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协鑫科技(03800.HK):1H22业绩预增187.5% 下游合作落地
Xiexin Technology (03800.HK): 1H22 performance increased by 187.5% downstream cooperation landed

中金公司 ·  {{timeTz}}

1H22 预告盈利同比增长187.5% 公司公布1H22 业绩预告:公司预计1H22 归母净利润69 亿元,同比+187.5%;对应2Q22 盈利38.7 亿元,环比+28%,符合我们和市场的预期。其中:1)子公司亏损影响利润:结合公司控股子公司协鑫新能源(0451.HK)的盈警公告,由于在手光伏电站装机规模下降和美元债汇兑亏损,我们预计子公司协鑫新能源亏损对公司1H22 归母净利润影响约为3 亿元,剔除该部分影响后我们估算公司2Q22 归母净利润在40 亿元附近;2)硅片环节业绩维持稳定:我们估算硅片环节净利润约为3 亿元,环比持平;3)硅料盈利能力强,颗粒硅毛利率优势明显:我们估算硅料环节利润约为37 亿元,结合估算2Q22 硅料权益出货约3 万吨,对应综合单公斤盈利约为125 元/kg。根据公司公告,徐州颗粒硅产品毛利率持续高于徐州块状硅约15ppt,颗粒硅毛利率优势明显。 关注要点 硅料供给超预期收缩,行业景气周期有望延续。由于6 月中某未上市光伏硅料厂发生起火事故,至少影响3 万吨产能运行1。我们预计7 月产能环比下降5%,同时6 月底硅业协会统计的硅料行业周度成交价格跳涨5%。进入7 月份以后,7 月份个别检修企业减产幅度增大,三季度新增3 家企业计划检修,同时下游硅片涨价提升了对于硅料价格的接受度,我们预计硅料短期将维持涨势。 与大客户合作落地,上下游协同发展。2022 年4 月9 日,公司与TCL科技(000100.SZ)、TCL中环(002129.SZ)签署《合作框架协议》,合作协议包括:1)总投资90 亿元,建设10 万吨颗粒硅、硅基材料综合利用的生产及下游应用领域研发项目;2)总投资30 亿元,建设约1 万吨电子级多晶硅项目。TCL科技(或其子公司)、协鑫科技(或其子公司)拟分别持股40%、60%设立两家合资公司实施上述项目,我们认为大客户与公司合作投资颗粒硅项目表明下游对颗粒硅的认可度与接受度提升。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到硅料今年供给紧缺,硅料涨价超预期,我们上调2022 年盈利预测15.3%至149 亿元,考虑到明年硅料产能释放之后供给缓解,硅料价格或下行,我们维持2023 年盈利预测110 亿元不变,当前股价对应2022/23 年5.9x/8.0x市盈率。上调目标价19.5%至4.78 元,维持跑赢行业评级,目标价对应 2022/23 年7x/10x市盈率,上行空间26.8%。 风险 光伏终端需求不及预期,其他光伏原辅材料供给瓶颈超预期。

1H22 forecasts profit growth of 187.5% year-on-year The company announced the 1H22 performance forecast: the company expects 1H22 to return to the parent net profit of 6.9 billion yuan, + 187.5% compared with the same period last year; corresponding to 2Q22 profit of 3.87 billion yuan, month-on-month + 28%, in line with our and market expectations. Among them: 1) subsidiary loss affects profit: combined with the earnings announcement of the company's holding subsidiary Xiexin New Energy (0451.HK), due to the decline in the installed scale of the photovoltaic power station on hand and the loss on the exchange of US dollar debt, we estimate that the impact of the subsidiary Xiexin New Energy loss on the company's 1H22 homing net profit is about 300 million yuan. Excluding this part of the impact, we estimate the company's 2Q22 homing net profit at around 4 billion yuan. 2) the performance of the silicon link remains stable: we estimate that the net profit of the silicon link is about 300 million yuan, which is flat compared with the previous month; 3) the silicon material profitability is strong, and the advantage of granular silicon gross profit margin is obvious: we estimate that the silicon material link profit is about 3.7 billion yuan, combined with estimated 2Q22 silicon material equity shipments of about 30,000 tons, corresponding to a comprehensive profit per kilogram of about 125yuan / kg. According to the company announcement, the gross profit margin of Xuzhou granular silicon products continues to be higher than Xuzhou bulk silicon about 15ppt, granular silicon gross profit margin advantage is obvious. Pay attention to the main points Silicon supply shrank more than expected, and the industry business cycle is expected to continue. Due to a fire accident in an unlisted photovoltaic silicon plant in June, at least 30,000 tons of capacity was affected. We expect production capacity to fall by 5% month-on-month in July, while the weekly transaction price of the silicon industry calculated by the Silicon Industry Association jumped 5% at the end of June. After entering July, individual maintenance enterprises increased their production reduction in July, and three new enterprises planned to overhaul in the third quarter. at the same time, the increase in the price of downstream silicon wafers has increased the acceptance of silicon prices, and we expect silicon materials to maintain an upward trend in the short term. Cooperation with major customers to land, upstream and downstream coordinated development. On April 9, 2022, the company signed a "Cooperation Framework Agreement" with TCL Technology (000100.SZ) and TCL Central (002129.SZ). The cooperation agreement includes: 1) a total investment of 9 billion yuan to build 100000 tons of granular silicon and silicon-based materials comprehensive utilization of production and downstream application R & D projects; 2) a total investment of 3 billion yuan to build about 10,000 tons of electronic grade polysilicon project. TCL Technology (or its subsidiaries) and Xiexin Technology (or its subsidiaries) plan to set up two joint ventures to implement the above projects. We believe that the cooperation between major customers and the company to invest in granular silicon projects shows the improvement of recognition and acceptance of granular silicon downstream. Profit forecast and valuation Considering the shortage of silicon material this year and the higher-than-expected price increase of silicon material, we raised our profit forecast for 2022 by 15.3% to 14.9 billion yuan. Taking into account the easing of supply after the release of silicon production capacity next year, silicon material prices may fall, we maintain the profit forecast of 11 billion yuan in 2023, and the current stock price corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 2022x23 5.9x/8.0x. Raise the target price by 19.5% to 4.78 yuan to maintain the outperform industry rating, with the target price corresponding to the price-to-earnings ratio of 2022 7x/10x 23, with 26.8% upside space. Risk The demand of photovoltaic terminal is lower than expected, and the supply bottleneck of other photovoltaic raw and auxiliary materials is higher than expected.

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