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蔚来-SW(9866.HK):电池收入确认存在合理性 过量采购缺乏依据
NIO Inc.-SW (9866.HK): there is a lack of basis for battery revenue confirmation to be reasonable and over-purchasing.

海通国际 ·  {{timeTz}}

  事件   当地时间6 月28 日,做空机构Grizzly Research 发布报告,称蔚来利用关联方武汉蔚能电池资产有限公司(“蔚能电池”)夸大收入和盈利能力。其核心观点主要基于《武汉蔚能电池资产有限公司2022 年度第一期绿色电池资产支持票据募集说明书》(“ABN 募集说明书”)及蔚来汽车财报数据,认为蔚来汽车向关联方蔚能电池出售的电池数量远大于实际需求,且存在提前确认收入的情况,虚增了收入和净利润。   点评   电池所有权转移后即可确认收入。从商业模式来看,BaaS(Battery as a Service)下电池的销售模式类似传统汽车金融,即电池出售给电池资产公司(蔚能电池),BaaS 用户作为承租人与其签订电池租用协议,通过每月支付月租获得电池使用权,动力电池所有权转移后整车厂商即可确认收入。   19,000 份合约仅为一期标的资产。该报告以蔚能电池披露的19,000 份电池合约而2021 年三季度末40,053 块电池存货为依据判断公司存在过量采购来夸大蔚来营收。事实上,该数据引用自蔚能电池ABN 募集说明书,19,000 为该公司第一期ABN 标的资产池内合约数量,仅为部分BaaS 用户数量。对于剩余BaaS 合约,蔚能电池仍可继续发行ABN 扩大资产池规模。   电池资产采购并非过量。同时,尽管ABN 募集说明书中并未披露总体合约数目,我们根据其披露的蔚能电池营收数据和月租结构,并结合蔚来车辆交付情况,估算截止到3Q20 的BaaS 用户数量(即合约数量)应在21,340 至49,350 之间,此范围明显超出19,000,且由于边界情况极为严苛,我们有理由认为实际BaaS 合约数目远超19,000份,故此不能推断电池资产存在过量情形。   综上,我们认为Grizzly Research 报告所示结论缺乏合理依据。基于蔚能电池商业模式,蔚来汽车BaaS 模式下电池销售的收入确认具备合理性,且报告引用的数据无法推断蔚能电池存在过量采购以夸大蔚来汽车业绩情况。我们仍看好蔚来长期发展。   风险   BaaS 用户违约风险;电池资产公司运营及业务发展不及预期等。

Event On June 28, local time, the short seller Grizzly Research released a report saying that NIO Inc. used the related party Wuhan Suneng Battery Asset Co., Ltd. ("Yueneng Battery") to exaggerate income and profitability. Its core point of view is mainly based on the "Wuhan Weineng Battery assets Co., Ltd. 2022 first phase of green battery asset-backed bill prospectus" ("ABN prospectus") and NIO Inc. automobile financial report data, that NIO Inc. automobile to related parties to sell the number of batteries far greater than the actual demand, and there is a recognition of revenue in advance, falsely increased income and net profit. Comment Revenue can be recognized after the transfer of battery ownership. From the point of view of the business model, the battery sales model under BaaS (Battery as a Service) is similar to the traditional auto finance, that is, the battery is sold to the battery asset company (Yueneng battery), and the BaaS user signs the battery lease agreement with it as the lessee, and obtains the battery use right by paying monthly rent, and the whole vehicle manufacturer can confirm the income after the power battery ownership is transferred. 19000 contracts are only the underlying assets of the first tranche. The report exaggerated NIO Inc. 's revenue based on the disclosure of 19000 battery contracts and the inventory of 40053 batteries at the end of the third quarter of 2021. In fact, the data is quoted from the Weineng battery ABN prospectus. 19000 is the number of contracts in the pool of the company's first phase of ABN, which is only part of the number of BaaS users. For the remaining BaaS contracts, Xuneng Battery can continue to issue ABN to expand the asset pool. Battery asset purchases are not excessive. At the same time, although the total number of contracts is not disclosed in the ABN prospectus, based on the disclosed revenue data and monthly rent structure of Violet batteries, and combined with the delivery of NIO Inc. vehicles, we estimate that the number of BaaS users up to 3Q20 (that is, the number of contracts) should be between 21340 and 49350, which obviously exceeds 195000. and because the boundary conditions are extremely harsh, we have reason to think that the actual number of BaaS contracts far exceeds 19000. Therefore, it cannot be inferred that there is an excess of battery assets. To sum up, we believe that the conclusions of the Grizzly Research report lack reasonable basis. Based on the business model of Xuneng battery, the revenue of battery sales under NIO Inc. 's BaaS model is confirmed to be reasonable, and the data cited in the report can not infer that there is overpurchase of XNeng battery to exaggerate NIO Inc. 's performance. We are still optimistic about the long-term development of NIO Inc.. Risk. BaaS user default risk; Battery assets Company operation and business development is not as expected.

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