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协鑫科技(03800.HK):分析报告
Xiexin Technology (03800.HK): analysis report

富昌金融集团 ·  {{timeTz}}

簡介 協鑫科技(曾用名:保利協鑫)是全球領先的光伏材料的研發商和制造商。協鑫科技作為中國多晶硅行業引領者,2005 年公司創始人朱共山通過收購多晶硅項目,正式踏入光伏上游原材料領域。2006 年引入西門子法布局多晶硅料產業,並成為中國首間量產多晶硅的本土企業。2007 年11 月赴港上市。2011 年協鑫科技一舉躍至全球多晶硅料及硅片龍頭。2017 年3 月協鑫科技對外宣布完成了對美國SunEdison 的收購,當時SunEdison 掌握了全球FBR 顆粒硅最領先的技術和產能。2019 年,公司在顆粒硅技術商業化獲得突破性進展,具備年產6,000 噸顆粒硅的有效產能。2021年6 月,協鑫科技榮獲中國內地顆粒硅方面首張碳足跡證書,這是中國在顆粒硅領域首張發布的“碳足跡身份證”和權威鑑定書。公司在2021 年7 月申請了法國的“碳足跡認證”,同年10 月27 號取得了法國能源署頒發的碳足跡認證證書。 行業背景 根據國際能源署(IEA)的統計,2021 年全球電力需求增速超6%,導致全球多地電價大幅上漲,天然氣和煤炭的短缺成為電價上漲的主要驅動力。2021 年全球燃煤發電按年增長9%,導致電力行業的二氧化碳年度排放量亦達到歷史最高水平。推進光伏、風電等新能源新增裝機成為全球政府的共識。當前中國光伏發電產業保持著產業規模全球第一、生產制造全球第一的領先地位。根據中國科學院研究測算,以硅基為主的組件產品已佔到光伏裝機市場的97.5%,因此硅基材料決定了太陽能光伏的發展前景。光伏產業鏈上游以原材料硅片、硅料爲主;中游以單晶電池片和多晶電池片的光伏組件爲主;下游則為發電系統環節。中國在光伏產業鏈上游具有絕對的話語權,作爲全球最大的硅料生產國,其硅料出貨量佔比不斷攀升,2021 年的硅料產量高達62.25 萬噸,佔比高達77%,保持全球領先地位。當前全球光伏多晶硅料的97%以上的產能依賴改良西門子法工藝,但該工藝存在著高耗能、工藝繁雜等缺點。硅烷流化床法(FBR)是在改良西門子法工業化後開發的新一代生產工藝,其合成的顆粒硅是更加理想的光伏多晶硅料工藝。不僅生產工序簡單,還具備低耗能、可實現連續化生產、無須破碎硅料引發雜質三大顯著優勢。 優勢 技術壁壘高,極具研發優勢 協鑫科技在光伏市場兩次顛覆性的行業技術革命扮演著引領者的角色,協助其成爲多晶硅的龍頭廠商,不斷擴大核心競爭力。預計其他企業短期內無法實現較大的技術突破。協鑫科技於2009 年開啟中國首個規模化西門子法冷氫化技改項目,引領了當時光伏上游材料端新一輪技術變革。隨即又在硅烷流化床法(FBR)技術深耕十年,終於在2019 獲得突破性進展並開始商業化量產新一代硅基材料---顆粒硅。值得關注的是2017 年3 月協鑫科技對外宣布完成了對美國SunEdison 的收購,當時SunEdison 掌握了全球FBR 顆粒硅最領先的技術和產能。收購後,公司開始耗費巨資對FBR 顆粒硅技術進行技術封鎖並申請獨家專利,協助公司成爲中國唯一一個完整掌握顆粒硅規模化生產的企業。 集團原先業務專注於光伏供應鏈的上游,為光伏行業公司供應多晶硅及硅片等主要原材料,如今業務向中游的單晶電池片和多晶電池片等光伏組件蔓延,憑藉自主研發的鑫多晶系列硅片、鑫單晶系列硅片、直拉單晶系列硅片,進一步搶佔光伏市場。2016 年至2020 年,協鑫科技的平均毛利率僅為27.6%, 自FBR 顆粒硅技術獲得自主研發後,集團2021 年的整體毛利率飆升至37.3%,而2020 年同期則為25.6%。值得關注的是,耗時9 個月,公司在2021 年11 月實現2 萬噸顆粒硅投產。作爲協鑫科技首個模塊化顆粒硅項目,其產能成功落地令市場看好其後續在中國徐州、樂山和包頭等基地的顆粒硅產能項目模塊化擴產工程,預計競爭優勢將持續釋放,驅動其毛利率持續攀升。 節能減排,迎合碳中和政策 硅料行業集中度較高,相關技術和資源掌握在頭部企業。協鑫科技(03800.HK)、通威股份(600438.SH)、新特能源(01799.HK)搶佔的市場份額不相上下,接近14%,大全能源(688303.SH)以12%的市場份額位列第四。CR4(四大企業市場份額總額)高達54%。協鑫科技在硅烷流化床法(FBR)技術深耕十年,作為全中國唯一一間完全掌握FBR 方法的企業,在硅料的生產成本管控上具有很大優勢,具體表現在電耗、水耗、氫耗上。據悉,目前,用FBR 方法目前生產1 千克顆粒硅耗電僅18 度,用西門子法生產1 千克顆粒硅則需耗電60 度。水耗、氫耗方面,用FBR 方法可分別比西門子法降低30%的水耗和42%的氫耗。此外,碳排放方面,1GW 多晶硅料用FBR 方法可比西門子法減排至少13 萬噸二氧化碳。頭部廠商中,僅有協鑫科技深諳FBR 顆粒硅技術,通威股份(600438.SH)、新特能源(01799.HK)、大全能源(688303.SH)均採用改良西門子工藝法。協鑫科技在顆粒硅技術上具有先發優勢和大量的研發布局,助其一直保持技術驅動者地位,驅動全球能源變革。 劣勢 光伏政策變化風險 光伏行業作爲戰略性新興產業,受惠於國家十四五規劃產業政策的推動,獲政府大力發放補貼扶持。值得關注的是中國國家發展和改革委員會的目標在於加快光伏能源產業的技術發展,從而降低開發成本。然而當光伏能源的電價在不久將來下調至燃煤能源的水平時,預計政府對光伏能源產業的補貼會陸續減少。協鑫科技作爲行業龍頭,2021 年獲得的政府補貼為1.06 億人民幣(元,下同),2020 年該項補貼高達1.2 億元,降幅為11.66%,預計相關補貼會逐步降低。此外,光伏行業受政策波動較大,2021 年9 月11 日,國家發改委發布《完善能源消費強度和總量雙控制度方案》,將加強對高耗能高排放項目的管控,未達到能耗強度降低基本目標進度要求的地區,將緩批限批新上高能耗項目,且須實行能耗等量減量替代,對能耗雙控目標完成進度滯後的地區,將合理控制新上高耗能項目投產節奏。晶硅提純過程需要消耗大量電能,最高可達總耗能的72%。雖然協鑫科技的獨家FBR 顆粒硅技術在目前生產1 千克顆粒硅僅耗電18 度,但考慮行業仍採用耗電量相對較大的改良西門子工藝法,不排除生產光伏多晶硅是否會被納入能耗雙控的監管範圍,換而言之,光伏政策變化或抑制光伏行業的產能釋放,進而拖累協鑫科技的未來發展。 協鑫科技的營收與硅料價格密切相關。2018 年6 月1 日,中國國家改革部、財政部、國家能源局聯合發布《關於2018 年光伏發電有關事項的通知》,強調加快光伏發電補貼推波,降低補貼強度。硅片及多晶硅產品平均售價出現大幅下滑,同年協鑫科技的歸母淨利潤由2017 年的23.51 億元跌至-4.58 億元。自2018 年起,公司連續錄得三年虧損。因此,公司啟動戰略調整,逐步出售光伏電站,業務重心傾向於光伏多晶硅料業務。據悉,2018 年至2020 年,協鑫科技累計出售了約3.338GW光伏電站,總回收現金流約60.84 億元。截至2020 年底,公司多晶硅業務佔比已從2017 年的3.22%躍升至2020 年的15.09%,然而同期的多晶硅價格處於歷史低位,該業務僅貢獻營收23.25 億元。自2021 年起,硅料價格進入順週期增長,今年7 月6 日,中國有色金屬工業協會硅業分會發布的太陽能多晶硅最新價格顯示,單晶復投料在每噸28.8 萬元和每噸30 萬元左右,意味著今年7 月多晶硅的報價已達300 元每公斤,回歸至10 年前的高位。協鑫科技在2021 年實現扭虧爲盈。預計在硅料資源緊缺且價格高企的情況下,公司2022 年業績會迎來新一輪爆發。但不確定行業是否能持續高景氣,不排除政府後期或出台相關政策監管和抑制有關價格,建議審慎投資。 投資建議 看好協鑫科技作爲中國多晶硅行業引領者的地位,首予協鑫科技“優於大市”評級,目標價為4.5 元。預計公司2022-2024 年實現歸母淨利潤分別為60 億元、69.75億元、78 億元,按年增長18%、16.25%、12%;建議逢低買進,長期持有。

