下个AI？减肥药概念大热不退！除诺和诺德(NVO)和礼来(LLY)两大巨头外还有哪些机会存在？

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FX168財經視頻欄目 Sep 22, 2023 15:37 · 24.9k Views

今天想来关注的这条赛道就是今年自人工智能之后，又爆火的一条赛道——减肥药。年初以来像礼来(LLY)和诺和诺德(NVO)这样的医药巨头都出现了不错的涨势。那我们就来看看这条赛道，除了像诺和诺德以及礼来这样的巨头公司，还有哪些公司也是可以关注一下的？

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Transcript

  • 00:00 Hello
  • 00:00 Today is Thursday, September 21, 2023. Welcome to the US stock market every day
  • 00:04 Hello everyone, I'm Chen Wei, financial analyst at FX 68 Finance Group
  • 00:08 The US stock market suffered another severe setback on Thursday. The strong performance of the number of initial jobless claims
  • 00:12 It further amplified the negative impact of the hawkish suspension of interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve
  • 00:16 Plus the American auto workers' strike
  • 00:18 Not solved yet, increasing the risk of inflation to a certain extent
  • 00:21 At the same time, the US government is likely to shut down again at the end of the month. This has caused the panic index to rise sharply
  • 00:26 The S&P 500 index closed down 1.65% today, creating the biggest one-day decline in half a year
  • 00:32 Then starting tomorrow, a number of Federal Reserve officials will speak
  • 00:36 We need to be careful. If they continue to release hawkish positions, this is about market sentiment
  • 00:40 It will also cause constant stress
  • 00:42 Investors are better off being cautious these days
  • 00:45 In terms of individual stocks
  • 00:46 The track I want to focus on today is a racetrack diet pill that has been popular this year since artificial intelligence
  • 00:52 The star stock here is Novo Nordisk, which is headquartered in Denmark
  • 00:56 It is also due to the popularity of the diet medicine circuit
  • 00:58 Since the beginning of the year, pharmaceutical giants like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk
  • 01:02 They all showed good gains. Among them, Novo Nordisk surpassed Luwei Minxuan Group earlier this month
  • 01:08 In other words, LVMH Group has become the company with the largest market capitalization in Europe
  • 01:12 Well, according to J.P. Morgan's latest forecast, until 2030
  • 01:15 Driven by the two giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, how about the annual sales volume of GLP ONE similar drugs
  • 01:21 It will exceed 100 billion dollars
  • 01:23 Because, under the social media boom, the usage rate of glp one weight loss drugs
  • 01:28 It is rising rapidly
  • 01:29 Well, we saw that Eli Lilly's results for the second quarter and first half of the year announced last month were very strong and exceeded expectations
  • 01:35 Compared to the 7% year-on-year increase in revenue in the first half of the year, how about the 28% year-on-year increase in revenue in the second quarter
  • 01:41 More dazzling
  • 01:42 Mainly due to sales promotion of GLP One weight loss drugs
  • 01:47 Also known as Monzaro
  • 01:49 What about this drug, which was approved by the FDA in May 2022
  • 01:51 After the listing, the volume continued. The sales volume for the first half of this year reached 1,548 billion US dollars
  • 01:56 Well, Li Lai predicts that the entire 2023 sales volume of this drug is expected to exceed 4 billion US dollars
  • 02:04 That Eli Lilly immediately raised its 2023 performance guide by $2.2 billion
  • 02:09 Annual revenue is expected to reach $33.4 to $33.9 billion
  • 02:13 In addition, Novo Nordisk also released the trial data for the third phase in August
  • 02:17 What about proving their glp one drug, smeglutide
  • 02:21 Can bring cardiovascular benefits to obese patients
  • 02:25 So let's take a look at this track. Other than giants like Novo Nordisk and Lilly, what other companies are there
  • 02:30 You can also pay attention to it
  • 02:32 What about Monzaro due to the currently popular weight loss elixir Novo and Nord's Smeglutide and Eli Lilly
  • 02:38 The basic principle is that after taking it, it can lower blood sugar levels and increase satiety
  • 02:42 This helps control appetite and weight, and therefore reduces the way consumers consume food
  • 02:48 For example, it will reduce the number of meals and snacks, as well as reduce the intake of alcohol and carbonated drinks
  • 02:54 So, Morgan Stanley thinks this will be for companies like Simply Good Foods and Starbucks in the US stock market
  • 03:01 It brings some benefits, but it will have some negative effects on stocks such as Hershey's and Domino's Pizza
  • 03:06 In addition, we also know that if the number of people losing weight expands, even though weight loss itself has some risks
  • 03:11 But similarly, it will also reduce the incidence of many related diseases. This is for some other healthcare stocks
