Huatai Securities released a research report saying that in the next 2 months, if US inflation continues to fall, the labor market continues to cool down, and/or service consumption continues to slow down, the Fed may still cut interest rates in July. Otherwise, considering the upcoming general election, the “threshold” for cutting interest rates after September may be even higher. Therefore, data changes over the next few months will determine when the Federal Reserve will open the window to cut interest rates. Huatai Securities believes that the US economy is resilient in medium- to long-term growth, so even if the Federal Reserve is able to start a cycle of interest rate cuts in July, the probability that it will cut interest rates continuously is low, and the end point of this round of interest rate cuts may not be as low as the bitmap indicates.