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协鑫科技(03800.HK)跟踪报告:颗粒硅产能扩充 成本优势助力利润释放
Xiexin Technology (03800.HK) follow-up report: cost advantage of capacity expansion of granular silicon contributes to profit release

兴业证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  投资要点   我们的观点:协鑫科技是全球头部硅料及硅片生产企业,以颗粒硅差异化竞争,成本优势突出,2022 年产能大幅扩充。短期来看,预计2022 年硅料行业产能部分释放,但产量增额有限,今年硅料仍是光伏产业链中的产能及产量瓶颈,全年价格预计保持相对高位;叠加协鑫产量增长,预计2022年公司利润维持高增长态势。长期来看,光伏发电需求持续景气,协鑫科技有望凭借颗粒硅技术优势、成本优势持续分享行业红利。估值方面,截至2022 年5 月6 日收盘,公司PE TTM 仅10.2x,PE 2022E(Wind 一致预期)仅5.6x,建议投资者关注。   业绩提升:2021 年,公司营收同比+34.3%至197.0 亿元,毛利同比+95.8%至73.5 亿元,归母净利润扭亏为盈至50.8 亿元(前值为-56.7 亿元);2022Q1,公司营收、归母净利润各为69.9、30.3 亿元,保持高增长态势;业绩增长主要由光伏材料业务驱动。   聚焦硅料与硅片业务,受益于硅料价格上涨:   聚焦硅料与硅片业务:公司当前聚焦光伏材料业务(主要为硅料和硅片),并逐步剥离光伏电站业务。2021 年至今,光伏材料业务持续受益于下游光伏装机需求景气及硅料高价;其中,2021 年分部收入同比+80.5%至166.5 亿元,占比84.5%,毛利率同比+29.6pcts 至32.9%;2022Q1,分部收入66.8 亿元,占比95.6%,毛利率46.0%。1)硅料:   2021 年公司硅料产量同比+12.8%至4.76 万吨(其中18%为颗粒硅),销量同比+9.7%至4.03 万吨,其中棒状硅销售单价同比+142.7%至147.3 元/kg。2022Q1 公司硅料产量1.86 万吨。2)硅片:2021 年公司硅片产量(含代工)同比+21.2%至38.1GW,销量同比+17.3%至38.0GW,棒状多晶硅片销售单价同比+63.9%至0.60 元/W。2022Q1公司硅片产量11.6GW。   硅料价格维持高位:2021 年以来,国内及海外主要光伏需求国的新增装机量增加,需求持续走高;在光伏产业链中,硅料产能较低,且产能扩充速度较慢;供不应求局面抬高硅料价格。据PVinfolink,截至2022 年4 月27 日,国内多晶硅致密料均价249 元/kg,较2021 年初(80+元/kg)高出近200%。我们认为,硅料扩产的产能增量受到疫情影响而放缓,2022Q4 新增产能有限,供需持续紧平衡,预计2022年硅料均价高于2021 年。   颗粒硅产能扩充,成本优势显著,产品被客户认可,技术构筑壁垒:   颗粒硅产能扩充:截至2022Q1 末,公司在徐州有4.5 万吨棒状硅和3万吨颗粒硅产能,其中棒状硅产能拟于2022H2-2023H1 转化为颗粒硅。截至同期,公司在新疆有6 万吨棒状硅产能,收入不并表,利润按权益法入账。公司预计2022 年新增颗粒硅产能23 万吨,徐州、乐山、包头各为3 万、10 万、10 万吨。其中,徐州项目正进行前期调试、今年7 月投产、Q3 满产;乐山项目今年7 月开始投产、每月投产约2 万吨、年底全部投产;包头项目今年Q4 开始投产、明年全部投产。根据公司的产能规划及投产节奏,我们预计其2022 年颗粒硅产量超7 万吨,2023 年超30 万吨。   成本优势突出:1)颗粒硅降低能耗:2022Q1,公司徐州基地每公斤颗粒硅的综合电耗为14.8kWh(约为棒状硅的三分之一)、蒸汽消耗为15.3kg,低能耗优势体现为高毛利,期内公司颗粒硅毛利率比棒状硅高出15pcts;2)包头项目进一步降本:包头项目配套15 万吨工业硅粉产能,可部分稳定上游成本;且工业硅生产有蒸汽副产品,可用于硅料生产,进一步降本。   颗粒硅被客户认可:1)产品品质良好、有价格优势:公司颗粒硅金属及碳杂质含量达标,其中金属杂质含量达到棒状硅特级国标,早期氢跳问题得到解决。同时,由于生产成本较低,颗粒硅售价低于棒状硅。从实际使用情况来看,公司的颗粒硅品质达到下游企业用料标准,可作为主流单晶生产的主料,且N 型用料已通过小批量验证。2)与下游客户签长单:期限3 或5 年,定量不定价,月谈月结,有一定折扣优惠但力度不大。   技术构筑壁垒:2021 年全球硅料产量CR5 达到86.7%,除协鑫外的四家公司均主打改良西门子法及棒状硅,颗粒硅技术积累较少,协鑫科技先发优势突出;结合研发过程耗时情况、公司保密措施(法律手段、生产环节模块化、核心工程人员股权激励)、公司持续的研发投入及技术更新,预计公司颗粒硅技术壁垒短期内难以被打破。   风险提示:硅料价格波动,公司产能扩充不及预期,订单履约风险,技术替代或泄密风险。

Main points of investment Our point of view: Xiexin Technology is a global head silicon material and wafer manufacturer, competing with granular silicon differentiation and outstanding cost advantages, and its production capacity has been greatly expanded in 2022. In the short term, the capacity of the silicon industry is expected to be partially released in 2022, but the output increase is limited. This year, silicon is still the capacity and output bottleneck in the photovoltaic industry chain, and the price for the whole year is expected to remain relatively high; superimposed Xiexin production growth, the company's profits are expected to maintain a high growth trend in 2022. In the long run, the demand for photovoltaic power generation continues to be booming, and Xiexin Technology is expected to continue to share the industry dividend by virtue of the advantages of granular silicon technology and cost. In terms of valuation, as of May 6, 2022, the company's PE TTM is only 10.2x Wind PE 2022E (Wind consensus expectations) only 