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京东集团-SW(9618.HK)2022Q2业绩前瞻:供需稳步恢复收入显韧性 利润率保持稳健 Group-SW (9618.HK) 2022Q2 performance Forecast: steady recovery of supply and demand income shows resilience profit margin remains robust

国海证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

主要财务指标前瞻:我们预计京东集团2022Q2 实现总营收2,620亿元(YoY+3%,QoQ+9%),其中商品收入预计2,265 亿元(YoY+3%),服务收入预计355 亿元(YoY+4%);预计京东集团2022Q2 的Non-GAAP 归母净利润47 亿元(YoY+1%,QoQ+16%),Non-GAAP 归母净利率环比提升0.1%至1.8%,其中Non-GAAP 归母净利润保持平稳主要源于:正负向因素的抵销平衡,1)负向因素: 疫情影响下利润率较高的1P 带电和3P 服务收入有压力,增长快的商超品类仍然亏损,且在疫情下的履约费用预计抬升明显;2)正向因素:宏观疲软下公司营销投放更为谨慎,且新业务中京喜拼拼战略收缩不断优化UE,环比预计持续减亏。 用户情况前瞻:我们预计京东集团截至2022Q2 年度活跃用户数达到6 亿,较上一季度增长2000 万,主要由于1)疫情期间自营物流体系彰显优势,用户渗透得以进一步提升;2)受益于京喜拼拼等创新业务在下沉区域的持续拉新推动。未来随着京东全渠道业务的持续发展,提升高质量用户占比以及用户参与度成为未来主要方向。 京东零售:我们预计2022Q2 京东零售营收同比增长3.8%至2,415亿元,经营利润率下降至2.5%;预计2022Q2 1P 带电品类营收同比增长0.3%至1,372 亿元,1P 日用百货品类营收同比增长7.7%至893 亿元,3P 平台及广告服务营收同比增长2.4%至194 亿元。其中2022Q2 京东零售营收同比增速放缓主要受到4/5 月局部高线城市疫情影响,消费力和履约效率受到一定程度制约,1)需求侧:高客单价的带电品类更换周期延长,更多消费低客单价的商超品类,且中国实物商品网上零售额2022 年1-6 月同比增速仅录得5.6%,也一定程度拖累平台GMV 增速;2)供给侧:3P 商家受疫情影响更大,主要由于非京东自营物流受疫情封控影响更大,且3P 商家售卖集中在服饰等长尾品类,部分商家在春装库存有积压情况下夏装备货有压力。但今年京东618 整体表现稳健,且伴随6 月开始的履约逐步恢复,预计版块营收增速后续会逐步回升。 京东物流:据国家邮政局数据测算显示,2022 年4 月/5 月/6 月全国快递业务量同比增速分别为-11.9%/0.2%/5.4%,4 月/5 月受到疫情影响较大,履约配送效率的提升受到一定阻碍,履约配送费用有一定抬升,因此我们预计2022Q2 京东物流营收同比增长5.2%至274亿元,经营利润率同比下降至-2.1%,但长期我们仍然看好京东物流作为自营供应链模式龙头的收入稳定性优势。 新业务: 我们预计2022Q2 京东新业务营收与去年同期持平至70 亿元,新业务主要包含京东产发、京喜、京东国际等。2022 年京喜会继续围绕效率和体验改善底层供应链和UE,单均履约成本有望进一步下降,未来将继续重视打造短链物流等能力,强化用户消费习惯的培养 盈利预测和投资评级:我们预计公司2022-2024 年营收分别为10,742/12,658/14,776 亿元,归母净利分别为64/154/192 亿元,对应摊薄EPS为2.02/4.73/5.77 元,对应P/E为101/43/35;根据SOTP估值法,我们给予2022 年京东集团合计目标市值8,100 亿元,对应目标价259 人民币/302 港币,维持“买入”评级。 风险提示:全国疫情反复影响;宏观经济增长不及预期;互联网政策监管和估值调整风险;零售/物流行业竞争加剧;下沉市场发展不及预期;平台商家生态发展不及预期;用户增长不及预期;疫情区域供应链恢复不及预期;腾讯减持风险等。