To introduce you. Yuanxin Technology (formerly known as Poly Xianxin) is the world's leading developer and manufacturer of photovoltaic materials. As the leader of China's polysilicon industry, Zhu Gongshan, the founder of the company in 2005, officially stepped into the field of raw materials in the upstream of photovoltaic by receiving the polysilicon project. In 2006, the Xizi method was introduced to lay out the polysilicon industry, and it became the first local enterprise in China to produce polysilicon. Listed in Hong Kong in November 2007. In 2011, Yuanxin Technology reached polysilicon materials and wafers all over the world. In March 2017, Yuanxin Science and Technology announced the completion of the acquisition of SunEdison from the United States, when SunEdison mastered the world's leading technology and production capacity of FBR silicon. In 2019, the company has made a breakthrough in fine silicon technology, with an effective production capacity of 6000 tons of silicon per year. In June 2021, Xianxin Science and Technology launched the first carbon footprint certificate and authority certificate issued by China in the field of grain silicon. The company applied for the French carbon foot Certificate in July 2021, and obtained the carbon foot Certificate issued by the French Energy Agency on October 27 of the same year. Industry background According to the statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the growth rate of global power demand in 2021 is more than 6%, which led to a substantial increase in the price of electricity in many places around the world, and the shortage of natural gas and coal has become the main driving force. In 2021, global coal-fired production will grow at an annual rate of 9%, and annual carbon dioxide emissions from the power industry will also reach an all-time high. The promotion of new energy sources such as photovoltaic and solar power has become a common understanding of governments all over the world. At present, China's photovoltaic power generation industry maintains the leading position of the world's largest production model and the first world leader in production and manufacturing. According to the research and calculation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, silicon-based component products have accounted for 97.5% of the photovoltaic market, so silicon-based materials determine the development prospect of too-energy photovoltaic. The upstream of the photovoltaic industry is dominated by raw material silicon wafers and silicon materials; in the middle reaches, the photovoltaic components are dominated by single crystal and polycrystalline battery wafers; and the downstream is the development system environment. As the world's largest producer of silicon, China has a fair share of rights in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry, and its silicon output continues to rise. In 2021, the output of silicon reached 62.25 million tons, accounting for 77 percent of the total, maintaining a leading position in the