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京东集团-SW(9618.HK):疫情冲击供需两端 精益增长利润率稳健 Group-SW (9618.HK): the impact of the epidemic on lean growth profit margins at both ends of supply and demand

国泰君安 ·  {{timeTz}}

  本报告导读:   22Q2疫情冲击下对京东需求和履约端均构成影响,预计收入增速明显放缓但维持正增长;受益效率提升和对利润率及现金流的关注,预计利润率维持稳健。   摘要:   维持“增持” 评级。22Q2 全国范围内管控趋严对需求端和履约端共同构成较大影响但京东履约优势依然明显,忠诚用户持续复购与超市日用品类的持续渗透成为重要驱动力。公司关注利润率与现金流,新业务收缩减亏。预计公司22-24 年经调整归母净利润205/297/370 亿元,经调整EBITDA225/288/398 亿元,给予2023 年27xPE,目标市值8019亿人民币,对应9357 亿元港币,目标价298.9 元港币,增持。   疫情对需求和履约两端同时冲击,预计收入增速放缓但仍增长。①疫情与封控背景下,场景受限、能力下降以及欲望低迷是需求端三大冲击,京东核心客户为关注品质和体验,相对影响较小;②履约端的影响更大:较大范围的物流封控导致京东履约受限,并带来一定程度的退单率提升等影响,上述冲击集中在4-5 月,进入6 月后随着情况改善,补偿式消费和618 促销驱动明显修复;③我们预计22Q2 整体营业收入2596.45 亿/+2.38%,其中预计GMV 增速与二季度线上大盘一致,线上零售业务2,218 亿/+0.94%,服务收入380.8 亿/+11.64%。   精益增长下营销投放谨慎,疫情影响履约费用率或有所提升。①疫情导致部分仓库履约能力受限,并由此导致22Q2 履约费用率存在上涨可能性,我们预计22Q2 履约费用率提升至6.8%(22Q1 为6.5%);②销售费用率主要与新业务补贴拉新节奏相关,在精益增长与战略收缩的大环境下,补贴拉新与新业务投放性价比并不高,因此我们预计22Q2 营销费用率将进一步下降至3.5%(22Q1 为3.6%)。   关注盈利与增长质量,预计二季度利润率同比持平。①公司在22Q1开始采取新的成本管理措施,预计对效率仍有提升,上述效果将逐步体现;②我们预计二季度京东22Q2 经调整盈利利润为59.84 亿元,经调整营业利润率为2.3%(21Q2 为2.1%);经调整归母净利润为47.78亿元/+3.27%,经调整归母净利润率为1.84%,与21Q2 的1.82%持平。   风险提示:行业竞争加剧影响利润率,经济增速放缓影响消费需求。

This report is read as follows: The impact of the 22Q2 epidemic has an impact on 's demand and performance end, income growth is expected to slow significantly but maintain positive growth; benefit efficiency and focus on profit margins and cash flow, profit margins are expected to remain robust. Summary: Maintain the "overweight" rating. The stricter control of 22Q2 nationwide has a great impact on both the demand side and the performance side, but 's performance advantage is still obvious, and the continuous repurchase of loyal users and the continuous penetration of supermarket daily necessities have become important driving forces. The company pays attention to profit margin and cash flow, and new business shrinks and reduces losses. It is estimated that the company's adjusted net profit for 22-24 will be RMB297370 billion, adjusted EBITDA225/288/398 billion and 27xPE 2023, with a target market capitalization of RMB 801.9 billion, corresponding to HK $935.7 billion and a target price of HK $298.9. The epidemic has hit both sides of demand and compliance at the same time, and income growth is expected to slow but still grow. Under the background of ① epidemic and containment, the limited scene, declining ability and low desire are the three major shocks on the demand side. 's core customers focus on quality and experience, which has relatively little impact. The impact on the performance side of ② is even greater: a wide range of logistics control has led to the limitation of 's performance, and brought about a certain degree of increase in the return rate, and so on. The above shocks are concentrated in April-May, and as the situation improves in June, compensated consumption and 618 promotion drivers are obviously repaired. ③ We estimate that the overall operating income of 22Q2 is 259.645 billion / + 2.38%, in which the growth rate of GMV is expected to be in line with the online market in the second quarter, with online retail business of 221.8 billion / + 0.94% and service revenue of 38.08 billion / + 11.64%. Under the lean growth, the marketing is cautious, and the epidemic affects the rate of performance expenses. The ① epidemic has limited the compliance capacity of some warehouses, resulting in the possibility of an increase in the rate of 22Q2 compliance costs. We expect the rate of 22Q2 compliance costs to increase to 6.8% (22Q1 6.5%). ② sales expense rate is mainly related to the pace of new business subsidy customer acquisition. In the environment of lean growth and strategic contraction, subsidized customer acquisition is not cost-effective with new business launch, so we expect 22Q2 marketing expense rate to further drop to 3.5% (22Q1 is 3.6%). Focus on profitability and growth quality, and profit margins are expected to be flat in the second quarter compared with the same period last year. ① began to adopt new cost management measures in 22Q1, and it is expected that the efficiency will still be improved, and the above effect will be reflected gradually. ②, we expect 22Q2 to make an adjusted profit of 5.984 billion yuan in the second quarter, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 2.3% (21Q2 is 2.1%). The adjusted homing net profit is 4.778 billion yuan / + 3.27%, and the adjusted homing net profit margin is 1.84%, which is the same as that of 21Q2. Risk hint: increased competition in the industry affects profit margins, and slowing economic growth affects consumer demand.

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