5.6x, it is recommended that investors pay attention. Performance improvement: in 2021, the company's revenue was + 34.3% to 19.7 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, gross profit was + 95.8% to 7.35 billion yuan, and the return net profit was turned to 5.08 billion yuan (the previous value was-5.67 billion yuan); 2022Q1, the company's revenue and return net profit were 69.9 yuan and 3.03 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a high growth trend; performance growth was mainly driven by photovoltaic materials business. Focus on silicon and wafer business, benefiting from rising silicon prices: Focus on silicon material and wafer business: the company is currently focusing on photovoltaic materials business (mainly silicon material and silicon wafer), and gradually divest the photovoltaic power station business. Since 2021, the photovoltaic materials business has continued to benefit from the boom in downstream photovoltaic installation demand and the high price of silicon materials. Among them, the revenue of the segment in 2021 was + 80.5% to 16.65 billion yuan, accounting for 84.5%, the gross profit margin was from + 29.6pcts to 32.9% to 32.9% to 2022Q1, the segment income was 6.68 billion yuan, accounting for 95.6%, and the gross profit margin was 46.0%. 1) Silicon material: In 2021, the company's silicon production was + 12.8% to 47600 tons (of which 18% was granular silicon), and the sales volume was + 9.7% to 40300 tons, of which the unit price of bar silicon was + 142.7% to 147.3 yuan / kg. 2022Q1 produces 18600 tons of silicon material. 2) Silicon wafers: in 2021, the company's wafer production (including OEM) was + 21.2% to 38.1GW, sales volume was + 17.3% to 38.0GW, and the unit price of rod-shaped polysilicon wafers was + 63.9% to 0.60 yuan / W. 2022Q1 silicon wafer production 11.6GW. The price of silicon remains high: since 2021, the newly installed capacity of major domestic and overseas photovoltaic demand countries has increased, and the demand has continued to rise; in the photovoltaic industry chain, the silicon production capacity is low, and the capacity expansion rate is slow; the situation that supply exceeds demand drives up the price of silicon. According to PVinfolink, as of April 27, 2022, the average price of polysilicon densifier in China is 249 yuan / kg, which is nearly 200% higher than that at the beginning of 2021 (80 + yuan / kg). We believe that the capacity increment of silicon material expansion has slowed down due to the impact of the epidemic, the new capacity of 2022Q4 is limited, supply and demand continue to be tightly balanced, and the average price of silicon material in 2022 is expected to be higher than that in 2021. Granular silicon production capacity expansion, significant cost advantages, products are recognized by customers, technical barriers: Granular silicon production capacity expansion: as of the end of 2022Q1, the company has 45000 tons of bar silicon and 30, 000 tons of granular silicon production capacity in Xuzhou, of which rod silicon production capacity is scheduled to be converted into granular silicon in 2022H2-2023H1. As of the same period, the company has 60,000 tons of bar silicon production capacity in Xinjiang, the income is not consolidated, and