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京东集团-SW(09618.HK):强势品类保证业绩增长 盈利能力保持稳健 Group-SW (09618.HK): strong category ensures performance growth and profitability remains robust

东吴证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  5 月以来公司业务逐步复苏,我们预测2022Q2 京东实现营收2614.2 亿元,同比增长3%,Non-GAAP 净利润47.6 亿元,净利率为1.82%。   强势品类稳住增长势头,疫情冲击后收入逐步复苏: 4 月全国线上实物零售额同降0.99%,一线城市疫情加重,集团零售收入增速受到的影响大于全国整体。5 月疫情影响逐渐减弱,叠加618 开门红带动作用,收入端环比有所改善。6 月宏观消费需求虽未完全恢复,但由于4-5 月疫情导致家电上门安装需求积压逐渐释放、6 月底开始的高温天气也带动了空调等家电品类销量,我们预计强势品类将稳住收入端增长势头。预计6 月收入同比增长约10%,2022Q2 收入同比实现低个位数增长。   疫情保供增加履约成本,预计Non-GAAP 净利率同比持平: 4-5 月疫情封控导致多地物流不畅,跨区运输、员工保护等保供措施导致额外成本和费用,我们预计2022Q2 履约成本有所增加。3P 业务中小商家受疫情冲击导致业务增速放缓、大商超微亏等因素也对净利率造成一定的负面影响。但考虑到集团本季度以降本增效为重点,严格执行成本及费用管控,对变现周期较长的业务进行投放力度和节奏调整,物流业务亏损也持续缩窄,我们预计2022Q2Non-GAAP 净利同期持平,增速约为1.82%。   多项预案应对疫情反复,新业务减亏效果显著,预计全年利润率稳中有升:目前全国多地疫情出现反复迹象,但4 月以来集团已针对仓网布局等问题出台多项预案。新业务方面,京喜拼拼目前已大幅收缩,集团将减亏和提升利润作为工作重点,因此我们预计下半年利润弹性有望扩大,全年利润率稳中有升。   盈利预测与投资评级:行业竞争格局加剧,公司用户数不及彭博一致预期,但公司营收依然保持较强的韧性,我们维持2022-2024 年的收入预测为11358/12891/14716 亿元;由于公司未来会加大物流投入,但其他费用支出将有所下行,因此我们维持过往2022-2024 年的EPS(经调整)预测为6.5/10.3/15.2 元,对应PE 分别为30.6/19.3/13.0 倍(港币/人民币=0.8569,2022/07/12 数据)。公司持续投入虽短期影响到公司业绩,但将构筑越来越强的竞争优势,我们维持公司“买入”评级。   风险提示:平台商品品质风险,商品供应链拓展风险。

Since May, the company's business has gradually recovered. We predict that 2022Q2 will achieve a revenue of 261.42 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the same period last year, with a net profit of 4.76 billion yuan and a net interest rate of 1.82%. Strong categories stabilized the growth momentum, and income gradually recovered after the impact of the epidemic: online physical retail sales across the country fell by 0.99% in April, the epidemic in first-tier cities intensified, and the growth rate of group retail income was greater than that of the country as a whole. In May, the influence of the epidemic situation gradually weakened, the leading effect of 618 was superimposed, and the month-to-month ratio of income was improved. Although macro consumer demand has not fully recovered in June, due to the backlog of door-to-door installation demand for household appliances gradually released due to the epidemic in April-May, and the high temperature weather that began at the end of June also led to sales of household appliances such as air conditioners, we expect strong categories to stabilize the growth momentum on the income side. Revenue in June is expected to grow by about 10% year-on-year. 2022Q2 revenue will achieve low single-digit growth compared with the same period last year. Epidemic guarantee increases the implementation cost, and the Non-GAAP net interest rate is expected to be the same as the same period last year: April-May epidemic control led to poor logistics in many places, cross-regional transportation, employee protection and other security measures lead to additional costs and expenses, we expect the 2022Q2 implementation cost to increase. The impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized businesses in 3P business has led to a slowdown in business growth, super-micro losses and other factors also have a certain negative impact on the net interest rate. However, considering that the Group focuses on reducing costs and efficiency in this quarter, strictly implementing cost and expense control, adjusting the intensity and rhythm of businesses with a longer cash realization cycle, and logistics business losses continue to narrow, we expect 2022Q2Non-GAAP net profit to remain flat in the same period, with a growth rate of about 1.82%. A number of plans have responded to the epidemic repeatedly, and the loss reduction effect of the new business is remarkable, and the profit margin for the whole year is expected to rise steadily: at present, there are repeated signs of the epidemic in many places across the country, but since April, the group has issued a number of plans to solve problems such as the layout of the warehouse network. In terms of new business, Jingxi has shrunk significantly, and the Group has focused on reducing losses and increasing profits, so we expect profit flexibility to expand in the second half of the year and profit margins to rise steadily for the whole year. Profit forecast and investment rating: the competition pattern in the industry has intensified, and the number of company users has fallen short of Bloomberg's consensus expectations, but the company's revenue still maintains a strong resilience. We maintain our revenue forecast of 11358x12891 hip for 2022-2024. 1471.6 billion yuan. As the company will increase its logistics investment in the future, but other expenses will decline, we maintain our EPS (adjusted) forecast for the past 2022-2024 at 6.5x10.3x15.2, corresponding to a PE of 30.6 / 19.3max 13.0 times (HKD / RMB = 0.8569 / RMB = 0.85692022x07max 12 data). Although the company's continuous investment affects the company's performance in the short term, it will build a stronger and stronger competitive advantage, and we maintain the company's "buy" rating. Risk tips: platform commodity quality risk, commodity supply chain expansion risk.

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