world. In the past, more than 97% of the output of photovoltaic polysilicon materials in the world was based on the improved Xizi process, but there are some shortcomings such as high energy consumption and labor complexity. The silane fluidized bed process (FBR) is a new generation of production equipment developed after the modification of the Siraz process, and the synthesized granular silicon is a more ideal photovoltaic polysilicon material. Continuous production process list, equipment with low energy consumption, reliable chemical production, no need to crush silicon material to trigger the three major problems. Cymbals The technology wall is high, and the R & D equipment is excellent. Xianxin Technology plays a leading role in the repeated industry technological revolution in the photovoltaic city, helping it to become a leader in the development of polysilicon. It is expected that other enterprises will not be able to achieve significant technological breakthroughs in the short term. In 2009, Xianxin Technology opened China's first large-scale Western cooling technological renovation project, which introduced a new technological revolution in the upstream material terminal of photovoltaic. After ten years of deep work in silane fluidized bed (FBR) technology, he made a breakthrough in 2019 and began to produce a new generation of silicon-based materials-silicon. It is worth noting that in March 2017, Yuanxin Science and Technology announced the completion of the acquisition of SunEdison in the United States, when SunEdison mastered the world's most advanced technology and production capacity of FBR silicon. After the close, the company began to spend a lot of money on the technical seal of FBR silicon technology and applied for a patent, helping the company to become the only enterprise in China that has a complete grasp of the conventional production of silicon grain. In the past, the collection company focused on the upstream of the photovoltaic supply chain, supplying major raw materials such as polysilicon and silicon wafers for photovoltaic industry companies, but now the service has spread to photovoltaic components such as monocrystalline and polycrystalline battery wafers in the middle reaches. Thanks to the independently developed Xin polycrystalline wafers, Xinzhujing series wafers, and Czochralski single crystal series wafers, they further occupy the photovoltaic market. From 2016 to 2020, the average gross profit margin of Yuanxin Technology was 27.6%. After the independent research and development of FBR silicon technology, the overall gross profit margin rose to 37.3% in 2021, compared with 25.6% in the same period in 2020. It is worth noting that it took 9 months for the company to realize the production of 20,000 grains of silicon in November 2021. As the first model silicon production project of Xianxin Technology, its successful production has made the market optimistic about the subsequent grain silicon energy production projects in Xuzhou, Langshan and Baotou bases in China, and the planned production capacity will continue to be released, driving its gross profit margin to continue to rise. "Energy" row to cater to the policy of carbon neutralization The concentration of the silicon