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蔚来-SW(09866.HK)港股公司首次覆盖报告:品牌优势突出 新车型助力销量增长
NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) Hong Kong Stock Company covers report for the first time: brand advantages highlight new models to boost sales growth

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车型推出有助销量增长,期待866 车型后续改款,首次覆盖给予“增持”评级 蔚来定位高端豪车品牌,主要对标BBA 等传统豪车品牌,产品舒适性及动力性能较为突出,叠加优异的渠道运营及用户服务,公司于高端纯电SUV 市场中具有优势,根据弗若斯特沙利文报告,于2021 年前三季度,ES6 于高端纯电SUV领域的市场份额为29%,EC6 为22.5%,ES8 则为14.2%。考虑到新车型推出(ET7、ET5、ES7)及疫情导致的供应链影响,我们预计2022-2024 年营收分别为569/800/993 亿元,同比增速分别为57%/41%/24%;伴随规模效应显现,亏损逐步收窄,公司有望于2024 年扭亏为盈,预计2022-2024 年净利润分别为-75/-41/4亿元,对应EPS 为-4.7/-2.6/0.2 元;剔除股权激励费用影响后,预计2022-2024 年Non-GAAP 净利润分别为-58/-23/24 亿元人民币,对应调整后EPS 为-3.7/-1.4/1.5元。公司当前股价153.8 港币分别对应2022-2024 年3.6/2.6/2.1 倍PS。基于3 款新车型推出,有望持续带动销量增长,目前SUV 车型定位较为相似,期待后续866 改款车型推出,首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。 蔚来品牌力突出,保值率仅次特斯拉,后续硬件升级有望助力产品力提升 蔚来用户运营能力突出,于品牌方面具有优势,伴随产品价格下探,逐步实现三线城市门店布局,SUV 车型定位较为相似,后续改款升级有望提升产品力。 (1)品牌: 换电服务+用户社区运营+全流程配套服务,打造蔚来特有用户生态,品牌价值逐步建立,产品保值率仅次特斯拉,根据罗兰贝格数据,2021 年EC6、ES6 占据新能源汽车前十大保值车型中的第二及第三,仅次于特斯拉 Model Y。 (2)产品: 产品矩阵较为丰富,2022 年预计将新增3 款车型(ET7、ET5、ES7),高于小鹏汽车、理想汽车的1 款车型,866 车型皆已推出2 年以上,配置相对老旧,SUV 车型定位较为相似,静待2022 年硬件升级改款,有望驱动销量增长。 (3)渠道: 截至2021 年,蔚来门店规模为358 家,高于小鹏汽车311 家及理想汽车206 家。公司销售以一、二线城市为主,目前占比达96%,伴随价格下探,蔚来门店逐步下沉至三、四线城市,截至2022 年2 月,三四线门店占比为24%。 风险提示:产品推出不如预期、产能及供应链风险、疫情影响

The launch of the model will help the sales growth. We look forward to the follow-up modification of the 866 model, which will cover and give the "overweight" rating for the first time. NIO Inc. locates high-end luxury car brands, mainly targeting traditional luxury car brands such as standard BBA, with outstanding product comfort and power performance, superimposed excellent channel operation and user service, and the company has an advantage in the high-end pure electric SUV market. According to Frost Sullivan's report, in the first three quarters of 2021, ES6's market share in the field of high-end pure electric SUV is 29%, 22. 5%, 22. 5% and 14. 2%. Taking into account the supply chain impact caused by the launch of new models (ET7, ET5, ES7) and the epidemic, we estimate that revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 56980,000,000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57%, 41% and 24%, respectively. With the appearance of economies of scale and the gradual narrowing of losses, the company is expected to turn losses into profits in 2024. It is estimated that the net profit in 2022-2024 will be-75 Lexi 41 / 400 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the corresponding EPS of-4.7 Grammer 2.6 pound 0.2 yuan; excluding the impact of equity incentive fees, the net profit of Non-GAAP in 2022-2024 is expected to be-58 Universe 2.3 billion RMB respectively, and the corresponding adjusted EPS will be-3.7 pound 1.4 billion yuan. The company's current share price of HK $153.8 corresponds to 2.6 PS in 2022-2024. Based on the launch of three new models, it is expected to continue to drive sales growth, the current positioning of SUV models is relatively similar, look forward to the follow-up 866 model launch, for the first time to cover the "overweight" rating. NIO Inc. 's brand strength is outstanding, the preservation rate is only second to Tesla, Inc., and the follow-up hardware upgrade is expected to help improve the products. NIO Inc. user operation ability is outstanding, has the advantage in the brand aspect, along with the product price drop, gradually realizes the third-tier city store layout, the SUV model positioning is similar, the follow-up modification upgrade is expected to enhance the product strength. (1) Brand: power exchange service + user community operation + whole process supporting services, to create NIO Inc. unique user ecology, brand value is gradually established, product value preservation rate is only second to Tesla, Inc., according to Roland Berger data, in 2021, EC6 and ES6 occupy the second and third of the top ten value preservation models of new energy vehicles, second only to Tesla, Inc. Model Y. (2) products: the product matrix is relatively rich. Three new models (ET7, ET5, ES7) are expected to be added in 2022, which is higher than the one of XPeng Inc. and Li Auto Inc.. The 866 models have been launched for more than 2 years, and the configuration is relatively old. The positioning of SUV models is relatively similar. Waiting for hardware upgrades and changes in 2022, it is expected to drive sales growth. (3) channels: by 2021, the number of NIO Inc. stores was 358, which was higher than that of XPeng Inc. and Li Auto Inc.. The company's sales are mainly in first-and second-tier cities, which currently account for 96%. With the price decline, NIO Inc. stores gradually sank to third-and fourth-tier cities. As of February 2022, third-and fourth-tier stores accounted for 24%. Risk tips: product launch is not as expected, production capacity and supply chain risk, epidemic impact

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