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蔚来-SW(09866.HK)港股公司信息更新报告:Q2供给侧恢复超预期 下半年毛利率有望改善
NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) Hong Kong stock company information update report: Q2 supply-side recovery exceeds expectations gross profit margin is expected to improve in the second half of the year

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成本上升导致毛利承压,着重下半年产能恢复,规模效应提升助力盈利改善基于上半年疫情影响导致产能及交付受限,预计下半年产能将逐步改善,分别将2022-2024 年营收预测由569/800/993 亿元上调至601/848/1,010 亿元,同比增速66%/41%/19%。考虑到电池成本上涨,公司毛利承压,分别将2022-2024 年净利润预测从-75/-41/3.6 亿元下调至-77/-42/3.1 亿元,对应EPS 为-4.9/-2.6/0.2 元;剔除股权激励影响后,预计2022-2024 年Non-GAAP 净利润分别为-58/-20/27 亿元,对应调整后EPS 为-3.6/-1.3/1.7 元。当前股价154.7 港币分别对应2022-2024 年3.5/2.5/2.1 倍PS、2024 年80.2 倍调整后PE。伴随下半年产能逐步恢复、第二工厂投产,规模效应及单车收入提升,公司盈利能力有望改善,维持“增持”评级。 2022Q1 Non-GAAP 净亏损额环比下降,源自2021Q4 蔚来日营销费用减少2022Q1 公司营收99 亿元,同比增长24%,基于交付量增长所致。毛利率方面,2022Q1 整体毛利率14.6%,其中车辆毛利率从2021Q4 的20.9%下滑至18.1%,主要由于电池成本上涨,其他服务毛利率从2021Q4 的-32.7% 下滑至-34.4%,主要源于折旧及换电站费用增加。2022Q1 营业费用36 亿元,同比增长96%,主要由于研发人员增加及销售网络扩大。2022Q1 Non-GAAP 净亏损额从2021Q4 的17 亿元降低至13 亿元,主要源自2021Q4 举办蔚来日所产生的营销费用减少。 2022Q2 盈利预计将持续承压,下半年供给侧回暖有望驱动盈利改善2022Q2 需求端基于ET5 车型发布,公司持续增加在手订单,866 车型订单保持稳定;供给侧因疫情影响导致供应链不足,于4 月停产5 天,公司已于6 月恢复至疫情前产能水平,预计Q2 将实现2.3-2.5 万台交付,对应我们预计6 月交付量有望恢复至1.2 万左右;预计2022Q2 毛利率将持续下滑,主要由于Q2 仍以未涨价订单为主、4 月电池涨价至高点。预计下半年产能逐步恢复、整体交付量上升带来规模效应提升、第二代平台产品有望增加部分毛利,驱动下半年盈利能力改善。展望2023 年,公司预计将866 车型切换至NT2.0 平台,推出换代车型。 大众品牌方面,公司已与合肥市签署战略合作协议,开始新品牌产能规划,预计2024H2 交付,价格定位在20 万-30 万,产品价格下沉有望驱动销量快速增长,规模效应放大有望驱动其Non-GAAP 净利润于2024 年扭亏为盈。 风险提示:软件及产品推出不如预期、产能及供应链风险、疫情影响

Rising costs lead to pressure on gross profits, focusing on capacity recovery in the second half of the year, and scale effects improve profitability. due to the limited production capacity and delivery caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year, production capacity is expected to improve gradually in the second half of the year. The revenue forecast for 2022-2024 is raised from 569 to 2024 from RMB 569 to RMB 848, an increase of 66%, 41% and 19% over the same period last year. Taking into account the rising battery costs, the company's gross profit is under pressure, respectively, the net profit forecast for 2022-2024 will be reduced from-75Uniqure 41m to-77Universe 42G, corresponding to EPS of-4.9Compact 2.60.2; excluding the impact of equity incentives, it is estimated that the net profit of Non-GAAP in 2022-2024 will be-58pm, respectively, and the adjusted EPS will be-3.6max, 1.31.7. The current share price of HK $154.7 corresponds to 3.5-2.5 PS in 2022-2024 and 80.2-fold adjusted PE in 2024. With the gradual recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, the commissioning of the second plant, economies of scale and increased bicycle revenue, the company's profitability is expected to improve and maintain the "overweight" rating. The decrease in 2022Q1 Non-GAAP net loss compared with the previous month is due to the reduction of 2021Q4 NIO Inc. 's daily marketing expenses by 9.9 billion yuan in 2022Q1's revenue, an increase of 24% over the same period last year, based on the increase in delivery volume. In terms of gross profit margin, 2022Q1's overall gross profit margin fell from 20.9% of 2021Q4 to 18.1%, mainly due to the increase in battery costs, and other services fell from-32.7% to-34.4%, mainly due to the increase in depreciation and power station costs. The operating expenses of 2022Q1 were 3.6 billion yuan, an increase of 96% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in R & D personnel and the expansion of the sales network. The net loss of 2022Q1 Non-GAAP decreased from 1.7 billion yuan of 2021Q4 to 1.3 billion yuan, mainly due to the reduction of marketing expenses incurred by 2021Q4 holding NIO Inc. Day. 2022Q2 profit is expected to continue to be under pressure, supply-side warming in the second half of the year is expected to drive profitability improvement 2022Q2 demand end based on the release of ET5 models, the company continues to increase in-hand orders, 866 model orders remain stable The supply side supply chain is insufficient due to the impact of the epidemic. Production was suspended for five days in April, and the company returned to its pre-epidemic capacity in June. Q2 is expected to achieve delivery of 2.3-25000 units, and we expect delivery volume to return to about 12000 in June. 2022Q2 gross profit margin is expected to continue to decline, mainly because Q2 is still dominated by unraised orders, and battery prices rose to a high in April. It is expected that production capacity will gradually recover in the second half of the year, the overall delivery volume will increase, and the second generation platform products are expected to increase some gross margins, driving the improvement of profitability in the second half of the year. Looking forward to 2023, the company expects to switch the 866 model to the NT2.0 platform and launch a replacement model. In terms of Volkswagen brand, the company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hefei to start new brand capacity planning, which is expected to deliver 2024H2 with a price positioning of 200000-300000. The sinking product price is expected to drive rapid sales growth, and scale effect amplification is expected to drive its Non-GAAP net profit to turn into profit in 2024. Risk tips: software and product launch is not as expected, capacity and supply chain risk, epidemic impact

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