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京东集团-SW(09618.HK)公司点评:自营展现韧性 利润率保持稳健
JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) comments: self-management shows resilience and profit margin remains robust

国盛证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

疫情短期影响物流履约,5 月以来边际复苏。根据国家统计局,2022 年4、5 月社零同比下降11.1%、6.7%,降幅缩窄。按累计同比增速推算,4、5月实物商品网上零售额分别同比下降5.2%、增长7%,逐步复苏。6 月以来,我们预计随着疫情逐步好转,消费进一步温和恢复。 我们预计,Q2 京东收入增速受疫情冲击、但有望实现正增长,其中自营业务展现相对韧性。 差异化品类具备优势,自营业务展现韧性。疫情因素导致供应链物流履约短期承压,我们预计京东4 月受疫情影响最大,5 月环比有所恢复。6 月以来,随着疫情好转、物流恢复,京东收入端有望稳健增长。京东618 期间累计下单金额3793 亿元、同比增长10%。 从品类上看,我们预计大商超、家电等品类表现相对较好,非刚需品类如时尚、手机品类相对较弱。从业务模式看,得益于相对完善的供应链基础设施和品类优势,京东自营电商业务受影响相对有限,我们预计Q2 自营业务收入体现韧性。 供应链优势凸显,开启供应链价值元年。京东以“有责任的供应链”开启供应链价值元年,实现线上线下共振。物流设施方面,43 座“亚洲一号”以及1400 个仓库为核心的仓储配送体系,可实现93%区县、84%乡镇的当日或次日送达。技术基础方面,京东云提供坚实技术基础设施底座,推动数智供应链能力的规模化产业落地。 618 期间,京东小时购、京东到家联合超15 万线下实体门店提供即时零售服务,双渠道销售额同比增长77%,小时购下单用户同比增长超4 倍、单均配送时长缩短4 分钟。供应链终端,京东超市全渠道业务超2.7 万个合作品牌、超3 万家合作门店成交额同比增长5 倍,带动线下实体焕发生机。 注重效率提升,利润率保持稳健。零售方面,疫情导致履约成本提升、3P业务放缓以及大商超业务的增加,对利润率带来一定波动。原有新业务方面,推进京喜区域战略聚焦,推进运营效率和UE 模型改善。京东物流方面,精细化运营和客户结构的持续改善,将推动京东物流亏损缩窄。综合来看,我们预计Q2 集团 non-GAAP 净利润率为1.8%,全年净利润率保持同比稳健。 重申“买入”评级。预计公司2022-2024 年收入10613/12286/14201 亿元,non-GAAP 归母净利192/246/316 亿元,同比增长11%/28%/28%。基于分部估值法,给予京东港股(9618.HK)282 港元/美股(JD.O)72 美元目标价,重申“买入”评级。 风险提示:平台商家生态发展不及预期;站外流量增长不及预期;第三方物流变现不及预期;消费者消费意愿不及预期;疫情影响超预期。

The epidemic affects logistics performance in the short term, and has recovered marginally since May. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, social zero fell 11.1% and 6.7% year-on-year in April and May 2022, narrowing the decline. According to the cumulative year-on-year growth rate, online retail sales of physical goods fell 5.2% in April and 7% in May compared with the same period last year, and gradually recovered. Since June, we expect a further moderate recovery in consumption as the epidemic gradually improves. We expect the Q2 JD.com income growth rate to be affected by the epidemic, but is expected to achieve positive growth, in which the proprietary business shows relative resilience. Differentiated categories have advantages, proprietary business shows resilience. Epidemic factors lead to short-term pressure on supply chain logistics performance. We expect JD.com to be the most affected by the epidemic in April and recover in May. Since June, with the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of logistics, JD.com 's income is expected to grow steadily. During the period of June 18, JD.com placed a total of 379.3 billion yuan in orders, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. In terms of categories, we expect that categories such as supermarkets and household appliances perform relatively well, while non-rigid demand categories such as fashion and mobile phones are relatively weak. From the business model, thanks to the relatively perfect supply chain infrastructure and category advantages, JD.com 's proprietary e-commerce business is relatively limited, and we expect Q2 proprietary business income to reflect resilience. The advantages of the supply chain are highlighted, opening the value of the supply chain in the first year. JD.com uses "responsible supply chain" to open the first year of supply chain value, realizing online and offline resonance. In terms of logistics facilities, the warehousing and distribution system with 43 "Asia No.1" and 1400 warehouses as the core can achieve the same-day or next-day delivery of 93 per cent of districts and counties and 84 per cent of villages and towns. In terms of technological foundation, JD.com Cloud provides a solid technological infrastructure base to promote the landing of large-scale industries with digital intelligence supply chain capabilities. During the period of June 18th, JD.com hourly shopping and JD.com went home to unite with more than 150,000 offline brick-and-mortar stores to provide real-time retail services. Dual-channel sales increased by 77% compared with the same period last year. The number of users who issued orders for hourly shopping increased by more than 4 times compared with the same period last year, and the average delivery time per unit was shortened by 4 minutes. Supply chain terminal, JD.com supermarket omni-channel business more than 27000 cooperative brands, more than 30,000 cooperative stores turnover increased five times year-on-year, driving offline entities to coruscate vitality. Pay attention to the improvement of efficiency and keep the profit margin stable. On the retail side, the epidemic has led to an increase in performance costs, a slowdown in 3P business and an increase in super business, which has brought certain fluctuations to profit margins. In terms of the existing new business, promote the focus of Jingxi regional strategy, promote operational efficiency and improve the UE model. JD Logistics, Inc., fine operation and customer structure of the continuous improvement, will promote JD Logistics, Inc. loss narrowing. Taken together, we expect the Q2 group's non-GAAP net profit margin to be 1.8%, and the full-year net profit margin to remain robust year-on-year. Reiterate the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's 2022-2024 revenue will be 10613xx12286x14201 billion, and the net profit of non-GAAP will be 192,246gamma 31.6 billion, an increase of 11%, 28% and 28% over the same period last year. Based on the segment valuation method, Jingdong Hong Kong stock (9618.HK) is given a target price of HK $282 / US stock (JD.O) of US $72, reiterating the "buy" rating. Risk hints: the ecological development of platform merchants is not as expected; the growth of off-site traffic is not as expected; the realization of third-party logistics is not as expected; consumers' willingness to spend is not as expected; the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected.

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