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保利协鑫能源(03800.HK):正式回归港股通 硅料景气延续带来发展机遇
Poly Xiexin Energy (03800.HK): official return to Hong Kong Stock Exchange Silicon material boom continues to bring development opportunities

中金公司 ·  {{timeTz}}

  公司近况   根据中国投资信息有限公司3 月4 日通知1,公司股票调整入港股通,将于下一港股通交易日起生效(3 月7 日)。   评论   主营业务重新聚焦硅料,经营重新焕发生机。截至2021 年末,公司在运电站规模已由2020 年底的约5 吉瓦缩减至约1 吉瓦,经营向多晶硅主业聚焦。2 月21 日公司公告委任现任江苏中能董事长及总经理兰天石先生为公司执行董事及联系首席执行官。   颗粒硅产能建设如期推进。公司徐州2 万吨颗粒硅新产能模块自11 月首台流化床投产后,6 台流化床的投产沿用此前的盈喜公告指引实现完全达产,符合公2021 年盈喜公告给出的预期,后续将继续进行产能爬坡。我们预计公司2021/22/23 年底控股颗粒硅名义产能分别3 万吨(徐州)/22 万吨(徐州、包头各6 万吨,乐山10 万吨)/30 万吨(徐州、包头、乐山各10万吨),关注新产能爬坡情况及下游硅片厂验证进展。   国内外光伏政策面、基本面共振带动硅料景气延续,为公司创造发展机遇期。国内方面,我们看好2022 年基准情形光伏装机同增45%至80GW;近期能源局强调推动以沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区为重点的大型风电光伏基地建设,叠加分布式整县推进如火如荼,国内光伏需求储备充分。海外方面,我们看好2022 年基准情形光伏装机同增30%至140GW;俄乌冲突下海外传统能源供给波动加大,光伏新能源更经济、更安全属性进一步凸显,装机有望提速;如德国新规划目标到2030 年光伏装机量200GW,对应未来年均新增装机15GW以上,接近2021 年新增装机的3 倍。需求旺盛背景下,2022 年1 月以来硅料价格维持高位超市场预期,当前价格240+元/kg,我们预计2022 年硅料环节供需景气延续,全年均价或达180 元/kg以上,供给偏紧也有望为公司颗粒硅技术的规模化扩产、产品品质提升、以及下游验证导入提供发展机遇。   盈利预测与估值   维持2021、22、23 年盈利预测不变,维持跑赢行业评级和目标价3.7 港币,较当前股价有26%的上行空间,当前股价对应2022/2023 年9.8x/9.4x PE,目标价对应2022 年12.4x /11.94x PE。   风险   下游需求不及预期,扩产进度不及预期,安全生产风险。

The current situation of the company According to the March 4 notice of China Investment Information Co., Ltd., the adjustment of the company's shares to Hong Kong Stock Connect will take effect from the next trading day of Hong Kong Stock Connect (March 7). Comment The main business refocuses on silicon, and the operation is full of vitality. By the end of 2021, the scale of the company's transportation and power station has been reduced from about 5 gigawatts at the end of 2020 to about 1 gigawatts, focusing on the main business of polysilicon. On February 21, the company announced the appointment of Mr. Lan Tianshi, the current chairman and general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng, as the executive director and associate CEO of the company. The construction of granular silicon production capacity was carried out as scheduled. Since the first fluidized bed was put into production in November, 6 fluidized beds have been put into production using the previous Yingxi announcement guidelines to achieve full production, which is in line with the expectations given by the public Yingxi announcement in 2021. Capacity climbing will continue. We expect the company to hold 30,000 tons (Xuzhou) / 220000 tons (60,000 tons each of Xuzhou, Baotou and 100000 tons of Leshan) / 300000 tons (100000 tons of Xuzhou, Baotou and Leshan each) by the end of 2021-22-23. Pay attention to the climbing of new capacity and the progress of downstream wafer factory verification. Domestic and foreign photovoltaic policies and fundamental resonance drive the continuation of the silicon boom, creating development opportunities for the company. Domestically, we are optimistic that photovoltaic capacity will increase by 45% to 80GW in 2022. Recently, the Energy Bureau has stressed the promotion of the construction of large-scale wind photovoltaic bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas, and the superimposed distributed county is in full swing. Domestic photovoltaic demand reserves are sufficient. Overseas, we are optimistic that photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 30% to 140GW in 2022; under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the fluctuation of overseas traditional energy supply has increased, and the new photovoltaic energy is more economical and safer, and the installed capacity is expected to be speeded up. For example, Germany's new planned target for photovoltaic installed capacity by 2030 is 200GW, which corresponds to an average annual increase of more than 15GW installed in the future, which is nearly three times that of 2021. In the context of strong demand, since January 2022, silicon prices have maintained high market expectations, the current price is 240 + yuan / kg, we expect the supply and demand of silicon links in 2022 to continue, the annual average price may reach more than 180 yuan / kg, tight supply is also expected for the company's granular silicon technology large-scale production expansion, product quality improvement, and downstream verification import to provide development opportunities. Profit forecast and valuation Keep earnings forecasts for 2021, 22 and 23 unchanged, outperform industry rating and target price of HK $3.70, with 26% upside compared to current stock price, which corresponds to 2022 9.8x/9.4x PE 2023 and target price 12.4x / 11.94x PE in 2022. Risk. The downstream demand is not as expected, the production expansion progress is not as expected, and the production safety risk.

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