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京东集团-SW(09618.HK):利润端表现稳健 全渠道业务势能依旧
JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK): the profit side performs steadily and omni-channel business potential remains the same.

中泰证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  核心观点:   1)全渠道业务为公司发展的重中之重,发展仍然处于早期,预计将保持高于零售大盘增长的趋势:近年来,传统零售的业态随着消费者习惯的改变不断完善,尤其是商超品类呈现线上线下全渠道的特征,消费者对于各品类的信息趋于全触点化。目前京东的全渠道战略已初有成效,全渠道业务占集团收入和集团GMV 都在10%左右。尤其是到家和即时配送业务持续高速发展,在提升用户消费体验、带来更高效便捷同城服务的同时,也深度连接线下的实体企业,为合作的品牌与商户带来用户及收入的增量。   2)新业务更为聚焦,战略性舍弃一些亏损较大的城市业务或使得京东新业务UE 转正的节点提前到来:对于京东来说,2022 年首要的目标为保证可持续发展,促进利润及现金流的健康增长。所以京东对新业务进行了调整,缩减至目前的2 个省市,对短期盈利希望小,变现能力较弱的业务进行了优化。同时,从投入规模及成本与费用的管控来说,京东的采购纪律都更为严格,策略上一方面做到本地供给,另一方面增加订单密度规模化降本增效。总结来看,我们预计新业务的收入同比增长7%,达75 亿元。   经营利润率环比缩窄,达-31.4%。   3)3P 业务,相较于1P 业务收到疫情的影响更大,增速显著放缓:由于3P 的商家大多为长尾部商家,履约能力较弱,比如服饰类商家,疫情导致供给端的供应链破坏,同时用户宅家,需求变弱,商户的春季库存积压较为严重,夏季的服饰也处于停滞生产的状态。而如果商家有生产秋装的需求,二季度就需要开始进行备货等准备,所以疫情的影响将不止于4,5 月份,对于一些行业甚至会有滞后性。同时,3P 业务的收入有很大一部分来源于广告,广告是市场的晴雨表,商家在面临销售额的不确定下,会减少广告的投放,所以二季度整体上3P 业务的增速将有显著的放缓。但由于京东平台的效果类广告较多,所以纵向对比同业的竞争对手受到的影响会少一些。总结来看,我们预计2022 年Q2 的平台及广告服务收入将达209 亿左右,同比增长9.8%。   4)用户方面,京东更加注重用户质量,保持健康的增长节奏:目前在电商用户进入瓶颈的大环境下,拉新的成本过高,投入产出比不高。过去两年(2019-2021),京东累计了约2 亿的新用户,对于这部分新用户,京东的策略会更注重新用户的维护,提升单用户的购买频次及ARPU 值。但京东并未放弃用户增长,预计京东在拉新上会保持一个健康保守的节奏,稳中向前。   盈利预测及投资建议:我们持续看好公司整体业务长期的健康性和可持续性。考虑到疫情导致全国局部地区业务受到冲击,及宏观经济的不确定性,我们预计京东集团2022Q2 的营业收入为2,614 亿元。由于疫情反复导致的供应链受损,及部分行业在面临不确定下减少对广告的投放,我们略微下调2022 年的营收为10,645亿元(前值为10,754 亿元)。2022Q2 的 NON-GAAP 净利润为44 亿元。由于3P 业务的增速有所放缓,我们略微下调2022 年的NON-GAAP 净利润为184 亿元(前值为187 亿元)。我们维持目标公司2022 年目标市值8,260 亿港元。维持“买入”评级。   风险提示事件:宏观经济增速下滑,市场竞争加剧,行业增长不及预期,政策风险,变现率及毛利率提升不及预期,运营资金不足,盈利不达预期,研报使用的信息数据更新不及时等。