Main financial indicators: we expect the total revenue of Group 2022Q2 to reach 262 billion yuan (YoY+3%,QoQ+9%), of which commodity revenue is expected to be 226.5 billion yuan (YoY+3%) and service revenue is expected to be 35.5 billion yuan (YoY+4%). It is estimated that the Non-GAAP homing net profit of 2022Q2 of Group is 4.7 billion yuan (YoY+1%,QoQ+16%), and the Non-GAAP homing net interest rate is 0.1% to 1.8% higher than the previous month. The stability of Non-GAAP homing net profit is mainly due to the offset balance of positive and negative factors, 1) negative factors: Under the influence of the epidemic, 1P live electricity and 3P service income with higher profit margins are under pressure, and the fast-growing supermarkets are still losing money, and the performance costs are expected to rise significantly under the epidemic; 2) positive factors: under the macro weakness, the company's marketing investment is more cautious, and the strategic contraction of Beijing-Xipi in the new business continues to optimize UE, and losses are expected to continue to reduce month-on-month. User outlook: we expect the number of active users of Group to reach 600 million in the year to 2022Q2, an increase of 20 million over the previous quarter, mainly due to 1) the advantages of the proprietary logistics system during the epidemic and a further increase in user penetration. 2) benefiting from the continuous customer acquisition promotion of innovative businesses such as Jingxipin in the sinking area. In the future, with the continuous development of 's omni-channel business, improving the proportion of high-quality users and user participation will become the main direction in the future. Retail: we expect 2022Q2 's retail revenue to grow 3.8% year-on-year to 241.5 billion yuan, and operating profit margin to drop to 2.5%. Revenue from 2022Q2 1P electrified products is expected to grow 0.3% to 137.2 billion yuan, 1P department store revenue up 7.7% to 89.3 billion yuan, and 3P platform and advertising service revenue up 2.4% to 19.4 billion yuan. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of retail revenue of 2022Q2 is mainly affected by the epidemic situation in some high-line cities in May, and the consumption power and performance efficiency are restricted to a certain extent. 1) on the demand side: the replacement cycle of electrified products with high passenger unit price is prolonged, and there are more merchandise categories with low unit price, and the online retail sales of physical goods in China recorded a year-on-year growth rate of only 5.6% from January to June 2022, which is also a drag on the growth rate of platform GMV to some extent. 2) supply side: 3P merchants are more affected by the epidemic, mainly because self-logistics is more affected by the epidemic, and 3P merchants sell mainly in long-tail categories such as clothing, and some businesses have pressure on summer equipment goods when spring clothing inventory is overstocked. However, the overall performance of 618 this year is sound, and with the gradual recovery of compliance that began in June, it is expected that the revenue growth rate of the plate will gradually pick up in the future. JD Logistics, Inc.: according to the data of the State Post Bureau, the year-on-year growth rate of national express business in April / May / June 2022 is-11.9%, 0.2%, 5.4%, respectively, which is greatly affected by the epidemic in April / May. The improvement of the efficiency of compliance distribution has been hindered to a certain extent, and the cost of compliance distribution has increased to a certain extent, so we expect 2022Q2 JD Logistics, Inc. 's revenue to increase by 5.2% to 27.4 billion yuan over the same period last year. The operating profit margin has dropped to-2.1% compared with the same period last year, but in the long run, we are still optimistic about JD Logistics, Inc. 's income stability advantage as the leader of the proprietary supply chain model. New business: we expect the revenue of 2022Q2 's new business to be the same as the same period last year to 7 billion yuan. The new business mainly includes production and Development, Jingxi, International and so on. In 2022, Jingxi will continue to improve the underlying supply chain and UE around efficiency and experience, and the per capita compliance cost is expected to further decline. in the future, it will continue to pay attention to building short-chain logistics and other capabilities, and strengthen the cultivation of users' consumption habits. Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1074212658max 1477.6 billion, the net profit from its mother will be 64max 154192 billion, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.02max 4.73max 5.77, and the corresponding SOTP E will be 101x43max; according to the SOTP valuation method, we will give the total market capitalization of the Group in 2022 810 billion yuan and the corresponding target price 259 yuan / 302 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining the "buy" rating. Risk tips: repeated impact of the national epidemic; lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth; Internet policy regulation and valuation adjustment risk; increased competition in the retail / logistics industry; sinking market development is not as expected; platform business ecological development is not as expected; user growth is not as expected; supply chain recovery in the epidemic area is not as expected; Tencent reduction risk, and so on.

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