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京东集团-SW(09618.HK):预计收入端展现韧性 盈利端多因素提振表现稳健
JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK): the revenue side is expected to show resilience and the profit side is driven by multiple factors to boost robust performance.

东方证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

2Q22 预计收入端增长有所放缓,保持投入纪律性利润端表现稳健。收入方面,本季度公司业务受到疫情、宏观消费等多方因素扰动,我们预计公司整体收入2639 亿,同增4.0%(原预测同增4.2%)。利润方面,预计表现稳健,我们认为主要原因包括1)新业务的投入减少,2)疫情期间品牌心智建设良好,整体强调ROI 营销投入保持纪律性,3)广告业务韧性较强,我们预计公司本季度实现经调整归母净利润为49 亿(原47 亿),对应利润率1.9%(原1.8%)。 收入整体:618 表现稳健领先行业大盘,广告收入具备韧性。1)行业大盘:根据国家统计局披露,22 年4/5 月社零总额分别同降11.1%/6.7%,其中实物商品网上零售额同比分别为-5.2%/7.0%,五月线上消费回暖优于社零整体预计主要由于本年度618 第一轮预购尾款支付时间提前至5 月31 日晚8 点(21 年618 付款金额均记入6月)。根据星图数据披露,22 年618 期间综合电商平台销售总额较去年同期增长0.7%。2)618 表现稳健且后续稳定性强:公司本年度618 延续稳健增长,累计下单金额超3793 亿,同增10.3%,表现优于电商综合平台整体。此外,由于宏观因素抑制超前消费,预计本年度618 虹吸效应减弱,公司后续增长稳定性强。3)广告收入韧性较强:公司作为头部电商平台,效果广告占比较高,消费不景气时期商户及品牌偏好此类型广告,故具备更高的稳定性。综合以上,我们预计2Q22 公司实现商品收入为2281 亿,同增3.8%(原4.3%),实现服务收入为357 亿,同增4.8%(原3.2%)。 1P 带电:行业需求偏弱,预计公司仍持续获得市场份额。1)行业整体表现疲弱: 根据国家统计局披露,22 年4/5 月社零总额中,限额以上家用电器和音像器材类分别同降8.1%/10.6%,通讯器材类分别同降21.8%/7.7%,行业整体增速落后于社零整体及实物商品零售,需求较为疲弱。2)公司主营品类表现有所差异:虽然行业需求较弱,我们认为公司仍持续获取市场份额,预计2Q 家电及电脑数码两大子品类表现相对良好,手机品类存在供应紧张、换季周期等问题,表现相对较弱。综合以上,我们预计2Q22 公司带电品类商品收入为1381 亿,同增1.0%(原2.0%) 1P 日百:大商超持续健康成长,高频刚需品类线上渗透率持续提升。1)品类具有一定必选属性,疫情期间表现持续稳定:根据国家统计局披露,22 年4/5 月社零总额中,限额以上粮油食品类分别同增10.0%/12.3%,饮料类分别同增6.0%/7.7%,日用品类分别同降10.2%/6.7%,由于具备一定必选属性,受影响影响较小,表现均优于社零总额。2)线上化率具备持续提升空间:根据欧睿披露,家具/家居/零食在2021 年的线上渗透率分别为15.2%/28.6%/14.7%,线上化率仍处于相对较低水平(作为对比家电/消费电子线上渗透率分别为53.0%/49.5%)。公司依托优秀的履约能力,持续推动品类迁移,大商超类目稳定健康成长。我们预计2Q22 公司日百品类商品收入为900 亿,同增8.5%(原8.2%) 3P 平台及服务:履约及需求端影响延缓恢复,但构建平台生态战略仍为战略重点。 1)3P 业务整体受疫情影响,原因具体包括,a)非京东物流一体化履约,受到疫情封控影响更大,b)3P 商家分布在长尾品类,典型类目为服装,宏观需求相对疲弱。2)3P 生态构建仍为战略重点:2021 年积极推进3P 招商成效显著,商家数量快速增长,22 年新进商户进入蓄水成长期未来有望持续推动3P 业务增长。同时,公司仍重点坚持平台生态战略,招商力度维持。3)广告收入具备充足韧性:公司效果广告占比较高,消费不景气时期商户投放偏好此类广告,此外,疫情期间线上流 量的提升也利于广告收入的稳定增长。综合以上,我们预计2Q22 公司平台及服务收入为195 亿,同增2.7%(维持) 全渠道业务:集团战略重点,多业务线并进,京东到家及小时购表现优秀。1)预计整体表现优于零售整体:公司全渠道业务包含O2O 京东到家、小时购,线下7fresh、五星家电等多条业务线,是集团现阶段战略发展重点。目前,全渠道业务预计整体增长高于零售整体。2)京东到家及小时购表现优秀:22 年618 期间,京东到家+小时购销售额同增77%表现优异。本年度618 期间,新零售(近场电商)销售额达到224 亿元,同比增长25.8%,占比全网销售额达到3.2%,同比增长0.1pct。近场电商实现了电商在场景侧的进一步延伸,通过更精细的切割消费场景满足消费者的即时性需求,使得电商场景更为立体化,已经展现充分的发展潜力。公司基于供应链能力圈辐射开始发力近场电商,预计该板块收入有望占比继续提升。 预计2Q 盈利能力受亏损业务投入缩窄、零售&广告盈利稳定上行等因素正向影响。 我们认为盈利能力持续改善原因包括三个方面:1)亏损业务的投入节奏及规模调整,京东物流及新业务分部亏损预计均有收窄;2)疫情期间品牌京东心智建设良好,自然流量稳定提升,同时坚持遵循高质量增长,零售整体强调ROI 投入保持纪律性,成本费用可控。综合以上,预计Q1 集团实现经调整运营利润为35 亿(原33亿),对应利润率1.31%(原1.25%),实现经调整归母净利润为49 亿(原47亿),对应利润率1.86%(原1.78%)。 疫情期间积极抢占用户心智蓄积发展势能,严守投入纪律性盈利具备向上空间,持续看好公司品类丰富度提升、供应链能力夯实带来的长期潜力,维持“买入”评级。调整公司FY2022-2024 收入预测为10711/12574/14389 亿元( 原为10808/12724/14558 亿元) , 经调整归母净利润为203/319/387 亿元( 原为191/314/389 亿元)。分部估值计算公司市值8152 亿元,对应每股价值304.5 港元,维持“买入”评级 风险提示 疫情影响持续,行业竞争加剧,新业务孵化不及预期,行业监管趋严

2Q22 expects revenue-side growth to slow, maintaining investment discipline and solid performance on the profit side. In terms of revenue, the company's business was disturbed by the epidemic, macro consumption and other factors in the quarter. We expect the company's overall revenue to be 263.9 billion, an increase of 4.0% (same as the original forecast of 4.2%). On the profit side, the performance is expected to be robust, which we believe is mainly due to 1) reduced investment in new business, 2) good mental construction of the brand during the epidemic, overall emphasis on ROI marketing investment to maintain discipline, and 3) strong resilience in the advertising business. We expect the company to achieve an adjusted homing net profit of 4.9 billion (original 4.7 billion) and corresponding profit margin of 1.9% (original 1.8%) in this quarter. Overall revenue: 618 solid performance leading the industry market, advertising revenue is resilient. 1) Industry market: according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total amount of online retail sales of physical goods decreased by 11.1% 6.7% in May, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The recovery of online consumption in May is better than that of Social Zero, mainly due to the advance of the final payment time of the first round of 618 advance order to 8 pm on May 31 this year (the amount of 618 payment in 21 years is recorded in June). According to star map data, total sales of integrated e-commerce platforms increased by 0.7% over the same period last year during the 618 period in 22 years. 