By Caroline Valetkevitch
作者：卡羅琳·瓦萊特克維奇
New York, May 22 (Reuters) - The Standard & Poor's 500 Will End the Year Near Current Levels, but Strong Stock Market Gains so Far in 2024 Have Some Strategists Saying the Index Is at Risk of a Correction in Coming Months, According to a Reuters Poll Released Wednesday.
紐約，5月22日（路透社）— 路透社週三發佈的一項民意調查顯示，標準普爾500指數將在年底接近當前水平，但2024年迄今爲止股市的強勁漲勢使一些策略師表示，該指數在未來幾個月內面臨修正的風險。
By Year-End, the Benchmark Index .spx Will Be at 5,302, According to the Median Forecast of 50 Strategists Polled May 13-22. That Is Slightly Below Tuesday's Close of 5,321.41.
到年底，基準指數 .spx 根據5月13日至22日接受調查的50位策略師的中位數預測，將達到5,302人。這略低於週二的收盤價5,321.41。
That Latest Prediction Is Still Above the 5,100 Year-End Level Forecast in a Reuters Poll in February.
最新的預測仍高於路透社2月份民意調查中預測的5,100年終水平。
the S&P 500 Has Gained Over 11% so Far This Year and All Three Major U.S. Stock Indexes Have Risen to Records Recently, Thanks in Part to Economic Data That Has Eased Inflation Concerns, Fuelling Bets That the Federal Reserve Will Start Cutting Interest Rates Later in the Year.
標普500指數今年迄今已上漲超過11％，美國三大股指最近均創歷史新高，這在一定程度上要歸功於經濟數據緩解了通脹擔憂，這加劇了人們對聯儲局將在今年晚些時候開始降息的押注。
The Poll Has the Dow Jones Industrial Average .dji Finishing This Year at 40,765 After the Index Crossed the 40,000 Level for the First Time Last Week and Closed Tuesday at 39,872.99.
該民意調查顯示了道瓊斯工業平均指數 .dji 該指數上週首次突破40,000點並於週二收於39,872.99美元后，今年收於40,765點。
While Federal Reserve Officials Have Hinted U.S. Interest Rates May Not Fall Anytime Soon, Many Investors Still Expect the Fed Will Be Able to Cut Rates Twice This Year.
而 聯儲局 官員們暗示美國利率可能不會很快下降，許多投資者仍預計聯儲局今年將能夠兩次降息。
Strategists Who Answered an Additional Question Were Almost Evenly Split on Whether a Correction Was Likely in U.S. Stocks Over the Next Three Months. Eight of 15 Respondents Said a Correction Was Unlikely, While Seven Said It Was Likely.
回答另一個問題的策略師對未來三個月美國股市是否可能出現修正的看法幾乎各不相同。15位受訪者中有8位表示不太可能進行修正，而7位受訪者表示可能進行修正。
"Most of the Gains Have Already Been Gotten," Said Robert Pavlik, Senior Portfolio Manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut, Who Still Sees the S&P 500 Climbing a Bit Further to End the Year at 5,575.
康涅狄格州費爾菲爾德的達科他財富高級投資組合經理羅伯特·帕夫利克說：“大部分收益已經獲得，” 他仍然認爲標準普爾500指數將進一步上漲，年底達到5,575點。
With the Fed, He Said, "My Sense Is They Don't Let US Down, Meaning They Cut Rates" This Year.
對於聯儲局，他說：“我的感覺是他們今年沒有讓美國失望，這意味着他們降息”。
Projections for Strong Earnings Are a Positive. Analysts Expect Overall S&P 500 Earnings to Rise 10.4% In 2024, Lseg Data Showed.
對強勁收益的預測是積極的。Lseg的數據顯示，分析師預計，標準普爾500指數的整體收益將在2024年增長10.4％。
But Stocks Are Also at High Valuation Levels. the S&P 500 Trades at a Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio - a Commonly Used Metric to Value Stocks - of 20.9, Well Above the Index's Historic Average of 15.7, According to Lseg Datastream.
但是股票也處於高估值水平。根據Lseg Datastream的數據，標準普爾500指數的遠期市盈率（衡量股票估值的常用指標）爲20.9，遠高於該指數的歷史平均水平15.7。
Evercore ISI, Which Has a 4,750 Year-End Forecast for the S&P 500, Expects U.S. Earnings Estimates to Weaken.
Evercore ISI對標準普爾500指數的年終預測爲4,750點，預計美國的收益預期將減弱。
"Given the Slowing in the Economy - and It's Not Rampant Slowing but Noticeable - It Creates a Greater Probability That Earnings Estimates Are Just Too Optimistic," Said Julian Emanuel, Evercore Isi's Senior Managing Director for Equity, Derivatives and Quantitative Strategy.
Evercore Isi股票、衍生品和量化策略高級董事總經理朱利安·伊曼紐爾表示：“鑑於經濟放緩——放緩並不嚴重但引人注目——這使得收益預期過於樂觀的可能性更大。”
He Added: "It Wouldn't Be an Issue IF It Wasn't for the Fact That Valuations Are Where They Are."
他補充說：“如果不是因爲估值不變，那就不是問題了。”
Investors Are Keen to See Whether the Market Can Sustain Its Gains Tied to Optimism Over Artificial Intelligence Developments.
投資者渴望看到市場能否維持與對人工智能發展的樂觀情緒相關的漲勢。
All Eyes Will Be on AI Chip Leader Nvidia Nvda.o When It Reports Quarterly Results After the Closing Bell on Wednesday.
所有人的目光都將集中在人工智能芯片領導者英偉達身上 nvda.o 什麼時候 報告 週三收盤後的季度業績。
(Other Stories From the Reuters Q2 Global Stock Markets Poll Package: NL4N3Ho1O6)
（路透社第二季度全球股市民意調查套餐中的其他報道： nl4n3ho1o6)
(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Additional Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, Stephen Culp, Sinead Carew and Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional Polling by Pranoy Krishna, Indradip Ghosh, Mumal Rathore and Purujit Arun in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill)
（卡羅琳·瓦萊特克維奇的報道；查克·米科拉伊扎克、斯蒂芬·庫爾普、西內德·卡魯和奇布克·奧古在紐約的補充報道；普拉諾伊·克里希納、英德拉迪普·戈什、穆馬爾·拉索爾和普魯吉特·阿倫在班加羅爾的補充民意調查；金·科吉爾編輯）