the profit is accounted for according to the equity method. The company expects to increase the production capacity of granular silicon by 230000 tons in 2022, compared with 30,000 tons in Xuzhou, 100000 tons in Leshan and 100000 tons in Baotou. Among them, the Xuzhou project is undergoing preliminary commissioning, putting into production in July this year, and full production of Q3; the Leshan project will be put into production in July this year, with a monthly production of about 20,000 tons, and all will be put into production at the end of the year; and the Baotou project Q4 will be put into production this year and next year. According to the company's capacity planning and production rhythm, we expect its granular silicon production to exceed 70,000 tons in 2022 and 300000 tons in 2023. Cost advantage is outstanding: 1) granular silicon reduces energy consumption: 2022Q1, the comprehensive power consumption per kilogram of granular silicon in Xuzhou is 14.8kWh (about 1/3 of bar silicon), steam consumption is 15.3kg, the advantage of low energy consumption is high gross profit, and the company's gross profit margin of granular silicon is 15pcts higher than that of bar silicon during the period) Baotou project further reduces cost: Baotou project is equipped with 150000 tons of industrial silicon powder production capacity, which can partially stabilize upstream cost. And industrial silicon production has steam by-products, which can be used in silicon production to further reduce cost. Granular silicon is recognized by customers: 1) good product quality and price advantage: the company's granular silicon metal and carbon impurity content is up to the standard, in which the metal impurity content reaches the special national standard of rod silicon, and the early hydrogen jump problem has been solved. At the same time, due to the low production cost, the price of granular silicon is lower than that of rod silicon. From the perspective of actual use, the quality of the company's granular silicon reaches the material standard of downstream enterprises and can be used as the main material for mainstream single crystal production, and the N-type material has been verified in small batches. 2) sign a long order with downstream customers: the term is 3 or 5 years, the quantity is not fixed, the monthly settlement is discussed, and there is a certain discount but not much strength. Technical construction barriers: in 2021, the global silicon output CR5 reached 86.7%. All four companies except Xiexin mainly focused on improved Siemens method and bar silicon. The accumulation of granular silicon technology is less, and Xiexin technology has outstanding first-mover advantages. Combined with the time-consuming situation of the R & D process, the company's secrecy measures (legal means, production modularization, equity incentives for core engineering personnel), the company's continuous R & D investment and technology renewal, it is expected that the company's granular silicon technical barriers will be difficult to break in the short term. Risk tips: Silicon prices fluctuate, the company's capacity expansion is not as expected, order performance risk, technology substitution or leakage risk.

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