bmnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 303565Cmnet Divided by Four)
Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3Cftc023651
Nymex Henry Hub Futures Only 0#1Cftc023651
Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3Cftc023391
Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 0#3Cftc03565B
Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 0#3Cftc03565C
在搜索欄中獲取有關Lseg的Eikon類型能源的天然氣數據,然後轉到天然氣下拉列表和北美下拉列表。
對於交互式地圖,在Eikon終端左上角的框中輸入 “交互式地圖”
有關貝克休斯鑽機數量的圖片,請參見: Http: //graphics.thomsonReuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
有關次日 Snl 美國天然氣價格,請參閱: 0 #Snl-Ng
有關次日 Snl 美國電價,請參閱: 0 #Snl-Pwr
有關美國天然氣價格和儲量調查,請參閱: Ngas/民意調查
有關美國核電中斷的信息,請參閱: 核彈/
如需查看《美國西北水電報告》,請參閱: NWRFC
有關美國/加拿大天然氣鑽機數量與亨利樞紐期貨價格的對比,請參閱: Http: //tmsnrt.rs/2et9k44
有關美國天然氣速度指南,請參閱: 美國天然氣公司
有關美國功率速度指南,請參閱: Uspower
確定美國商品期貨交易委員會管理資金淨頭寸(紐約商品交易所):Henry Hub 期權和期貨合計 3023651Mnet) Plus(Ice Henry Hub 期權和期貨合併) 3023391Mnet 除以四)+(紐約商品交易所)Henry Hub 掉期期權和期貨合計 303565Bmnet 除以四)+(紐約商品交易所 Henry Hub)倒數第二輪天然氣互換 303565Cmnet 除以四)
紐約商品交易所亨利中心期權和期貨合併 0 #3Cftc023651
僅限紐約商品交易所亨利中心期貨 0 #1Cftc023651
Ice Henry Hub期權和期貨合併 0 #3Cftc023391
紐約商品交易所 Henry Hub 互換期權和期貨合併 0 #3Cftc03565B
紐約商品交易所 Henry Hub 倒數第二筆天然氣互換 0 #3Cftc03565C