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复旦微电(688385):盈利能力持续提升 高可靠业务放量带动业绩高增
Fudan Micro Power (688385): continuous improvement of profitability, high reliable business volume leads to high performance

华创证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

事项: 2022 年8 月15 日,公司发布2022 年半年度报告: 1)2022H1:营业收入17.02 亿元,同比+50.83%;实现毛利率65.00%,同比+9.77pct;实现归母净利润5.31 亿元,同比+172.99%;实现扣非后归母净利润5.19 亿元,同比+220.88%;2)2022Q2:营业收入9.27 亿元,同比+47.85%;实现毛利率66.18%,同比+7.67pct;实现归母净利润2.98 亿元,同比+175.68%;实现扣非后归母净利润2.93 亿元,同比+223.28%。 评论: 业绩持续高增长,高可靠业务快速放量带动公司盈利能力显著提升。公司2022Q2 实现营业收入9.27 亿元,同比+47.85%,环比+19.43%。分业务看,22Q1/22Q2 公司安全与识别芯片业务收入分别为2.15/2.46 亿元,环比+14.4%;非挥发性存储器业务收入分别为2.46/2.41 亿元,环比-2.0%;智能电表芯片业务收入分别为1.02/1.74 亿元,环比+70.6%;FPGA 及其他芯片业务收入分别为1.71/2.07 亿元,环比+21.1%。在产品结构改善下,公司2022Q2 毛利率66.18%,同比+7.67pct,环比+2.59pct。我们认为未来高可靠业务将成为公司业绩的主要驱动力,同时MCU 等业务持续突破,公司未来业绩有望保持高增长。 公司FPGA 芯片技术不断突破,有望持续受益于下游需求旺盛。公司是国内最早推出亿门级FPGA 产品的厂商,产品持续放量,截至2022 年中,公司累计向超过500 家客户销售相关FPGA 产品,考虑到2022H1 公司FPGA 及其他产品仅实现销售收入3.78 亿元,我们认为公司FPGA 产品尚处于放量前期,未来收入有望保持高增长。历史上看,公司高可靠产品毛利率超过90%,公司技术持续突破、产品不断切入新领域,收入放量有望带动业绩高增长。 产品结构持续优化升级,公司非挥发存储器、MCU 等业务显著受益。2021年公司安全与识别芯片、非挥发存储器、MCU 三大产品线均有部分料号切入汽车电子领域,充分说明公司多年积累的技术优势开始显现;其中MCU 产品线系列产品在智能水气热表、智能家居、物联网应用等场景中拓展良好,正努力开拓汽车电子市场,公司第一款车规级MCU 完成AEC-Q100 考核并进入市场推广,预计2022 年下半年进入量产阶段。远期来看,公司把握机遇积极开拓市场与新客户,产品结构和客户结构持续优化升级,未来业绩值得期待。 投资建议:公司作为老牌IC 设计公司,持续受益于行业高景气,同时FPGA已进入收获期。我们预计公司2022-2024 年归母净利润为10.01/13.70/17.62 亿元,对应EPS 为1.23/1.68/2.16 元。参考行业可比公司估值及公司自身业绩增速,同时考虑到公司利润受股权激励费影响,我们给予2022 年60 倍PE,对应目标价73.74 元 /股,维持“强推”评级;给予公司AH 股折价率为60%,即给予港股2022 年36 倍PE,对应目标价51.43 港元/股,维持“强推”评级。 风险提示:下游需求不及预期;新产品推出不及预期;产能支持不及预期。

Items: On August 15, 2022, the company released its half-yearly report for 2022: 1) 2022H1: operating income 1.702 billion yuan, year-on-year + 50.83%; gross profit 65.00%, year-on-year + 9.77pct; net profit 531 million yuan, + 172.99%; net profit after deduction is 519 million yuan, + 220.88%; 2) 2022Q2: operating income 927 million yuan, year-on-year + 47.85%; gross profit 66.18%, year-on-year + 7.67pct The net profit of returning to the mother was 298 million yuan, + 175.68% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit of deducting non-return was 293 million yuan, + 223.28% compared with the same period last year. Comments: The performance continues to grow high, and the rapid expansion of highly reliable business leads to a significant improvement in the company's profitability. The company's 2022Q2 realized operating income of 927 million yuan, + 47.85% compared with the same period last year, and + 19.43% compared with the previous year. From the perspective of business, the business income of security and identification chip of 22Q1/22Q2 is 2150.246 million yuan, month-on-month ratio + 14.4%, non-volatile memory business income is 246pm, month-on-month income is-2.0%, smart meter chip business income is 102pm, month-on-month income is + 70.6%, respectively. The income of FPGA and other chip businesses is respectively 171 million yuan, month-on-month + 21.1%. Under the improvement of product structure, the company's 2022Q2 gross profit margin is 66.18%, year-on-year + 7.67pct, month-on-month + 2.59pct. We believe that highly reliable business will be the main driver of the company's performance in the future, while business breakthroughs such as MCU will continue, and the company's future performance is expected to maintain high growth. The company's FPGA chip technology continues to make breakthroughs and is expected to continue to benefit from the strong demand downstream. The company is the earliest manufacturer to launch billion-level FPGA products in China, and the products continue to sell. As of mid-2022, the company has cumulatively sold related FPGA products to more than 500 customers. Considering that the sales revenue of 2022H1 FPGA and other products is only 378 million yuan, we think that the company's FPGA products are still in the early stage of volume, and future revenue is expected to maintain high growth. Historically, the gross profit margin of the company's highly reliable products is more than 90%, the company continues to make breakthroughs in technology, products continue to cut into new areas, and revenue volume is expected to lead to high performance growth. The product structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded, and the company's non-volatile memory, MCU and other businesses have benefited significantly. In 2021, some material numbers of the company's three major product lines of safety and identification chip, non-volatile memory and MCU have been cut into the field of automotive electronics, which fully shows that the technological advantages accumulated by the company over the years are beginning to appear. Among them, MCU product line products expand well in intelligent hydrothermal meters, smart homes, Internet of things applications and other scenarios, and are making efforts to open up the automotive electronics market, the company's first car specification-level MCU has completed the AEC-Q100 assessment and entered the market promotion, and is expected to enter the mass production stage in the second half of 2022. In the long term, the company will seize the opportunity to actively open up the market and new customers, the product structure and customer structure will be continuously optimized and upgraded, and the future performance is worth looking forward to. Investment advice: as a veteran IC design company, the company continues to benefit from the high prosperity of the industry, while FPGA has entered the harvest period. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 10.01max 1.370max RMB 1.762 million, corresponding to EPS 1.23max 1.68max 2.16RMB. With reference to the industry comparable company valuation and the company's own performance growth, and considering that the company's profits are affected by equity incentive fees, we maintain a "strong push" rating of 60 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 73.74 yuan per share, and a "strong push" rating of 60% on the company's AH shares, that is, 36 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 51.43 Hong Kong dollars per share. Risk tips: downstream demand is not as expected; new product launches are not as expected; capacity support is not as expected.

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