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保利协鑫能源(3800.HK)2022年一季报业绩公告点评:硅料价格维持高位 一季度业绩超预期
Poly Xiexin Energy (3800.HK) Quarterly report 2022 performance announcement comments: Silicon prices remain high in the first quarter performance exceeded expectations

光大证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

事件:4 月20 日公司发布未经审核2022 年一季度业绩数据显示,公司2022 年一季度营业收入为约69.9 亿元,净利润为约30.0 亿元,其中光伏材料业务营收66.8 亿元,该业务综合毛利率为46.0%,颗粒硅产品毛利率高于棒状硅毛利率15 个百分点以上。 硅料价格受供需影响维持高位,公司硅料产能增长。我国2022 年新增光伏装机量持续增加,光伏需求稳定增长。硅料扩产的产能增量受到疫情影响放缓,行业内供不应求的局面暂未得到缓解,硅料价格仍处于高位。根据安泰科数据显示,2022 年4 月我国单晶复投料、致密料和菜花料均价分别为25.33、25.09 和24.81万元/吨。公司积极扩张颗粒硅产能,截至2022 年一季度末公司棒状硅年产能为4.5 万吨,颗粒硅年产能为3 万吨,其中一季度已经完成多晶硅产量1.86 万吨。随着销售价格提升和毛利率增长,公司有望在硅料方面实现营收净利润的进一步增加。 客户长单体现产品认可,签订合作协议加强硅料生产及下游应用研发:随着公司产品的降本优势逐渐凸显,公司产品得到下游客户的认可,产能长单达70 万吨。 公司于2022 年4 月19 日与TCL 科技及天津中环签订合作框架协议书,将于呼和浩特市设立合资公司,并实施总投资额为90 亿的项目用于10 万吨颗粒硅、硅基材料综合利用的生产及下游应用领域的投资研发,公司或其控股子公司将于合资公司中持股60%。此外公司还将设立另一合资公司实施总投资预计为30 亿元的项目用于1 万吨电机及多晶硅项目建设,公司关联方将持股合资公司60%。 颗粒硅降本低碳足迹优势凸显,低碳足迹助力能源结构低碳转型:公司颗粒硅产品具备成本和减排优势。降本方面,公司徐州颗粒硅产品目前综合电单耗已经稳定控制在14.8kWh/kg,综合蒸汽单耗为15.3kg/kg。低碳足迹方面,公司在2021年10 月获得的法国能源署颁发的碳足迹认证证书,公司颗粒硅功能单位的碳足迹数值仅为37 千克二氧化碳含量。保利协鑫的颗粒硅产品在降本和碳足迹上的优势将逐步辐射至下游硅片和组件端,积极助力全球能源结构向低碳转型。 盈利预测、估值与评级:硅料价格维持高位,公司硅料业务持续增长,整体净利润超预期增加。我们上调公司2022-2024 年净利润预测为90.73 亿元、95.31亿元、100.33 亿元(净利润较前次分别上调44.24%、35.67%、31.44%),对应2022-2024 年EPS 为0.33、0.35、0.37 元,维持“买入”评级。 风险提示:行业波动风险;订单履行风险;核心技术人员流失的风险;技术替代、募投项目达产不及预期等风险。

Event: on April 20, the company released unaudited first-quarter performance data for 2022, showing that the company's operating income in the first quarter of 2022 was about 6.99 billion yuan, and its net profit was about 3 billion yuan, of which the revenue of photovoltaic materials business was 6.68 billion yuan. the comprehensive gross profit margin of the business is 46.0%, and the gross profit margin of granular silicon products is more than 15% higher than that of bar silicon. Silicon prices remain high under the influence of supply and demand, and the company's silicon production capacity increases. In 2022, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic in China continues to increase, and the demand for photovoltaic increases steadily. The capacity increment of silicon material expansion has been slowed down by the epidemic, the situation that supply falls short of demand in the industry has not been alleviated, and the price of silicon material is still high. According to Antaike data, in April 2022, the average prices of single crystal re-feeding, densification and cauliflower in China were 25.33,25.09 and 248100 yuan / ton, respectively. The company is actively expanding its granular silicon production capacity. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company has an annual production capacity of 45000 tons of bar silicon and 30,000 tons of granular silicon, of which 18600 tons of polysilicon have been produced in the first quarter. With the increase in sales prices and gross profit margin, the company is expected to achieve a further increase in revenue and net profit in silicon. Customer long order reflects product recognition, signing a cooperation agreement to strengthen silicon production and downstream application research and development: with the advantages of cost reduction of the company's products gradually highlighted, the company's products have been recognized by downstream customers, with a single production capacity of 700000 tons. The company signed a cooperation framework agreement with TCL Technology and Tianjin Central on April 19, 2022 to set up a joint venture company in Hohhot and implement a project with a total investment of 9 billion for investment and R & D in the production and downstream applications of 100000 tons of granular silicon and silicon-based materials. the company or its holding subsidiary will hold 60% of the shares in the joint venture company. In addition, the company will also set up another joint venture company to implement a project with an estimated total investment of 3 billion yuan for the construction of 10,000 tons of motor and polysilicon projects, and the company's related parties will hold 60% of the joint venture company. The advantages of cost reduction and low carbon footprint of granular silicon are highlighted, and the low carbon footprint promotes the low-carbon transformation of energy structure: the company's granular silicon products have the advantages of cost and emission reduction. In terms of cost reduction, the company's Xuzhou granular silicon products currently have a stable control of comprehensive power consumption in 14.8kWh/kg and comprehensive steam consumption in 15.3kg/kg. In terms of low carbon footprint, the company obtained the carbon footprint certification issued by the French Energy Agency in October 2021, and the carbon footprint of the company's granular silicon functional unit is only 37 kg of carbon dioxide. The advantages of Poly Xiexin's granular silicon products in cost reduction and carbon footprint will gradually radiate to the downstream wafers and components, actively contributing to the transformation of the global energy structure to low carbon. Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: Silicon prices remain high, the company's silicon business continues to grow, and overall net profit exceeds expectations. We raised the company's net profit forecast for 2022-2024 to 9.073 billion yuan, 9.531 billion yuan and 10.033 billion yuan (the net profit increased by 44.24%, 35.67% and 31.44% respectively), corresponding to the EPS of 0.33,0.35,0.37 yuan in 2022-2024, maintaining the "buy" rating. Risk hints: industry fluctuation risk; order fulfillment risk; risk of loss of core technical personnel; risk of technology substitution, underproduction of fund-raising projects, etc.

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