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蔚来-SW(09866.HK):2022一季报点评:Q1营收同比正增长 产品周期强势
NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK): comments on the first quarterly report of 2022: Q1 revenue is growing year on year and the product cycle is strong

东吴证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  投资要点   公告要点:2022Q1 蔚来汽车实现营业总收入99.11 亿元,同环比分别+24.2%/+0.1% ; 其中汽车销售收入为92.44 亿元, 同环比分别+24.8%/+0.3%。Q1 蔚来整体毛利率为14.6%,同环比分别-4.87pct/-2.57pct;汽车销售毛利率为18.1%,同环比分别-3.06pct/-2.80pct。最终蔚来Q1 净亏损为 17.83 亿元,2021Q4 为21.43 亿元。   Q1 营收同环比正增长,产品结构变化&原材料成本上升拉低毛利率。   1)Q1 蔚来交付量环比增长带动整体营收及车辆销售收入环比分别+0.1%/+0.3%。Q1 蔚来汽车交付25768 辆,同环比分别+28.45%/+2.93%新车型方面,ET5 将于2022 年9 月开始交付,ES7 预计于8 月下旬开始交付。受疫情影响公司预计2022Q2 车辆交付量将在23,000 至25,000辆之间,环比为-10.7%~-3.0%。2)产品结构变化&原材料成本上升拉低毛利率。毛利率同比下滑主要原因为产品销售结构变化,定价稍低的ES6 销量占比由2021Q1 的40.32%增长至2022Q1 的52.86%,2022Q1单车收入为35.87 万元/辆,同环比分别-2.83%/-2.55%。毛利率环比下降主要由于电池等原材料成本增加。3)营销活动减少SG&A 费用率环比下滑,研发费用率基本保持稳定。2022Q1 季度研发费用率为17.78%,同环比分别+9.17pct/-0.69pct,环比基本保持稳定;SG&A 费用率为20.33%,同环比分别+5.33pct/-3.49pct,SG&A 费用率环比下滑主要原因为营销和促销活动减少,例如2021Q4 SG&A 费用包含2021 年12 月举办蔚来汽车日所产生的营销和促销费用。4)单车亏损环比收窄。Q1 单车亏损为6.92 万元(2021Q1 为2.25 万元,2021Q4 为8.56 万元),单车亏损环比收窄。5)资本运作方面,2022 年5 月20 日蔚来在新加坡交易所主板上市,蔚来成为全球首个三地上市的车企,同时也是首个同时在美国纽约、中国香港、新加坡上市的中国企业,进一步完善全球资本市场布局。同时蔚来还将与新加坡本地科研机构展开深度合作,在新加坡建立人工智能与自动驾驶研发中心,进一步完善蔚来的全球研发与业务布局。   盈利预测与投资评级:我们维持2022-2024 年业绩预测,营收分别为572.55/896.39/1442.08 亿元,同比增速58.44%/56.56%/60.88%,归属于普通股股东净利润为-73.39/-53.14/-24.18 亿元。对应2022~2024 年PS估值分别为4/3/2 倍。鉴于蔚来在工业品维度核心技术全面布局,硬件搭载行业领先。在消费品维度利用圈层营销构筑壁垒,换电提高补能体验。我们预计将迎来进一步销量放量,维持“买入”评级。   风险提示:芯片/电池等供应链不稳定;软件OTA 升级政策加严等。

Main points of investment Main points of the announcement: 2022Q1 NIO Inc. achieved a total operating income of 9.911 billion yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 24.2% and 0.1% respectively, of which car sales revenue was 9.244 billion yuan and + 24.8% and 0.3% respectively. Q1 NIO Inc. 's overall gross profit margin is 14.6%, respectively-4.87pct / month-on-month ratio-2.57pct; car sales gross profit margin is 18.1%-3.06pct/-2.80pct respectively. In the end, NIO Inc. 's net loss on Q1 was 1.783 billion yuan and 2021Q4 was 2.143 billion yuan. Q1 revenue is growing positively compared with the previous month, and the change in product structure & the rising cost of raw materials drives down the gross profit margin. 1) Q1 the month-on-month growth of NIO Inc. delivery volume drives the overall revenue and vehicle sales revenue to + 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. Q1 NIO Inc. delivered 25768 vehicles, compared with the same month-on-month, + 28.45% and 2.93% of the new models respectively. ET5 will start delivery in September 2022, and ES7 is expected to start delivery in late August. Companies affected by the epidemic expect 2022Q2 vehicle deliveries to be between 23000 and 25000 vehicles, a month-on-month ratio of-10.7% to 3.0%. 2) the change of product structure & the rising cost of raw materials drives down the gross profit margin. The year-on-year decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to changes in the sales structure of products. The proportion of ES6 sales with lower pricing increased from 40.32% of 2021Q1 to 52.86% of 2022Q1. The revenue of 2022Q1 was 3587,000 yuan per car, compared with-2.83% and 2.55% respectively. The month-on-month decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase in the cost of raw materials such as batteries. 3) the rate of reducing SG&An expenditure in marketing activities decreased month-on-month, and the rate of R & D expenditure remained basically stable. The quarterly R & D expense rate of 2022Q1 is 17.78%, which is basically stable compared with the same month and 9.17pct/-0.69pct, and the SG&An expense rate is 20.33%. Compared with the same month, the decline of the SG&An expense rate is mainly due to the decrease in marketing and promotional activities. For example, the 2021Q4 SG&An expense includes the marketing and promotion expenses incurred by holding NIO Inc. Automobile Day in December 2021. 4) the loss of bicycles is narrowed compared with the previous month. The loss of Q1 bike is 69200 yuan (22500 yuan for 2021Q1 and 85600 yuan for 2021Q4), and the loss of bicycle is narrowed compared with the previous month. 5) in terms of capital operation, NIO Inc. was listed on the main board of the Singapore Stock Exchange on May 20, 2022. NIO Inc. became the first car company in the world to be listed in three places, and it was also the first Chinese company to be listed in New York, Hong Kong and Singapore at the same time. We will further improve the layout of the global capital market. At the same time, NIO Inc. will also carry out in-depth cooperation with local scientific research institutions in Singapore to establish an artificial intelligence and self-driving research and development center in Singapore to further improve NIO Inc. 's global R & D and business layout. Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the performance forecast for 2022-2024, with revenue of 572.55, 89639, and 144.20 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58.44%, 56.56% and 60.88%. The net profit belonging to common shareholders is-73.39, 53.14, and 2.418 billion yuan. Corresponding to the valuation of PS in 2022-2024, it is 4-3-2 times. In view of the overall layout of NIO Inc. 's core technology in the industrial dimension, hardware is ahead of the industry. In the dimension of consumer goods, the use of circle marketing to build barriers, power exchange to improve the experience of replenishment. We expect to see further sales volume and maintain a "buy" rating. Risk tips: chip / battery and other supply chain instability; software OTA upgrade policy stricter and so on.

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