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京东集团-SW(9618.HK)深度研究报告:供应链建设厚积薄发 全品类扩张飞轮渐起
JD.com Group-SW (9618.HK) in-depth research report: supply chain construction accumulates abruptly and the flywheel of full category expansion is gradually rising.

华创证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  我们认为,站在当前时点看京东价值主要有以下三个方面:1)用户数存在约3 亿增长空间。截至22Q1 京东年度活跃用户数5.8 亿,同期拼多多8.8 亿,阿里9.0 亿,京东在做高核心网购人群粘性的基础上,仍有下沉用户空间;2)提前布局供应链,无需补短板。2007 年起公司就自建物流体系,零售效率极高,目前已实现T+0/T+1/T+N 日全时段履约覆盖。在高标准化、高客单产品上,供应链树立高壁垒,夯实平台价值,稳健增长可期;3)品类扩张与购买频次构成正向飞轮。日用百货类商品收入增速快于3C 家电,占比近4成,带动女性消费者占比提升、购买频次提高,从而促进更多商家入驻,京东超市(自营为主)引入370 多家线下商超(沃尔玛、华润、永辉等),极大扩充SKU 数目,全品类零售版图完善;合作奢品与新消费品牌,商户质量与数量同步提高。   渠道与供应链:自营树立壁垒,发力线下家电市场。凭借高效的物流服务(京东物流、德邦快递、达达集团提供全时效配送服务)和良好的售后体验,京东自营积累口碑好评,PLUS 会员留存高客单用户。自营收入以3C 家电品类为主,市场份额列位全渠道第一。近年来全面布局线下家电市场,在不同等级城市开设门店,高线提品质,低线提渗透。   用户端:拓展下沉和女性用户,带来增长新动力。京东先后推出京喜(以微信小程序为主阵地,主打低价好货)和京喜拼拼(社区团购),战略目光投向广阔的下沉市场,成功扭转18 年用户增速下滑的瓶颈。多元丰富的品类结构收获了大量女性客群,悦己消费为主,贡献度提高,推动平台GMV 增长。   商户端:POP 平台生态建设完备,广告和物流服务赋能商户。广告层面,京东与腾讯、今日头条、百度、搜狐、新浪等媒体合作,推出“京X 计划”,在站外平台开设购物入口和广告资源位,吸收海量流量;此外,站内数字营销平台京准通提供多样精准的广告工具;物流层面,2017 年起京东物流开启对外服务,五大产品矩阵凝聚强大配送能力,外部客户收入贡献近6 成。商户数量和质量得到提升,尤其吸引250 多家国际大牌入驻奢品板块,涵盖Louis Vuitton、Bvlgari、Dior、Celine 等,高端需求得到满足。   投资建议:我们预计2022-2024 年公司实现营业收入 1.1/1.3/1.5 万亿元,同比增长15.7%/19.3%/15.3%;实现Non-GAAP 归母净利润141/246/346 亿元,Non-GAAP 归母净利率1.3%/1.9%/2.3%,对应Non-GAAP EPS 4.5/7.9/11.1 元/股。采用分部估值法对京东进行估值。京东零售1P 业务预计中短期内维持1%-2%的经营利润率,给予23 年该板块15xPE,对应23 年市值3582 亿港元,折算到22 年市值约3207 亿港元;京东零售3P 业务品类扩张,带动用户增长和购买频次提高,辅助以提前布局的供应链体系,POP 平台生态价值凸显,给予该部分23 年24xPE,对应市值7486 亿港元,折算到22 年市值6704 亿港元;京东物流(剔除向京东零售提供供应链解决方案等服务产生的收入)外部一体化供应链客户数量逐年增长,客单价提升,给予23 年0.3xPS,京东集团持股京东物流63.56%,对应市值257 亿港元,折算到22 年市值为230 亿港元。综上,公司22 年目标市值10141 亿港元,对应目标价324.7 港元/股,首次覆盖,给予“推荐”评级。   风险提示:疫情反复超预期,宏观经济增长不及预期,互联网监管趋严,品类扩张不及预期,物流和新业务盈利改善缓慢。

