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蔚来-SW(09866.HK)季报点评:毛利率尚承压 后续交付有望强势恢复
NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) Quarterly report comments: gross margin is still under pressure and follow-up delivery is expected to recover strongly

国盛证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

蔚来2022Q1 业绩符合预期,6 月交付有望加速恢复。公司2022Q1 年实现交付2.6 万辆,营收99.1 亿元,同比增长24%,Q1 non-GAAP 归属普通股股东净亏损12.9 亿元,较2021Q4 环比收窄4.3 亿元,符合预期。 公司2022Q2 指引为销量2.3-2.5 万台,营收93.4-100.9 亿元,同比增张10.6%-19.4%,据公司Q2 销量指引及周度交付恢复情况,我们预计公司6 月份交付量将达1.1-1.3 万台,较4/5 月有望加速恢复。 6 月将发布新车型ES7,产能保障下半年销量快速增长。车型端,公司预计将于6 月15 日发布新车型ES7,定位为中大型5 座SUV,基于NT2.0平台打造,价格带预计介于ES6/ES8 之间,将于8 月下旬开启交付。我们预计,随复工复产加速及补贴政策刺激,三款已有车型交付量将持续恢复;下半年,公司将迎来ET7 爬产完成、ES7/ET5 开启交付,Q3/Q4 整体交付量有望快速增长。产能端,ES7/ET7 将于江淮工厂生产,ET5 将于合肥新工厂下线。目前江淮工厂产能已基本恢复,下半年有望扩产至2 万台/月;新工厂预计于Q3 开启交付,年底产能有望爬至1 万台/月,将有力保障交付增长。销售服务端,公司将持续加密销售及充换电网络,夯实便捷补能优势。截至Q1,公司拥有381 个蔚来中心和蔚来空间、247 家服务中心和交付中心;已经建成超960 座换电站、 829 座超充站和4140个目的地充电桩。 NOP+功能预计Q3 落地,加大研发投入坚持深度自研。公司在智能驾驶领域持续突破:1) 3 月底,搭载全栈自研NAD 智能驾驶平台的ET7 车型交付,原有停车及高速场景辅助驾驶功能(NOP)体验感大幅提升;2) 公司将于Q3 OTA NOP+,进一步完善智驾体验,并有望探索更高阶的智能驾驶功能。 3)基于上述功能,公司有望于年底开通订阅制收费,探索智能驾驶变现新模式。公司坚持在智能驾驶领域深度自研,我们预计,公司将加大研发投入力度,在智驾领域加速探索。 预计Q2 毛利率仍承压, Q3 有望触底改善。公司2022Q1 毛利率为14.6%,环比下降2.6pct,其中车辆销售毛利率环比下降2.7pct 至18.1%,主要由于原材料价格上涨。Q2 电池及大宗商品原材料价格仍维持高位,公司电池成本与原材料价格联动,因此毛利率压力仍大。但我们预计Q3毛利率有望改善,主要由于:1)公司5 月调价后订单预计将于Q3/Q4 交付;2)Q3 开始,基于更高毛利率新平台车型ET7/ES7 /ET5 销量占比将提升。长期,公司将加大电池自研项目投入,以保障供应及提升毛利率。 投资建议: 我们预计公司2022-2025 年销量约16/32/41/50 万辆,总收入达646/1230/1579/1836 亿元, non-GAAP 净利润率约-10%/-1%/2%/3%。基于公司2022 年新车型一键三连、高阶智能驾驶落地,我们给予其目标市值约402 亿美元(3231 亿港元),对应约4 X 2022e P/S,约合港股(9866.HK)201 港元、美股(NIO.N)25 美元目标价,维持“买入”评级。 风险提示:车型研发及销售不及预期风险、新品牌推进不及预期风险、上游零部件供应波动风险、负面舆情风险。

