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蔚来NIO INC.(9866.HK)一季报点评:一季度毛利承压 预计6月产能基本恢复
NIO Inc. NIO INC. (9866.HK) Quarterly report comments: in the first quarter, gross profit is under pressure and production capacity is expected to basically recover in June.

海通国际 ·  {{timeTz}}

  蔚来发布一季报。公司1Q22 实现营业收入99.1 亿元,+24.2% YoY& +0.1% QoQ;毛利14.5 亿元,-6.9% YoY & -14.9% QoQ,毛利率环下降2.6pct 至14.6%;净亏损(包含少数股东损益)17.8 亿元,环比收窄16.8% 。预计2Q22 交付2.3-2.5 万辆,营收93.4-100.9 亿人民币,受原材料价格上涨毛利率继续承压。   高毛利车型销量下滑叠加成本上涨致车辆销售业务承压。公司1Q22 交付量达25768 辆,+28.5% YoY & +2.9% QoQ,车辆销售业务收入环比基本持平。分车型看,ES8、ES6、EC6 和ET7 占比分别为17%、53%、30%和1%,其中低价车型ES6 和EC6 占比上升,整体单车ASP 环比降低2.6%至35.9 万元。产品结构变化叠加成本端以电池为主的原材料价格上涨,一季度汽车销售毛利率环比下滑2.7pct 至18.1%。   5 月新增订单创新高,6 月产能基本恢复。订单量方面得益于线上销售体系和ET7 新品上线,订单整体情况良好,5 月创新增订单历史新高。三月份以来的供应链短缺逐步恢复,6 月江淮蔚来F1 工厂已恢复至疫情前水平,NeoPark 的F2 工厂将于Q3 开始正式投产,加速满足下半年交付需求。目前基础芯片短缺仍是制约整车生产的主要因素,公司正积极为下半年产能爬坡保供备货,全年缺芯风险整体可控。根据公司指引,预计2Q22 交付2.3-2.5 万辆,营收93.4-100.9 亿人民币,6 月交付有望创历史新高。   电池成本缓降叠加涨价订单交付,Q3 毛利有望改善。经过与电池供应商CATL 协商,4 月开始蔚来电池价格将与电池材料价格联动,考虑到4-5 月电池价格仍在高位,预计Q2 毛利率继续承压。   5 月10 日起,蔚来866 车型提价1 万元以应对原材料成本上涨,加价订单预计三季度开启交付,考虑到目前锂电价格开始小幅下行,叠加ET7 上量,我们认为三季度汽车销售毛利有望改善。   年内3 款基于NT 2.0 平台新车型上市交付,新品节奏加速。今年3月,基于NT 2.0 平台打造的首款轿车产品ET7 正式开启交付。4 月29 日ET5 首批全工艺生产线试制车已于合肥新桥第二工厂下线,计划9 月开启交付。第三款新平台车型ES7 将于6 月上市发布,定位中大型5 座豪华SUV,计划8 月下旬开启交付。   盈利预测与投资评级。考虑到2Q22 疫情导致整车生产受限,我们下调公司全年交付量预测1 万辆至15 万辆,预测公司2022-2024年营收总额分别为608.7/1019.6/1305.8 亿元,EPS 分别为-4.69/-2.70/0.63 元。参考国内外领先造车新势力估值水平,给予2022 年3.5 倍EV/Sales,对应目标价172.69 港元(对应2022 年PS 为4.1倍,处于合理水平;HK$1 = Rmb0.8507;前目标价204.57 港元,对应2022 年3.7 倍EV/Sales)。维持“优于大市”评级。   风险提示。原材料价格大幅上涨;供应链短缺无法缓解;在建工程不及预期导致产能爬坡低于预期等。

NIO Inc. released a quarterly report. The company's 1Q22 realized operating income of 9.91 billion yuan, + 24.2% YoY& + 0.1% QoQ; gross profit of 1.45 billion yuan,-6.9 YoY&-14.9% QoQ, gross profit ring decreased 2.6pct to 14.6%; net loss (including minority shareholders' profit and loss) 1.78 billion yuan, 16.8% narrowed month-on-month. 2Q22 is expected to deliver 2.3-25000 vehicles with revenue of 93.4-10.09 billion yuan, which will continue to be under pressure from rising gross profit margins of raw materials. The decline in sales of high-margin models and rising costs put pressure on the vehicle sales business. The company's 1Q22 delivery volume reached 25768, + 28.5% YoY & + 2.9% QoQ, vehicle sales revenue is basically flat. In terms of vehicle models, ES8, ES6, EC6 and ET7 accounted for 17%, 53%, 30% and 1% respectively, of which the proportion of low-cost models ES6 and EC6 increased, and the overall bicycle ASP decreased by 2.6% to 359000 yuan. Changes in product structure superimposed by the rise in the price of raw materials dominated by batteries at the cost end, with the gross margin of car sales falling 2.7pct to 18.1% month-on-month in the first quarter. New orders reached a record high in May, and production capacity basically recovered in June. In terms of order volume, thanks to the online sales system and the launch of ET7 new products, the overall order situation is good, hitting a new record high in May. The supply chain shortage has gradually recovered since March, and the Jianghuai NIO Inc. F1 plant has returned to the pre-epidemic level in June. NeoPark's F2 plant will be officially put into production in Q3 to speed up delivery demand in the second half of the year. At present, the shortage of basic chips is still the main factor restricting vehicle production, and the company is actively preparing goods for capacity climbing in the second half of the year, and the risk of core shortage throughout the year can be controlled as a whole. According to the company's guidelines, 2Q22 is expected to deliver 2.3-25000 vehicles, with revenue of 93.4-10.09 billion yuan, and June delivery is expected to reach an all-time high. Battery cost slow drop superimposed price increase order delivery, Q3 gross margin is expected to improve. After negotiation with battery supplier CATL, NIO Inc. battery prices will be linked with battery material prices from April. Considering that battery prices are still high in April-May, Q2 gross profit margin is expected to continue to bear pressure. Since May 10, NIO Inc. has raised the price of its 866 model by 10,000 yuan to cope with the rise in raw material costs, and the price increase order is expected to start delivery in the third quarter. Considering that the price of lithium battery is beginning to decline slightly, superimposed by ET7, we believe that the gross margin of car sales in the third quarter is expected to improve. During the year, 3 new models based on NT 2.0 platform were launched and delivered, and the pace of new products accelerated. In March this year, ET7, the first sedan product based on NT 2.0 platform, officially began delivery. On April 29, the trial production of the first batch of ET5 full-process production line was launched in the second plant of Xinqiao, Hefei, and delivery is scheduled to start in September. The third new platform model, the ES7, will be launched in June and will be located in a medium-and large-sized five-seat luxury SUV, with delivery scheduled for late August. Profit forecast and investment rating. Taking into account the restriction of vehicle production caused by the 2Q22 epidemic, we downgrade the company's annual delivery forecast of 10,000 to 150000 vehicles. The total revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 101.96 billion yuan, and the EPS is-4.69 million and 2.70 billion yuan, respectively. With reference to the valuation level of the leading new power of car building at home and abroad, 3.5x EV/Sales in 2022 is given, corresponding to a target price of HK $172.69 (corresponding to 4.1x PS in 2022, which is a reasonable level; HK$1 = Rmb0.8507; previous target price of HK $204.57, corresponding to HK $3.7x EV/Sales in 2022). Maintain the "better than the market" rating. Risk hint. The price of raw materials has risen sharply, the shortage of the supply chain cannot be alleviated, and the lower-than-expected production capacity is caused by the lower-than-expected production capacity under construction.

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