We believe that the value of JD.com from the current point of view mainly has the following three aspects: 1) there is room for about 300 million growth in the number of users. As of 22Q1 JD.com 's annual active users are 580 million, while Pinduoduo 880 million and BABA 900 million in the same period, JD.com still has sinking user space on the basis of improving the stickiness of the core online shopping crowd; 2) lay out the supply chain in advance without making up for its shortcomings. Since 2007, the company has built its own logistics system with high retail efficiency. At present, it has achieved full-time T+0/T+1/T+N compliance coverage. In the high standardization, high customer order products, the supply chain sets up high barriers, tamp platform value, and steady growth is expected; 3) category expansion and purchase frequency constitute a positive flywheel. The growth rate of daily department store income is faster than 3C home appliances, accounting for nearly 40%, leading to an increase in the proportion of female consumers and an increase in purchase frequency, thus promoting the entry of more businesses. JD.com supermarket (mainly self-operated) introduced more than 370 offline merchants (Walmart Inc, China Resources, Yonghui, etc.), greatly expanded the number of SKU, improved the layout of full-product retail; cooperative luxury goods and new consumer brands, merchants' quality and quantity improved simultaneously. Channel and supply chain: self-set up barriers to develop the offline home appliance market. With efficient logistics services (JD Logistics, Inc., Debang Express, Dada Nexus Limited to provide full-time distribution services) and good after-sales experience, JD.com accumulated good reputation, while PLUS members retained high customer single users. Self-income is mainly 3C home appliances, and its market share ranks first in all channels. In recent years, a comprehensive layout of offline home appliance market, set up stores in different levels of cities, high-quality line, low-line penetration. Client: expand sinking and female users, bring new impetus to growth. JD.com successively launched Jingxi (with WeChat Mini Programs as the main position, focusing on low-cost and good goods) and Jingxi (community group purchase), with a strategic focus on a broad sinking market, successfully reversing the bottleneck of declining user growth in the past 18 years. The diversified and rich category structure has harvested a large number of female customers, giving priority to their own consumption, increasing their contribution, and promoting the growth of the platform GMV. Merchant side: POP platform ecological construction is complete, advertising and logistics services enable merchants. At the advertising level, JD.com partnered with Tencent, Jinri Toutiao, Baidu, Inc., Sohu.com Ltd, Sina and other media to launch the "Beijing X Plan" to set up shopping entrances and advertising resource bits on the off-site platform to absorb massive traffic; in addition, in-site digital marketing platform Jingzhuntong provides a variety of accurate advertising tools At the logistics level, JD Logistics, Inc. has started external services since 2017, the five major product matrices have strong distribution capabilities, and the income of external customers has contributed nearly 60%. The quantity and quality of merchants have been improved, especially attracting more than 250 international brands to enter the luxury sector, including Louis Vuitton, Bvlgari, Dior, Celine, etc., high-end demand has been met. Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating income of 1.1 trillion yuan in 2022-2024, an increase of 15.7%, 19.3% and 15.3% over the same period last year. The net profit of Non-GAAP homing is 141, 246, 34.6 billion yuan, and the net interest rate of Non-GAAP is 1.3%, 1.9%, 2.3%, corresponding to Non-GAAP EPS 4.5, 7.9 and 11.1 yuan per share. The segment valuation method is used to value JD.com. JD.com 's retail 1P business is expected to maintain an operating profit margin of 1% mi 2% in the short to medium term, giving the sector a 23-year 15xPE, corresponding to a 23-year market capitalization of HK $358.2 billion, or about HK $320.7 billion in 22 years. The expansion of JD.com 's retail 3P business category has led to user growth and increased purchase frequency, which is assisted by the advance layout of the supply chain system. The ecological value of the POP platform is highlighted, giving this part 23-year 24xPE, corresponding to a market value of HK $748.6 billion, equivalent to a 22-year market value of HK $670.4 billion. JD Logistics, Inc. (excluding income generated by providing supply chain solutions and other services to JD.com Retail) the number of external integrated supply chain customers has increased year by year, and the customer unit price has increased year by year. JD.com Group holds 63.56% of JD Logistics, Inc., corresponding to a market capitalization of HK $25.7 billion, which translates to a 22-year market capitalization of HK $23 billion. To sum up, the company has a 22-year target market capitalization of HK $1.0141 trillion, with a "recommended" rating corresponding to the target price of HK $324.7 per share for the first time. Risk tips: the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations, macroeconomic growth fell short of expectations, Internet regulation became stricter, category expansion was less than expected, and logistics and new business profits improved slowly.

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