Core ideas: The main results are as follows: 1) Omni-channel business is the top priority of the company's development, and its development is still in its early stage, and it is expected to maintain a trend higher than the growth of the retail market: in recent years, the format of traditional retail has been continuously improved with the change of consumers' habits. In particular, the super category presents the characteristics of online and offline omni-channel, and consumers' information for various categories tends to be full-touch. At present, JD.com 's omni-channel strategy has begun to bear fruit, with omni-channel business accounting for about 10% of group revenue and group GMV. In particular, the sustained and rapid development of home and real-time distribution business not only enhances the consumer experience and brings more efficient and convenient services in the same city, but also deeply connects the offline physical enterprises, bringing the increment of users and income for the cooperative brands and merchants. 2) the new business is more focused, and the nodes that strategically abandon some loss-making urban businesses or make JD.com 's new business UE regular come ahead of schedule: for JD.com, the primary goal in 2022 is to ensure sustainable development and promote the healthy growth of profits and cash flow. So JD.com adjusted the new business, reduced to the current two provinces and cities, and optimized the business with little hope of short-term profit and weak liquidity. At the same time, in terms of the scale of investment and the control of costs and expenses, JD.com 's procurement discipline is more stringent. On the one hand, it achieves local supply, on the other hand, it increases the density of orders, reduces costs and increases efficiency. To sum up, we expect revenue from the new business to grow by 7% year-on-year to 7.5 billion yuan. Operating profit margin narrowed month-on-month to-31.4%. 3) 3P business is more affected by the epidemic than 1P business, and its growth rate slows significantly: because most 3P businesses are long-tailed merchants and have weak performance ability, such as clothing merchants, the epidemic has led to the destruction of the supply chain at the supply side. at the same time, the demand for residential users is weaker, the inventory backlog of merchants in spring is more serious, and clothing production in summer is also in a state of stagnation. If businesses have a demand for autumn clothes, they need to start stock preparation and other preparations in the second quarter, so the impact of the epidemic will not only extend to April and May, but will even lag some industries. At the same time, a large part of the revenue of 3P business comes from advertising, which is a barometer of the market. Merchants will reduce advertising in the face of sales uncertainty, so the growth rate of 3P business as a whole will slow down significantly in the second quarter. However, because there are more effect advertisements on JD.com platform, the vertical comparison of competitors in the same industry will be less affected. To sum up, we expect revenue from Q2 platforms and advertising services to reach about 20.9 billion in 2022, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year. 4) in terms of users, JD.com pays more attention to user quality and maintains a healthy growth pace: at present, in the environment of e-commerce users entering the bottleneck, the cost of customer acquisition is too high, and the input-output ratio is not high. In the past two years (2019-2021), JD.com accumulated about 200 million new users. For these new users, JD.com 's strategy will pay more attention to the maintenance of new users and improve the purchase frequency and ARPU value of single users. However, JD.com did not give up user growth, and JD.com is expected to maintain a healthy and conservative pace in customer acquisition and move forward steadily. Profit forecast and investment advice: we continue to be optimistic about the long-term health and sustainability of the company's overall business. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic on business in some parts of the country, as well as macroeconomic uncertainty, we estimate the operating income of JD.com Group 2022Q2 to be 261.4 billion yuan. Due to the damage to the supply chain caused by repeated outbreaks and the reduction of advertising in some industries in the face of uncertainty, we have slightly reduced our revenue to 1.0645 trillion yuan in 2022 (the previous value is 1.0754 trillion yuan). 2022Q2's NON-GAAP net profit is 4.4 billion yuan. Due to the slowdown in the growth of the 3P business, we slightly reduced the net profit of NON-GAAP in 2022 to 18.4 billion yuan (the previous value was 18.7 billion yuan). We maintain the target company's 2022 target market capitalization of HK $826 billion. Maintain a "buy" rating. Risk reminder events: macroeconomic growth is declining, market competition is intensified, industry growth is not as expected, policy risk, realization rate and gross profit margin are lower than expected, operating funds are insufficient, profits are not up to expectations, and the information and data used in the research and report are not updated in a timely manner.

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