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协鑫科技(03800.HK):需求提升叠加产能释放 硅料有望量价齐升
Xiexin Technology (03800.HK): increased demand, superimposed capacity, release of silicon materials are expected to rise in both quantity and price.

国泰君安国际 ·  {{timeTz}}

  协鑫科技主要从事光伏材料制造和销售,为全球领先的硅基材料供应商。公司主要通过光伏材料业务分部、新能源业务分部和光伏电站业务分部三个部门运营业务。   2021年业绩扭亏为盈,各项指标得到改善:2021年公司实现营收197.0亿元(人民币,下同),同比+34.3%,主要得益于光伏产品销售价格上涨;实现归母净利润50.8亿元,远高于去年同期的亏损56.7亿元,扭亏为盈,其中光伏材料业务实现利润55.3亿元:整体毛利率37.3%,同比+11.7pcts,其中光伏材料业务毛利率为32.9%,同比大幅+29.6pcts,推动整体盈利能力实现大幅提升。   徐州基地新增产能落地,年内产能将进一步增加:6月16日,公司徐州基地新增3万吨FBR颗粒硅产能成功投产,该项目仅用时8个月就实现投产,远低于市场预期。此外,公司还在内蒙古、四川、江苏等地分别规划建设多个10万吨级颗粒硅生产基地,预计年内公司硅料产能将达到36万吨。   国内外政策利好光伏产业发展:国内方面,近期由国家发改委、国家能源局发布的《关于促进新时代新能源高质量发展的实施方案》,强调要加快推进大型风电光伏基地建设;多部委联合发布的《“十四五”可再生能源规划》,提出“十四五”期间风光发电量实现翻倍的目标。海外方面,在俄乌冲突加剧欧洲能源危机的背景下,欧盟为加速可再生能源转型,公布REPowerEU行动方案,设定光伏累计装机量2025年达320GW、2030年达600GW的目标。美国政府宣布豁免东南亚四国的光伏组件关税,并将光伏用地租赁价格调低逾62%。在多重利好政策刺激下,预计海内外光伏装机量将持续加速增长,硅料作为光伏产业链上游关键部分,需求有望持续提升。投资建议:预计硅料供需将持续趋紧,价格将随之维持高位,同时公司产能将在下半年加速释放,硅料有望实现量价齐升,看好公司业绩增长前景,推荐买入。

Xiexin Technology, which is mainly engaged in the manufacture and sales of photovoltaic materials, is the world's leading supplier of silicon-based materials. The company mainly operates business through three departments: photovoltaic materials business division, new energy business division and photovoltaic power station business division. The performance turned from deficit to profit in 2021, and various indicators were improved: the company realized revenue of 19.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in 2021, which was + 34.3% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the sales price of photovoltaic products. The net profit of returning home was 5.08 billion yuan, much higher than the loss of 5.67 billion yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits, of which the photovoltaic materials business achieved a profit of 5.53 billion yuan: the overall gross profit margin was 37.3%, year-on-year + 11.7pcts, of which the photovoltaic materials business gross profit margin was 32.9%, significantly + 29.6pcts compared with the same period last year, promoting the overall profitability to be greatly improved. The new production capacity of the Xuzhou base will be further increased this year: on June 16, the company successfully put into production 30, 000 tons of FBR granular silicon at the Xuzhou base, and the project took only 8 months to start production, far below market expectations. In addition, the company also plans to build a number of 100000-ton granular silicon production bases in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Jiangsu and other places, and it is estimated that the company's silicon production capacity will reach 360000 tons this year. Domestic and foreign policies are good for the development of photovoltaic industry: domestically, the "implementation Plan for promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in a New era" recently issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes the need to speed up the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases; the "14th five-year Plan for Renewable Energy" jointly issued by many ministries and commissions puts forward the goal of doubling landscape power generation during the 14th five-year Plan period. Overseas, in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine aggravating the energy crisis in Europe, the European Union, in order to accelerate the transformation of renewable energy, announced the REPowerEU action plan, setting the goal of accumulating photovoltaic capacity to reach 320GW by 2025 and 600GW by 2030. The US government announced that it would exempt four Southeast Asian countries from tariffs on photovoltaic modules and reduced the lease price of photovoltaic land by more than 62%. Under the stimulation of multiple favorable policies, it is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaic at home and abroad will continue to accelerate growth, silicon as a key part of the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, the demand is expected to continue to increase. Investment advice: Silicon supply and demand is expected to continue to tighten, prices will remain high, while the company's production capacity will be accelerated in the second half of the year, silicon is expected to achieve volume and price rise, optimistic about the company's performance growth prospects, recommended to buy.

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