  • 03:17 It may have some negative effects
  • 03:19 For example, stocks such as Rhys Megamare and Bangmei. The former mainly provides treatment plans for sleep apnea
  • 03:26 The latter, on the other hand, produces knee and hip implants to solve problems caused by osteoarthritis
  • 03:32 All of these conditions are closely related to obesity
  • 03:36 Also, companies related to bariatric surgery will also be negatively impeded by the popularity of diet pills
  • 03:41 For example, Intuitive Surgery, a surgical robot manufacturer
  • 03:44 It has been publicly stated that patients' interest in weight loss drugs is hurting demand for surgery
  • 03:49 And Teleflex, which made stomach stitchers, also said
  • 03:53 Weight loss drugs are reducing demand for their products
  • 03:56 What is more controversial is the diabetes device manufacturer, which is a segmented racetrack
  • 04:00 On the one hand, some companies expect it because of the popularity of weight loss drugs
  • 04:04 It will reduce the incidence of diabetes, especially type 2 diabetes, which is adversely affected by
  • 04:09 Includes companies that provide insulin injection systems, such as Silver Repair and Tandem Dabidis Care
  • 04:15 But on the other hand, what if it's a company that makes blood sugar monitoring devices
  • 04:19 May be used to measure the effects of diet pills on the body
  • 04:23 Then this kind of company is expected to receive some support
  • 04:26 Like Dekang Healthcare and Abbott
  • 04:29 Then consider that after taking weight loss drugs, people's attitudes towards life may change significantly
  • 04:34 Some fitness-related products and services will usher in an increase in demand
  • 04:38 For example, individual stocks on tracks such as fitness equipment, fitness software, wearable devices, and gym chains
  • 04:44 You can also get a positive boost
  • 04:46 Taking diet pills at the same time will cause some side effects, but for some sectors, side effects
  • 04:51 Maybe it's just a benefit
  • 04:52 The most obvious one is that diet pills, which are currently popular, generally suppress appetite and slow intestinal motility, can easily be caused by
  • 05:00 Side effects include nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea
  • 05:02 Then this is why Barclays thinks, ah, in order to reduce the pain caused by side effects
  • 05:07 Digestive drugs and dietary supplements may usher in an increase in demand
  • 05:12 For example, about 1/5 of sales come from Helion, a digestive health drug, is the most likely beneficiary
  • 05:18 And when you provide probiotic products, you can also reap the benefits
  • 05:22 Finally, considering the current boom in diet pills, future demand has not subsided
  • 05:26 A trend that continues to rise may be difficult to change
  • 05:28 Therefore, there is also a chance that the stock prices of suppliers of diet pills will continue to rise
  • 05:33 According to some sources, ah, in order to meet the rapid increase in market demand, Novo Nordisk has hired a company called Thermerfischer to help them produce weight loss drugs
  • 05:42 At the same time, Conterent is also expected to get more orders
  • 05:45 As can be seen, as the weight loss drug duo Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk continue to grow
  • 05:50 Other than being able to follow them, there are also a lot
  • 05:52 You can also pay more attention to multiple related tracks and related individual stocks
  • 05:56 Maybe you can find investment opportunities that have been overlooked but have huge potential
  • 06:01 This is also a place where we can do more homework when we invest in many popular fields
  • 06:05 Then for everyone's reference
  • 06:08 What about tomorrow
  • 06:08 In terms of economic data, what we can focus on is retail sales in Canada
  • 06:11 At the same time, you can also pay attention to the various US PMI indices
  • 06:14 This includes services PMI indices such as the Composite PMI Index
  • 06:18 Also, the manufacturing PMI index can help us better reference America's economic prospects
  • 06:23 At the same time, a number of Federal Reserve officials are about to deliver speeches tomorrow
  • 06:26 This includes things like San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly Minyapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari
  • 06:32 Also, Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins
  • 06:34 Of course, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will also deliver a speech tomorrow
  • 06:38 Therefore, interested friends can pay more attention
  • 06:40 OK, that's all for today. Thanks for watching FX 68
  • 06:44 For more information, please download the FX 68 Finance App from the Apple Store or Google Play Store
  • 06:49 Thank you all, see you tomorrow