industry is high, and related technologies and resources are in the hands of other enterprises. Yuanxin Technology (03800.HK), Tongwei (600438.SH) and New Special Energy (01799.HK) are neck and neck, with nearly 14% of the market share, while Daquan Energy (688303.SH) ranks fourth with 12%. CR4 (the total share of the four major enterprise cities) is as high as 54%. Yuanxin Science and Technology has been engaged in silane fluidized bed (FBR) technology for ten years. As the only enterprise in China that has fully mastered the FBR method, it has great difficulties in controlling the production cost of silicon materials, specifically in terms of power consumption, water consumption and consumption. It has been learned that at present, the power consumption of producing 1 kilogram of silicon grain by FBR method is only 18 degrees, while it takes 60 degrees to produce 1 kilogram silicon grain by Xi Xi method. In terms of water consumption and consumption, the FBR method can reduce the water consumption by 30% and the consumption by 42% compared with the Xizi method, respectively. In addition, in terms of carbon emissions, the FBR method can emit at least 130,000 tons of carbon dioxide from 1GW polysilicon materials. Among the brokerage companies, only Yuanxin Technology is deeply involved in FBR silicon technology, while Tongwei Stock (600438.SH), New Special Energy (01799.HK) and Daquan Energy (688303.SH) all use the improved Ximizi method. Yuanxin Technology has a leading role in silicon technology and a large number of R & D layout, which helps it to maintain its status as a technology driver and revolutionize the global energy revolution. Shoddy Photovoltaic policy "change" As a strategic new industry, the photovoltaic industry has benefited from the promotion of the state's 14th five-year plan industry policy, and the government has made great efforts to provide financial support. It is worth noting that the goal of China's Development and Reform Commission is to speed up the technological development of the photovoltaic energy industry and thus reduce the cost of development. However, when the power generation of photovoltaic energy falls to the level of coal-fired energy in the near future, it is expected that the government's commitment to the photovoltaic industry will continue to decline. In 2021, the amount of government expenditure awarded by Linxin Science and Technology is 160 million yuan, and in 2020 it is as high as 120 million yuan, a decrease of 11.66%. It is expected that the related expenditure will gradually decrease. In addition, the photovoltaic industry is greatly affected by the policy. On September 11, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Plan for improving the Control system of Energy consumption intensity and Total quantity", which will strengthen the control and control of projects with high energy consumption and high emissions. areas that do not meet the requirements for reducing the basic target of energy consumption, strictly restrict the approval of new high energy consumption projects, and must implement energy consumption equal quantity substitution to the areas after the completion of energy consumption control. The production of new high energy-consuming projects