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协鑫科技(03800.HK):颗粒硅产能投放进度超预期 硅料高价周期延续
Xiexin Technology (03800.HK): the production capacity of granular silicon is faster than expected and the cycle of high price of silicon material continues.

中金公司 ·  {{timeTz}}

  公司动态   公司近况   根据公司官网,6 月16 日,徐州基地新增3 万吨FBR颗粒硅产能成功投产1,我们认为投产速度超出市场预期。   评论   颗粒硅产能持续落地,各项指标持续优化,支撑公司长期稳健增长。此次徐州基地3 万吨FBR颗粒硅产能成功投产,建设投产速度超出市场预期。同时公司预计乐山基地10 万吨预期今年7 月投产,年底达产;包头基地10 万吨保守预计10 月投产,1H23 满产,综上我们预计2022 年底公司颗粒硅有效产能将达到26 万吨,全年有效产量按计划约为7 万吨。根据公司,徐州已投产3 万吨颗粒硅综合电耗14.8kWh/kg,综合蒸汽单耗15.3kg/kg,同时公司颗粒硅单程转化率可达99%,90%可用于单晶,且当前N型用料已通过小批量验证,反馈良好。我们认为公司产能的顺利落地叠加指标的持续优化,公司长期成长可期。   国内外光伏装机需求高景气,我们看好硅料作为供需最紧的子环节之一有望继续受益,看好硅料高价为公司颗粒硅新技术带来发展机遇期:   国内来看,根据能源局数据,5 月光伏新增装机6.83GW,同比+141%,环比+86%,1-5 月累计光伏装机23.71GW,同比+129%,我们认为分布式由于低成本、高收益率,需求韧性足;地面电站今年增量项目有序推进,综合来看我们看好2022 年国内需求同增55%至85GW; 海外来看,根据PVInfoLink,2022 年1-4 月累计出口至欧洲24.4GW组件同增+144%,在电价大幅提升以及RepowerEU政策刺激下,我们预计欧洲2022 光伏装机同增60-100%至40-50GW;美国政府拟在未来24 个月对东南亚组件进口额外关税进行豁免2,我们预计组件企业对美国发货量有望陆续修复;我们看好2022 年海外需求140-150GW,同增30-40%。   盈利预测与估值   考虑硅料高价延续,我们上调2022/2023 年净利润21%/52%至129.5/109.7 亿元(基于2022/2023 年硅料均价220 元/kg、130 元/kg),当前股价对应2022/2023 年5.7/6.7 倍市盈率,维持跑赢行业评级,考虑市场催化在三季度爬坡和成本验证,我们目前维持目标价4.00 港币不变,上行空间27%,目标价对应2022/2023 年7.2/8.5 倍市盈率。   风险   光伏终端需求不及预期,其他光伏原辅材料供给瓶颈超预期。

Company trends The current situation of the company According to the company's website, on June 16, Xuzhou base successfully put into production 30,000 tons of FBR granular silicon, and we believe that the speed of putting into production exceeds market expectations. Comment The production capacity of granular silicon continues to fall to the ground, and various indicators continue to be optimized to support the company's long-term steady growth. The production capacity of 30,000 tons of FBR granular silicon in Xuzhou base has been successfully put into production, and the speed of construction and production has exceeded market expectations. At the same time, the company expects 100000 tons of Leshan base to be put into production in July this year and reach production by the end of this year; 100000 tons of Baotou base is conservatively expected to be put into production in October and full production of 1H23. To sum up, we estimate that the company's effective production capacity of granular silicon will reach 260000 tons by the end of 2022, and the effective output for the whole year is about 70,000 tons as planned. According to the company, Xuzhou has put into production 30,000 tons of granular silicon comprehensive power consumption 14.8kWh/kg, comprehensive steam unit consumption 15.3kg/kg, while the company granular silicon single-pass conversion rate of 99% 90% can be used in single crystals, and the current N-type materials have passed small batch verification, and the feedback is good. We believe that the smooth landing of the company's production capacity, the continuous optimization of the overlay index, the company's long-term growth is expected. With the high demand for photovoltaic equipment at home and abroad, we are optimistic that silicon will continue to benefit as one of the tightest sub-links of supply and demand, and that the high price of silicon will bring opportunities for the development of the company's new granular silicon technology: Domestically, according to the data of the Energy Bureau, the newly installed photovoltaic 6.83GW in May is + 141% compared with the same period last year, and the month-on-month ratio is + 86%. From January to May, the cumulative installed photovoltaic 23.71GW, year on year + 129%, we think that distributed due to low cost, high rate of return, demand resilience; ground power plant incremental projects this year orderly progress, overall, we are optimistic that domestic demand will increase 55% to 85GW in 2022. Overseas, according to the cumulative export of 24.4GW modules to Europe by + 144% from January to April of PVInfoLink,2022, we expect 2022 photovoltaic installations in Europe to increase by 60-100% to 40-50GW with the sharp increase in electricity prices and the stimulation of RepowerEU policy. The US government plans to exempt the import of Southeast Asian components from additional tariffs in the next 24 months. 2, we expect component companies to repair US shipments one after another. We are optimistic that overseas demand for 140-150GW in 2022 will increase by 30-40 per cent. Profit forecast and valuation Considering the continuation of high silicon prices, we increase the net profit of 2022Universe 2023 by 21% scarp 52% to 129.5 gambit 10.97 billion (based on the 2022apt 2023 average silicon price of 220,130 / kg / kg). The current share price corresponds to the price / earnings ratio of 5.7pm / kg of 2022max in 2023, maintaining the industry rating of outperforming. Considering the market catalysis climbing and cost verification in the third quarter, we currently maintain the target price of HK $4.00 and upside space of 27%. The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2cm in 2023 to 8.5 times earnings. Risk. The demand of photovoltaic terminal is lower than expected, and the supply bottleneck of other photovoltaic raw and auxiliary materials is higher than expected.

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