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京东集团-SW(09618.HK)2022Q2业绩前瞻:GMV增速逐月恢复 盈利能力保持稳健
JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) 2022Q2 performance Forecast: GMV growth returns month by month and profitability remains robust

招商证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

受局部地区疫情封控影响,我们预计Q2 公司GMV 增速有所放缓,但随着疫情好转、618 大促刺激消费,公司业绩逐渐改善,盈利能力保持稳健。我们预计Q2 公司收入增速为3%,NON-GAAP 归母利润率为1.8%。我们维持看好公司自营模式下的强大壁垒,业绩增长的可持续性,以及盈利能力的不断提升,维持“强烈推荐”评级。 疫情封控导致短期业绩承压,自营凸显韧性、预计公司收入微增。4 月局部地区疫情反复,封控区域静态化管理致使物流履约效率降低,预计公司GMV 增速(履约口径)为负;5 月以来物流逐渐恢复,预计GMV 增速有所回升;6 月随着疫情好转、618 大促刺激消费,预计公司GMV 增速接近618,同比10%左右增长。自营业务方面,受益于京东自营模式下强大的用户口碑和高效的物流体系,增速相对坚挺。平台业务方面,受服装、化妆品品类恢复不足影响,增速低于自营模式,但优于行业平均水平。分品类来看,预计家电、商超、健康品类反弹较好;服装、化妆品品类虽有所恢复,但整体疲软;手机品类受供给侧影响,恢复较慢。用户方面,疫情影响拉新,预计Q2 新增活跃用户数低于Q1。我们预计Q2 公司整体收入增速约3%。 重视成本和费用优化,预计NON-GAAP 归母净利率增速与去年持平。公司收入端受疫情影响增速放缓,成本端因参与上海保供导致额外履约成本增加。但另一方面,公司高度重视成本和费用的管控,积极缩减低效营销费用支出,并对京喜拼拼等新业务进行持续调整优化。多重措施控费下,我们预计Q2 公司NON-GAAP 归母净利率为1.8%,与去年同期持平,盈利能力保持稳健。 投资建议:公司2022Q2 受疫情封控影响,业绩短期承压,但伴随疫情好转,6 月借势618 大促,收入恢复至正常增速。公司自营模式具备强大壁垒,未来业绩增长可持续,我们维持公司盈利预测,维持“强烈推荐”评级。 风险提示:疫情反复;宏观消费疲软;行业竞争加剧;下沉市场不达预期。

Affected by the local epidemic control, we expect the GMV growth rate of Q2 company to slow down, but with the improvement of the epidemic and the stimulus of consumption, the company's performance has gradually improved and its profitability remains robust. We expect the Q2 company's revenue to grow by 3%. The home profit margin of NONMAE GAAP is 1.8%. We maintain the strong barriers under the company's proprietary model, the sustainability of performance growth, and the continuous improvement of profitability, and maintain a "highly recommended" rating. The closure of the epidemic has put pressure on short-term performance, self-management highlights resilience, and the company's revenue is expected to increase slightly. In April, the epidemic situation in some areas was repeated, and the static management of the closed and controlled areas reduced the efficiency of logistics implementation, and the company's GMV growth rate is expected to be negative; logistics has gradually recovered since May, and the GMV growth rate is expected to pick up; with the improvement of the epidemic in June, it is expected that the company's GMV growth rate will be close to 618%, about 10% higher than the same period last year. In terms of proprietary business, it has benefited from JD.com 's strong user reputation and efficient logistics system, with a relatively strong growth rate. In terms of platform business, affected by the lack of recovery of clothing and cosmetics categories, the growth rate is lower than the proprietary model, but better than the industry average. In terms of categories, home appliances, merchant supermarkets and health categories are expected to rebound better; clothing and cosmetics categories recover somewhat, but the overall weakness; mobile phone categories are affected by the supply side, the recovery is slow. In terms of users, the epidemic affects customer access, and the number of new active users in Q2 is expected to be lower than that in Q1. We expect Q2's overall revenue to grow by about 3%. With emphasis on cost and expense optimization, the growth rate of NON-GAAP net interest rate is expected to be the same as that of last year. The company's revenue side was affected by the epidemic and the growth rate slowed down, while the cost side increased the additional performance costs due to its participation in Shanghai guarantee. On the other hand, the company attaches great importance to the management and control of costs and expenses, actively reduces inefficient marketing expenses, and continuously adjusts and optimizes new businesses such as Jingxi. Under multiple measures to control fees, we expect the NON-GAAP return net interest rate of Q2 company to be 1.8%, which is the same as that of the same period last year, and its profitability remains robust. Investment advice: the company's 2022Q2 was affected by the epidemic, and its performance was under short-term pressure, but with the improvement of the epidemic, it took advantage of 618 in June and its income returned to the normal growth rate. The company's proprietary model has strong barriers and future performance growth is sustainable. We maintain the company's profit forecast and maintain a "highly recommended" rating. Risk tips: repeated epidemic situation; weak macro consumption; intensified competition in the industry; sinking market did not meet expectations.

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