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分析师:交易员对美联储能否实现通胀目标心存疑虑 凸显CPI风险

Analyst: Traders' doubts about whether the Fed can achieve its inflation target highlight the risk of CPI

Breakings ·  Apr 9 10:59

Analysts said that before this week's inflation data was released, especially after the US non-farm payrolls data was added to a long list of better-than-expected data, the US debt market was clearly a bit fearful. Bond traders' inflation expectations have soared this year, indicating that there are doubts about whether the Federal Reserve can achieve its inflation target, which means that yield risks tend to rise before the CPI data is released on Wednesday. Although the pace of consumer price increases is expected to slow, even the most optimistic economists still predict that the overall year-on-year inflation rate will be higher than 3%. Prices of oil and other commodities have soared, and supply disruptions may also disrupt the trend of slowing commodity inflation. This helps explain why the 2-year break-even inflation rate has climbed to around 30 basis points lower than the February CPI. If the average inflation rate actually reaches about 2.85% of what is currently anticipated for inflation-protected bonds, then the Federal Reserve may not be able to reach its target during this time. This raises doubts about the ability of policy makers to meet expectations of cutting interest rates six times before the end of next year.

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