will be reasonably controlled. The process of crystal silicon lifting requires a large amount of electricity, up to 72% of the total energy consumption. Although the leading FBR granular silicon technology of Xianxin Technology consumes only 18 degrees per kilogram of silicon at present, the industry still uses the improved Siraz method, which consumes a lot of power, and does not rule out whether the production of photovoltaic polysilicon will be included in the regulatory range of energy consumption control. in other words, photovoltaic policies restrict or restrain the production capacity of the photovoltaic industry, thus dragging down the future development of Xin Technology. The revenue of Yuanxin technology is closely related to the silicon material. On June 1, 2018, the Ministry of Reform, the Ministry of political Affairs and the State Energy Administration jointly issued the Circular on issues related to Photovoltaic Generation in 2018, strengthening the acceleration of photovoltaic generation and reducing the intensity of photovoltaic power. The average sales of silicon wafers and polysilicon products have dropped sharply. In the same year, the profit of Xianxin Technology's mother fell to-458 million yuan from 23.51 yuan in 2017. Since 2018, the company has recorded a record for three consecutive years. As a result, the company has launched a strategic restructuring to gradually sell photovoltaic stations, focusing on photovoltaic polysilicon materials. It has been learned that from 2018 to 2020, Xianxin Technology cumulatively sold about 3.338GW photovoltaic stations, with a total recovery of about 6.084 billion yuan. By the end of 2020, the company's share of polysilicon business had increased from 3.22% in 2017 to 15.09% in 2020, while the proportion of polysilicon sales in the same period was at an all-time low, with a revenue of 2.325 billion yuan. Since 2021, silicon materials have entered a period of rapid growth. On July 6 this year, the latest energy polysilicon issued by the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association Silicon Branch shows that the input of single crystal is about 288 yuan per kilogram and 300,000 yuan per kilogram, which means that the report of polysilicon in July this year has reached 300 yuan per kilogram, returning to the high level 10 years ago. Yuanxin Science and Technology has made a profit in 2021. It is expected that in the face of a shortage of silicon resources and a high level of silicon resources, the company will meet a new outbreak in 2022. However, we are not sure whether the industry can maintain a high level of prosperity, and we do not rule out the possibility that the government will introduce relevant policies to supervise and restrain relevant policies in the later period. Make a suggestion It is optimistic that Xianxin Science and Technology is the leader of China's polysilicon industry, and it is first granted to Xianxin Science and Technology to be "in the big market" level, with a target of 4.5 yuan. From 2022 to 2024, the company realized parent profits of 6 billion yuan, 6.975 billion yuan and 7.8 billion yuan, respectively, with an annual growth rate of 18%, 16.25% and 12%.

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