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京东集团-SW(09618.HK):续约腾讯战略合作 平台经济发挥协同价值
JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK): renew Tencent's strategic cooperation platform economy to exert synergy value

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事件 6 月29 日,公司与腾讯充续战略合作协议,为期三年。腾讯将继续在微信平台上为公司提供显著的一级及二级访问入口以提供流量支持,且双方亦有意继续在通信、技术服务、营销、广告及会员服务等多领域合作,有关合作的价值预期将于未来三年以现金及股份相结合的形式支付或投放。 评论 合作进一步深化,加强技术和供应链方面合作。京东和腾讯的战略合作自2014 年起一直延续至今,合作内容从移动端产品、支付,到社交媒体服务、广告采买、会员服务,到如今的通信、技术服务。技术合作方面,拟在人工智能、信息安全等领域进行开拓;供应链服务方面,京东将充分发挥优势提供边缘计算、数智采购、工业互联、供应链金融等方面服务。 广告、营销及会员合作长期贯穿,有望在互联互通推动下有更大合作空间。互联互通加速推进的过程中,电商流量破圈至用户基数更大的社交流量,有望带动新用户增长,同时微信场景内用户的电商消费标签有望细化,对于营销和广告上的合作有更大空间。据测算,当前京东来自微信九宫格的活跃用户约为App 的6%,来自京东微信小程序的GMV 约为App 的10%,京喜聚焦下沉市场,对微信生态的依赖相对更高,品类上更偏家居、服饰、食品等,和京东在品类和用户群体上有效实现互补。 投资建议 稳定长期的战略合作,对双方互惠互利,有助于为用户提供方便、快捷、优质的购物体验。京东自营+供应链的模式壁垒深厚,预计2022-2024E 收入和归母净利润分别为11155 亿元/13494 亿元/16230 亿元, 170 亿元/173亿元/190 亿元,对应EPS 为5.44 元/5.55 元/6.07 元,给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 疫情反复冲击供应链,消费需求走弱,用户增长不及预期,竞争加剧等。

Event On June 29, the company renewed the strategic cooperation agreement with Tencent for a period of three years. Tencent will continue to provide the company with significant first-and second-tier access portals on the Wechat platform to provide traffic support, and the two sides also intend to continue to cooperate in the fields of communications, technical services, marketing, advertising and membership services, the value of the cooperation is expected to be paid or put in the form of cash and shares in the next three years. Comment Cooperation has been further deepened and cooperation in technology and supply chain has been strengthened. The strategic cooperation between JD.com and Tencent has continued since 2014, ranging from mobile products and payments to social media services, advertising buying and membership services, to today's communications and technical services. In terms of technical cooperation, it is planned to develop in the fields of artificial intelligence and information security; in terms of supply chain services, JD.com will give full play to his advantages to provide services such as edge computing, digital intelligence procurement, industrial interconnection, supply chain finance, and so on. Advertising, marketing and member cooperation run through for a long time, and there is expected to be more room for cooperation under the promotion of interconnection. With the acceleration of interconnection, the breakage of e-commerce traffic to the social flow with a larger user base is expected to lead to the growth of new users, while the e-commerce consumption tags of users in the Wechat scene are expected to be refined. there is more room for cooperation in marketing and advertising. It is estimated that currently JD.com 's active users from WeChat Nine Gongge are about 6% of App, and the GMV from JD.com and WeChat Mini Programs is about 10% of App. Jingxi focuses on the sinking market, and is relatively more dependent on the ecology of Wechat. Category is more household, clothing, food and so on, and JD.com can effectively complement each other in category and user group. Investment suggestion Stable long-term strategic cooperation is mutually beneficial to both sides, and helps to provide users with a convenient, fast and high-quality shopping experience. JD.com 's self-management + supply chain model has deep barriers. It is estimated that the income and net profit of 2022-2024E are 1.1155 trillion yuan / 1.3494 trillion yuan / 1.623 trillion yuan, 17 billion yuan / 17.3 billion yuan / 19 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 5.44 yuan / 17.3 billion yuan / 6.07 yuan. Risk hint The epidemic repeatedly hits the supply chain, consumer demand weakens, user growth falls short of expectations, competition intensifies, and so on.

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