The China Financial Research Report pointed out that sorting through the conditions for the Fed's interest rate cuts in history revealed that either the risk of economic recession and deflation increased significantly; or there was a major “black swan” in the financial market, which may evolve into a financial systemic risk. Taking history as a guide, we think the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates easily if there are no greater financial risks than now. This time, the Federal Reserve may adopt a combination of “high interest rates+temporary expansion” to deal with the double challenges of inflation and financial risk. So why is the market expecting interest rate cuts so much? One explanation is to hope that “Fed put options” (Fed put) will return to the “good era” where stocks and bonds were bullish and asset prices rose across the board.