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蔚来-SW(09866.HK):高端智能电动领跑者 NT2.0注入全新增长动能
NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK): high-end intelligent electric leader NT2.0 injects new growth momentum

中金公司 ·  {{timeTz}}

  首次覆盖   投资亮点   首次覆盖蔚来-SW(09866)给予跑赢行业评级,目标价196.00 港元,基于EV/Revenue,对应2022 年4.0 倍的EV/Revenue 估值倍数。理由如下:   高端智能电动领跑者,以优质服务重塑商业模式。公司早期通过国际锦标赛和EP9 超跑快速建立品牌和实力认知,后续以卓越服务和差异性的换电模式形成差异化。此外,公司在营销上独辟蹊径,通过线上NIOAPP,线下蔚来中心和蔚来空间等多维度共同发力构筑蔚来生态,利用NIO Life 打造圈层社交以提升品牌调性、强化高端形象认知。我们认为公司商业模式稀缺,前置投入的服务体系及充换电网络均成为护城河。   NT2.0 蓄势待发,大众品牌带动中长期增量。公司产品矩阵持续拓宽,现已初步形成8667 四款SUV 及 ET7/5 两款轿车的布局,在高端纯电市场的竞争力强,2024 年更是计划通过全新子品牌进入到大众市场。短期来看,我们认为2022 年NT2.0 强势的车型周期蓄势待发,有望带动销量逐步攀升。而中长期的全新大众品牌的量产,我们预计有望带动公司实现在底层的技术研发和充换电等服务体系上的规模效应。   从电动化领先到智能驾驶全栈自研,自研电池及NAD 为下一个胜负手。   公司专注于在核心的智能电动化技术实现突破,电动化方面,公司旗下XPT 蔚然动力具备电驱全栈自研及制造能力,累计出货量位于行业前列。电池方面,则通过深度自研及开放合作、战投等方式,收获了如三元铁锂和半固态电池等丰厚的技术储备。智能驾驶领域,公司则聚焦全栈自研,年末计划推出NAD,我们预计有望成为下一个胜负手。   我们与市场的最大不同?我们认为服务体验与深度自研的智能电动化技术有望构筑公司的护城河,同时随着大众市场车型的布局加速,ET5 及大众品牌车型交付有望带动公司进入规模化战场,基本面持续向好。   潜在催化剂:ET5 等全新车型放量,NAD 自动驾驶系统升级和新功能落地,布局电池自研优化成本控制能力,规模效应持续体现。   盈利预测与估值   我们预计公司2022~2023 年EPS 分别为-5.03 元、-1.34 元。当前美股/港股对应3.2/1.6 倍2022/23 年EV/Revenue,考虑到2022 款866 及ES7 发布带动基本面改善,上调美股目标价8.7%至25 美元,对应港股目标价196 港币(汇率折算),对应公司2022/23 年4.0/2.0 倍EV/Revenue,分别存在30.3%/26.2%的上行空间。首次覆盖港股给予跑赢行业评级,维持美股跑赢行业评级不变。   风险   疫情及供应链风险;合肥协议回购风险;销量波动风险;政策环境风险。

First coverage Investment highlight Cover NIO Inc.-SW (09866) for the first time to rate the outperforming industry, with a target price of HK $196.00, based on EV/Revenue, corresponding to a valuation multiple of 4.0 times EV/Revenue in 2022. The reasons are as follows: The high-end intelligent electric leader reshapes the business model with high-quality service. In the early days, the company quickly established brand and strength awareness through international championships and EP9 supercars, followed by excellent service and different power exchange modes to form differentiation. In addition, the company has found a unique way in marketing, through online NIOAPP, offline NIO Inc. Center and NIO Inc. Space and other multi-dimensional efforts to build NIO Inc. ecology, the use of NIO Life to create a social circle to enhance brand tonality and strengthen high-end image awareness. We believe that the company's business model is scarce, and the pre-input service system and recharging network have become a moat. NT2.0 is poised to start, and Volkswagen brands drive medium-and long-term increments. The company's product matrix continues to expand, has initially formed the layout of four SUV and ET7/5 cars in 8667, has strong competitiveness in the high-end pure electricity market, and plans to enter the mass market through the new sub-brand in 2024. In the short term, we believe that the strong model cycle of the NT2.0 in 2022 is ready to lead to a gradual increase in sales. In the medium and long term, the mass production of the new Volkswagen brand is expected to lead the company to achieve economies of scale in the underlying technology research and development, recharging and other service systems. From motorized leadership to intelligent driving self-research, self-developed batteries and NAD are the next winners and losers. The company focuses on achieving breakthroughs in the core intelligent electrification technology. In terms of electrification, the company's XPT Weiran Power has the ability of self-research and manufacturing of the whole stack of electric drive, and the cumulative shipment is in the forefront of the industry. In terms of batteries, through in-depth self-research and open cooperation, war investment and other ways, such as ternary lithium iron and semi-solid batteries and other rich technical reserves. In the field of intelligent driving, the company focuses on full-stack self-research, and plans to launch NAD at the end of the year. We expect to be the next winner or loser. What is the biggest difference between us and the market? We believe that service experience and deeply self-developed intelligent motorized technology are expected to build the company's moat, while with the acceleration of the layout of mass market models, the delivery of ET5 and Volkswagen brand models is expected to lead the company into a large-scale battlefield, and the fundamentals continue to improve. Potential catalysts: volume of new models such as ET5, upgrade of NAD autopilot system and landing of new functions, self-development of layout battery to optimize cost control capability, and continuous realization of scale effect. Profit forecast and valuation We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2022-2023 will be-5.03 yuan and-1.34 yuan respectively. At present, US stocks / Hong Kong stocks correspond to 3.2 Universe 1.6 times 2022 EV/Revenue 23. Considering the improvement of fundamentals led by the release of 2022 models 866 and ES7, the target price of US stocks is raised by 8.7% to US $25, corresponding to the target price of HK $196 (exchange rate translation), and the company's 202223 4.0 EV/Revenue 2.0 times Universe. There is 30.3% 26.2% upside space respectively. For the first time, Hong Kong stocks were given outperforming industry ratings, while US stocks' outperforming industry ratings remained unchanged. Risk. Epidemic situation and supply chain risk; Hefei agreement buyback risk; sales fluctuation risk; policy environmental risk.

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