NIO Inc. 2022Q1 performance is in line with expectations, June delivery is expected to accelerate the recovery. The company delivered 26000 2022Q1 vehicles a year, with a revenue of 9.91 billion yuan, an increase of 24% compared with the same period last year. The net loss of non-GAAP belonging to ordinary shareholders was 1.29 billion yuan, which was 430 million yuan lower than that of 2021Q4, which was in line with expectations. The company's 2022Q2 guidelines are for sales of 2.3-25000 units, with revenue of 93.4-10.09 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6%-19.4% over the same period last year. According to the company's Q2 sales guidelines and weekly delivery recovery, we expect the company to deliver 1.1-13000 units in June, which is expected to accelerate the recovery in May. A new model, ES7, will be released in June, with production capacity ensuring rapid sales growth in the second half of the year. On the model side, the company is expected to release a new model ES7 on June 15, positioned as a medium-to-large five-seat SUV, built on the NT2.0 platform, with a price band expected to be between ES6/ES8, and delivery will begin in late August. We expect that with the acceleration of work resumption and subsidy policies, the delivery of the three existing models will continue to recover; in the second half of the year, the company will usher in the completion of ET7 climbing production and the start of ES7/ET5 delivery, and the overall Q3/Q4 delivery volume is expected to grow rapidly. On the production side, ES7/ET7 will be produced in Jianghuai plant and ET5 will be taken off the line at the new plant in Hefei. At present, the capacity of the Jianghuai plant has basically recovered and is expected to expand to 20,000 units per month in the second half of the year; the new plant is expected to start delivery in Q3, and the production capacity is expected to climb to 10,000 units per month by the end of the year, which will strongly guarantee delivery growth. The sales service side, the company will continue to encrypt the sales and recharge the electricity network, tamping the advantage of convenient replenishment. As of Q1, the company has 381 NIO Inc. centers and NIO Inc. spaces, 247 service centers and delivery centers, and has built more than 960 exchange stations, 829 overcharging stations and 4140 destination charging piles. NOP+ function is expected to land Q3, increase investment in research and development to adhere to in-depth self-research. The company continues to make breakthroughs in the field of intelligent driving: 1) at the end of March, with the delivery of ET7 models equipped with full-stack self-developed NAD intelligent driving platform, the original parking and high-speed scene assisted driving function (NOP) experience has been greatly improved; 2) the company will further improve the intelligent driving experience in Q3 OTA NOP+, and is expected to explore higher-level intelligent driving functions. 3) based on the above functions, the company is expected to open subscription fees by the end of the year to explore a new model for the realization of intelligent driving. The company insists on in-depth self-research in the field of smart driving, and we expect that the company will increase investment in research and development and accelerate exploration in the field of smart driving. Q2 gross profit margin is expected to remain under pressure, Q3 is expected to hit bottom to improve. The company's 2022Q1 gross profit margin was 14.6%, down 2.6pct from the previous month, of which the gross profit margin on vehicle sales fell 2.7pct to 18.1% from the previous month, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials. The prices of Q2 batteries and commodity raw materials remain high, and the company's battery costs are linked to raw material prices, so gross margin pressure remains high. However, we expect Q3 gross margin to improve, mainly due to: 1) the company's order is expected to be delivered to Q3/Q4 after the price adjustment in May; 2) starting with Q3, the share of sales of the new platform model ET7/ES7 / ET5 based on higher gross margin will increase. In the long run, the company will increase investment in battery self-research projects to ensure supply and increase gross profit margin. Investment advice: we estimate that the company will sell about half a million 16x32 pictups in 2022-2025, with a total revenue of RMB 646 and 1230, and a net profit margin of about-10%, 1%, 2% and 3% for non-GAAP. Based on the arrival of the company's new 2022 model with one button and three series of high-end intelligent drivers, we give it a target market capitalization of about US $40.2 billion (HK $323.1 billion), corresponding to about 4 X 2022e Pmax S, which is about HK $201,201 for Hong Kong stocks (9866.HK) and US $25 for US stocks (NIO.N). Maintain a "buy" rating. Risk tips: car research and development and sales are not as expected, new brand promotion is not as expected, upstream parts supply fluctuation risk, negative public opinion risk.

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