2) 618 has a steady performance and strong follow-up stability: the company has continued steady growth this year, with a cumulative order amount of more than 379.3 billion, an increase of 10.3%, which is better than that of the e-commerce platform as a whole. In addition, due to macro factors to curb advanced consumption, the siphon effect of 618 is expected to weaken this year, and the company's follow-up growth is stable. 3) Advertising revenue is more resilient: as a head e-commerce platform, the company accounts for a relatively high proportion of effective advertising, and merchants and brands prefer this type of advertising in the period of depressed consumption, so it has higher stability. Taken together, we expect 2Q22 to achieve merchandise revenue of 228.1 billion, an increase of 3.8% (formerly 4.3%) and service revenue of 35.7 billion, an increase of 4.8% (original 3.2%). 1P electrified: the industry demand is weak, and the company is expected to continue to gain market share. 1) the overall performance of the industry is weak: According to the disclosure of the National Bureau of Statistics, of the total social zero in May in April 22, household appliances and audio-visual equipment above the quota were down 8.1% and 10.6% respectively, and communications equipment were down 21.8% and 7.7% respectively. The overall growth rate of the industry lags behind that of retail sales of social zero and physical goods, and demand is relatively weak. 2) the performance of the company's main categories is different: although the industry demand is weak, we believe that the company continues to gain market share, and the two major categories of 2Q home appliances and computer digital are expected to perform relatively well. Mobile phone categories have problems such as tight supply and changing season cycle, and their performance is relatively weak. Taken together, we expect 2Q22's live goods revenue to be 138.1 billion, up 1.0% (originally 2.0%). 1P Daily hundred: Dashang Super continues to grow healthily, and the online permeability of high-frequency rigid supplies continues to increase. 1) the category has a certain required attribute, and its performance remained stable during the epidemic: according to the National Bureau of Statistics, of the total social zero in May in May in 22 years, the grain and oil food category above the quota increased by 10.0% and 12.3% respectively, the beverage category increased by 6.0% and 7.7% respectively, and the daily necessities category decreased by 10.2% and 6.7% respectively. The performance is better than the total social zero. 2) the online rate has room for continuous improvement: according to Euromonitor, the online penetration rate of furniture / household / snacks in 2021 is 15.2%, 28.6% and 14.7%, respectively. The online rate is still relatively low (for comparison, the online penetration rate of home appliances / consumer electronics is 53.0% and 49.5% respectively). Relying on the excellent performance ability, the company continues to promote the category migration, and the business category grows steadily and healthily. We expect 2Q22's daily commodity revenue to be 90 billion, an increase of 8.5% (previously 8.2%). 3P platform and services: implementation and demand-side impact delay recovery, but the construction of platform ecological strategy is still a strategic focus. 1) 3P business is affected by the epidemic as a whole, including: a) non-JD Logistics, Inc. integrated performance, which is more affected by epidemic control, b) 3P merchants are distributed in the long tail category, the typical category is clothing, and the macro demand is relatively weak. 2) the ecological construction of 3P is still a strategic focus: it has achieved remarkable results in actively promoting 3P investment in 2021, and the number of merchants has increased rapidly. in the past 22 years, new merchants are expected to continue to promote the growth of 3P business in the future. At the same time, the company still focuses on adhering to the platform ecological strategy and maintaining the efforts to attract investment. 