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协鑫科技(3800.HK)2022年半年度业绩预告点评:硅料价格继续高涨 22H1业绩超预期
Xiexin Technology (3800.HK) half-year performance forecast for 2022 comments: Silicon prices continue to rise 22H1 performance exceeded expectations

光大证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  事件:7 月14 日,公司发布未经审核2022 年半年度业绩预告数据显示,公司2022年上半年营业收入约为154 亿元,同比增长75.0%,净利润约为69 亿元,同比增长187.5%。其中光伏材料业务营收约为147 亿元,综合毛利率约为48%,颗粒硅产品毛利率高于棒状硅毛利率15 个百分点以上,多晶硅产量约为4 万吨(不含集团的联营公司的多晶硅产量约为3.2 万吨)。   供不应求局面持续,硅料价格高企,22H1 业绩超预期。根据硅业分会数据,7月我国单晶复投料主流成交价在28.8-30.5 万元/吨,硅料供不应求局面持续,价格触及十年新高。当前硅料需求端景气度位于高位,我国光伏需求在国内整县推进、风光保障性并网及碳减排支持工具等多重因素驱动下稳步增长,下游硅片开工率持续提升;海外户用光伏装机量受缺电、电价高企影响高涨,对价格容忍度较高。由于硅料企业产能释放不及预期,且7 月将会有多家国内硅料企业进入检修期,硅料供给量环比将有所下降,这也强化了市场对于国内硅料紧缺的预期。   高涨的硅料价格以及硅料毛利率的提升促使公司2022H1 业绩超预期。   徐州新增3 万吨颗粒硅产能投产,年内产能将达26 万吨。6 月16 日,公司徐州基地新增3 万吨FBR 颗粒硅产能成功投产,从开工到投产仅8 个月。徐州基地的颗粒硅产能进入“6.0 时代”,形成迄今全球最大的单体颗粒硅研发与制造矩阵。协鑫科技已在内蒙古、四川、江苏分别规划建设多个10 万吨级颗粒硅生产基地,形成“三足鼎立”格局,年内总硅料产能将达36 万吨,其中颗粒硅26万吨。公司在手硅料订单超70 万吨,产销可以实现无缝对接、快速联动。   TCL 科技合作协议彰显市场信心,硅粉项目建设推动颗粒硅原材料自供。7 月7日TCL 科技公告称其子公司天津硅石拟与协鑫科技子公司江苏中能签署《合作协议》,共同投资设立新公司内蒙古鑫环,实施约10 万吨颗粒硅、硅基材料综合利用的生产及研发项目。这一协议进一步彰显市场对于颗粒硅产品的信心。此外,公司子公司乐山协鑫与新安股份共同建设的50 万吨/年工业硅粉加工项目(首期20 万吨/年)有望提高颗粒硅生产原材料自供率,增强公司成本控制能力。   盈利预测、估值与评级:硅料价格维持高位,公司硅料业务持续增长,2022H1净利润超预期。我们上调公司2022 年净利润预测为98.14 亿元(比前次上调8.17%),维持2023-2024 年净利润预测为95.31 亿元、100.33 亿元,对应2022-2024 年EPS 为0.36、0.35、0.37 元,维持“买入”评级。   风险提示:行业波动风险;订单履行风险;核心技术人员流失的风险;技术替代、募投项目达产不及预期等风险。

Event: on July 14, the company released unaudited half-year performance forecast data for 2022, showing that the company's operating income in the first half of 2022 was about 15.4 billion yuan, an increase of 75.0% over the same period last year, and its net profit was about 6.9 billion yuan, an increase of 187.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the revenue of photovoltaic materials business is about 14.7 billion yuan, the comprehensive gross profit margin is about 48%, and the gross profit margin of granular silicon products is more than 15% higher than that of bar silicon. The output of polysilicon is about 40,000 tons (the polysilicon output of the associated company excluding the group is about 32000 tons). The situation of supply falling short of demand continues, the price of silicon is high and the performance of 22H1 exceeds expectations. According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch, in July, the mainstream transaction price of single crystal re-feeding in China was 288-305,000 yuan / ton, the supply of silicon continued to fall short of demand, and the price reached a ten-year high. At present, the bearing of silicon demand is at a high level, and China's photovoltaic demand is growing steadily driven by multiple factors, such as the promotion of the whole county, landscape security grid connection and carbon emission reduction support tools, and the operating rate of downstream silicon wafers continues to increase. Overseas household photovoltaic installations are affected by power shortage and high electricity prices, and have a high tolerance for prices. As the production capacity of silicon enterprises is lower than expected, and a number of domestic silicon enterprises will enter the maintenance period in July, the supply of silicon will decline from the previous month, which also strengthens the market's expectation of domestic silicon shortage. The high price of silicon and the increase of silicon gross profit margin prompted the company's 2022H1 performance to exceed expectations. Xuzhou has added 30,000 tons of granular silicon to production, and the production capacity will reach 260000 tons this year. On June 16, the company's Xuzhou base successfully put into production 30,000 tons of FBR granular silicon, only 8 months from start-up to commissioning. The production capacity of granular silicon in Xuzhou base has entered the "6.0 era", forming the world's largest single granular silicon R & D and manufacturing matrix. Xiexin Technology has planned and built a number of 100,000-ton granular silicon production bases in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Jiangsu, forming a "tripod" pattern. This year, the total silicon production capacity will reach 360000 tons, including 260000 tons of granular silicon. The company has ordered more than 700000 tons of silicon material in hand, and its production and marketing can be seamlessly docked and quickly linked. TCL science and technology cooperation agreement demonstrates market confidence, silicon powder project construction to promote self-supply of granular silicon raw materials. TCL Technology announced on July 7th that its subsidiary Tianjin silica plans to sign a "cooperation agreement" with Jiangsu Zhongneng, a subsidiary of Xiexin Technology, to jointly invest in the establishment of a new company, Inner Mongolia Xinhuan, to implement a production and R & D project for the comprehensive utilization of about 100000 tons of granular silicon and silicon-based materials. This agreement further demonstrates the market's confidence in granular silicon products. In addition, the 500,000 tons / year industrial silicon powder processing project jointly built by the company's subsidiary Leshan Xiexin and Xin'an shares (the first phase 200,000 tons / year) is expected to improve the self-supply rate of raw materials for granular silicon production and enhance the company's cost control capacity. Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: Silicon prices remain high, the company's silicon business continues to grow, and 2022H1 net profit exceeds expectations. We raise the company's 2022 net profit forecast to 9.814 billion yuan (8.17% higher than the previous one), maintain the 2023-2024 net profit forecast of 9.531 billion yuan, 10.033 billion yuan, corresponding to 2022-2024 EPS is 0.36,0.35,0.37 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating. Risk hints: industry fluctuation risk; order fulfillment risk; risk of loss of core technical personnel; risk of technology substitution, underproduction of fund-raising projects, etc.

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