Download
Download by
Scanning QR Code
  • Download app

    Download app

  • Online Inquiry

    Log in to access Online Inquiry
+
Congratulations
You've successfully got advanced quotes worth 5000 HKD
Download APP >>

蔚来(09866.HK):1Q22业绩符合预期 F-1扩产助力供需共振
NIO Inc. (09866.HK): 1Q22 performance is in line with expectations. Fmuri 1 Resonance of supply and demand by expanding production and supporting Power

中金公司 ·  {{timeTz}}

1Q22 业绩符合我们预期 公司公布1Q22 业绩:实现营业收入99.1 亿元,同比+24.2%,环比+0.1%;Non-GAAP 归母净利润为-12.9 亿元,4Q21 为-17.2 亿元。 发展趋势 费用控制趋势向好,2Q 毛利率略有压力。1Q 公司实现营业收入99.1 亿元,同比+24.2%,环比+0.1%;对应单车收入为38.5 万元,环比-2.8%,主因ES8 销售占比环比-6ppt 至17%;1Q 汽车销售毛利率为18.1%,环比-2.7ppt。综合来看,受产品结构及电池成本影响,公司1Q 毛利率略低于我们预期。1Q 公司费用率及单车费用角度均体现向好态势,主要得益于市场及推广费用减少等因素,研发/销管费用率分别为17.8%/20.3%,环比分别-0.7/-3.5ppt。Non-GAAP 归母净利润为-12.9 亿元,4Q21 为-17.2 亿元。往前看,公司2Q 与电池供应商采用联动机制,且考虑到提价订单开启交付的时间为3Q,我们预计公司2Q 的毛利率环比或存一定的压力。 5 月订单创下新高,强产品周期拉开序幕,F1/2 助力供需共振。公司指引2季度交付量为2.3-2.5 万辆,对应6 月交付1.1-1.3 万辆,为月度新高。供给端来看,目前F-1 工厂生产已恢复至4 月上海疫情前水平,此前的产能扩建成果有望自6 月起逐步体现;而F-2 工厂进展顺利,ET5 试制车已于4月末下线,我们预计年末两个工厂有望合计带动月产能达2-3 万辆水平。需求端来看,公司5 月新增订单创历史新高,其中866 车型表现稳健,ET7市场接受度也持续提升;ET7 交付第3 月即实现1,707 的月交付水平,在50 万级别的高端纯电轿车市场表现亮眼,我们预计后续有望稳态月销破5,000 辆。ES7/ET5 规划于3 季度开始交付,强产品周期有望拉开序幕。 深度自研布局电池,3Q 推出NOP Plus。公司在电池领域坚持自制+外采的战略,近来大力投入核心技术的研发,包括电芯材料和BMS 等领域,目前已搭建完成近400 人的团队。自研电池规划2H24 首发量产于新推出的大众品牌,可支持换电及高压架构。智驾方面,公司规划3Q 量产NOP plus增强版领航辅助,基于强大的软硬件平台、全栈自研的算法、端到端的数据闭环和运营能力,我们预计有望为NT2.0 平台后续开通覆盖更多场景的NAD 服务,打下坚实基础。往前看,公司长期发展规划的思路清晰,我们预计深度自研的电池及智驾技术均有望成为公司决战智能电动化的胜负手。 盈利预测与估值 当前公司美股股价对应2022 年3.4x EV/Revenue,维持公司跑赢行业评级不变,维持美股目标价23 美元不变,对应2022 年4.2x EV/Revenue,较当前股价存在22%的上行空间。 风险 芯片短缺影响公司产销,新车推出晚于预期。

1Q22 performance is in line with our expectations The company announced 1Q22 results: operating income of 9.91 billion yuan, year-on-year + 24.2%, month-on-month + 0.1% Nonmuri GAAP homing net profit of-1.29 billion yuan, 4Q21 of-1.72 billion yuan. Trend of development The trend of cost control is improving, and 2Q gross profit margin is slightly under pressure. 1Q company realized operating income of 9.91 billion yuan, year-on-year + 24.2%, month-on-month ratio + 0.1%; corresponding bicycle income was 385000 yuan, month-on-month ratio-2.8%, mainly because ES8 sales accounted for a proportion of month-on-month-6ppt to 17%; gross profit margin of 1Q car sales was 18.1%, month-on-month-2.7ppt. Generally speaking, due to the influence of product structure and battery cost, the company's 1Q gross profit margin is slightly lower than we expected. 1Q company expense rate and bicycle fee point of view show a good trend, mainly due to the reduction of market and promotion costs and other factors, R & D / sales management expense rate is 17.8% 20.3%, month-on-month respectively-0.7/-3.5ppt. The net profit of Non-GAAP and 4Q21 is-1.29 billion yuan and-1.72 billion yuan respectively. Looking forward, company 2Q adopts a linkage mechanism with battery suppliers, and considering that the delivery time of the price increase order is 3Q, we expect the gross profit margin of company 2Q to be under some pressure. Orders hit a new high in May, a strong product cycle kicked off, and F1ax 2 helped resonate supply and demand. The company directed delivery of 2.3-25000 vehicles in the second quarter, corresponding to the delivery of 1.1-13000 vehicles in June, a monthly high. From the supply side, the production of the Fmuri 1 plant has returned to the pre-epidemic level in Shanghai in April, and the previous results of capacity expansion are expected to be reflected gradually from June; while the Fmuri 2 plant is progressing smoothly, the trial production of ET5 has been put off the line at the end of April, and we expect that by the end of the year, the two plants are expected to bring the monthly production capacity to 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles. On the demand side, the company's new orders reached an all-time high in May, in which 866 models performed steadily, and ET7 market acceptance continued to improve; ET7 delivery reached a monthly delivery level of 1707 in the third month, which is eye-catching in the 500000-class high-end pure electric sedan market, and we expect steady monthly sales of more than 5000 vehicles. ES7/ET5 is scheduled to start delivery in the third quarter, and a strong product cycle is expected to kick off. Deep self-research layout battery, 3Q launched NOP Plus. The company adheres to the strategy of self-made and external acquisition in the field of batteries, and has recently invested heavily in the research and development of core technologies, including cell materials and BMS. Self-developed battery planning 2H24 launch volume is produced in the newly launched Volkswagen brand, which can support power exchange and high voltage architecture. In terms of intelligent driving, the company plans 3Q mass production NOP plus enhanced navigation assistance. Based on the strong software and hardware platform, full stack self-developed algorithms, end-to-end data closed loop and operational capabilities, we expect to lay a solid foundation for the subsequent launch of NAD services covering more scenarios on the NT2.0 platform. Looking forward, the company's long-term development plan is clear, and we expect that deep self-developed batteries and smart driving technology are expected to become the winners and losers of the company's decisive battle with intelligent electrification. Profit forecast and valuation The current US stock price corresponds to 3.4x EV/Revenue in 2022, maintaining the company's outperform industry rating unchanged, keeping the target price of US stock unchanged at $23, and corresponding to 4.2x EV/Revenue in 2022, which has 22% upward space compared to the current stock price. Risk The shortage of chips affected the company's production and marketing, and the launch of the new car was later than expected.

This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but do not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.

Risk disclosure: The above content only represents the opinion of the authors or guests, and does not represent any positions of Futu or constitute any investment advice on the part of Futu. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products based on their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers where necessary. Futu makes every effort to verify the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the above content, but does not make any guarantees or promises.

Back to the Top