3) Advertising revenue has sufficient resilience: the company's effective advertising accounts for a relatively high proportion, and merchants prefer this kind of advertising during the period of depressed consumption. in addition, the increase of online flow during the epidemic is also conducive to the stable growth of advertising revenue. Taken together, we expect 2Q22's platform and services revenue to be 19.5 billion, an increase of 2.7% (maintenance). Omni-channel business: the group's strategic focus, multi-business lines, JD.com home and hourly shopping performance is excellent. 1) the overall performance is expected to be better than that of retail as a whole: the company's omni-channel business includes O2O JD.com to home, hourly shopping, offline 7fresh, five-star home appliances and other business lines, which is the focus of the group's strategic development at this stage. At present, the overall growth of omni-channel business is expected to be higher than retail as a whole. 2) JD.com 's excellent performance in arriving home and hourly shopping: during the period of 22-618, JD.com 's sales of arriving home + hourly shopping increased by 77%. During the June 18th period of this year, the sales of new retail (near-field e-commerce) reached 22.4 billion yuan, an increase of 25.8% over the same period last year, accounting for 3.2% of the total network sales, an increase of 0.1pct over the same period last year. Near-field e-commerce has achieved the further extension of e-commerce in the scene side, through more fine cutting consumption scene to meet the immediate needs of consumers, making the e-commerce scene more three-dimensional, has shown full potential for development. Based on the radiation of the supply chain capacity circle, the company began to launch near-field e-commerce, and the share of revenue in this sector is expected to continue to increase. It is expected that the profitability of 2Q will be positively affected by the narrowing of loss-making business investment and the steady upward trend of retail-advertising profits. We believe that the reasons for the continued improvement in profitability include three aspects: 1) the investment rhythm and scale of the loss-making business are adjusted, and the losses of JD Logistics, Inc. and the new business segment are expected to narrow; 2) during the epidemic, the brand JD.com has a good mental construction and a steady increase in natural flow, while adhering to high-quality growth, retail as a whole emphasizes that ROI input is disciplined and costs can be controlled. Combined with the above, Q1 Group is expected to achieve adjusted operating profit of 3.5 billion (original 3.3 billion), corresponding profit margin of 1.31% (original 1.25%), adjusted home net profit of 4.9 billion (original 4.7 billion), and corresponding profit margin of 1.86% (original 1.78%). During the epidemic, we actively seize the potential energy of users' mental accumulation, strictly abide by the discipline of investment, make profits with upward space, continue to be optimistic about the long-term potential brought about by the improvement of the company's category richness and the tamping of supply chain capacity, and maintain the "buy" rating. The revenue of the adjusted company FY2022-2024 is estimated to be 107111774x1438.9 billion yuan (originally 1080812724max 1455.8 billion yuan), and the adjusted net profit to return to the mother is 203198.7 billion yuan (formerly 191qqmax 38.9 billion yuan). Segment valuation calculates the company's market capitalization of 815.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a value of HK $304.5 per share, maintaining a "buy" rating Risk hint The impact of the epidemic continues, the competition in the industry intensifies, the incubation of new business is less than expected, and the supervision of the industry is stricter.

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