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保利协鑫能源(03800.HK)投资价值分析报告之二:FBR颗粒硅工艺 光伏多晶硅料的下一代核心技术
Poly Xiexin Energy (03800.HK) Investment value Analysis report part 2: the next Generation Core Technology of Photovoltaic Polysilicon material by FBR granular Silicon process

光大证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  FBR 颗粒硅为更加理想的光伏多晶硅料工艺:光伏多晶硅料的生产工艺,当前以改良西门子法为主。改良西门子法工艺,占据了全球光伏多晶硅料生产的97%以上,但是存在着高耗能、工艺繁杂等缺点。FBR 颗粒状多晶硅为工业研发追求的更加理想的工艺,不仅生产工序简单,还具备低耗能、连续生产、无需破碎三大优势。颗粒硅还可助力光伏产业碳减排,根据2021 年10 月公司取得法国能源署颁发的碳足迹认证证书,保利协鑫颗粒硅功能单位的碳足迹数值仅为37 千克二氧化碳含量。   保利协鑫自主研发+海外并购,颗粒硅技术革命产业链优势凸显:公司于2010年依靠改良西门子工艺成为光伏硅料全球龙头时,勇于革新,全力推动新一代颗粒硅技术研发。在自主研发+海外并购的双重推动下,公司于2019 年最终实现了颗粒硅产品的稳定量产。目前,公司光伏颗粒硅料产能提升至3 万吨,先发优势遥遥领先。颗粒硅产品各项品质指标已达到西门子法致密料的指标,部分指标更是优于致密料,且每万吨投资为7 亿余元、综合电耗为约18kWh/kg。颗粒硅的使用还进一步降低下游客户单晶产品生产成本,长晶环节成本最高可降低20%左右。市场拓展效果显著,2021 年公司累积的多晶硅产品(含颗粒硅)订单量接近60 万吨。在未来全球“碳达峰、碳中和”的趋势下,颗粒硅产品将会更具国际竞争实力。   积极解决产能瓶颈,打开CCZ 商业化新空间:2020 年光伏扩产潮背景下,硅料扩产严重滞后,硅料供应紧张,进而推动了下游客户对新技术颗粒硅的接纳。产能瓶颈为当前发展的核心矛盾,公司全力加快徐州、乐山、包头三地产能建设。   在硅料供应紧张问题解决后,颗粒硅产品的优势将会凸显,公司在光伏硅料的市场份额有望随之得到快速提升。另外,颗粒硅是CCZ 技术(终极直拉单晶技术)的关键环节。公司在CCZ 商业化上积极自主研发,通过收购获得了第五代CCZ连续直拉单晶技术及资产,未来有望进一步打开CCZ 商业化想象空间。   盈利预测、估值与评级:我们维持预测公司2021-2023 年净利润分别为52.86、62.90、70.25 亿元,对应EPS 为0.20、0.23、0.26 元。根据相对估值和绝对法结果,我们提高保利协鑫能源目标价至4.50 港元(2022 年PE 为16x)。基于硅料产业当前供给紧平衡状态,以及公司在颗粒硅技术上的突破,我们看好公司2021 年业绩扭转过去颓势,步入新一轮的成长周期,维持“买入”评级。   风险提示:行业波动风险;订单履行风险;核心技术人员流失的风险;技术替代、募投项目达产不及预期等风险

FBR granular silicon is a more ideal photovoltaic polysilicon material process: the production process of photovoltaic polysilicon material is mainly based on the improved Siemens method. The improved Siemens process accounts for more than 97% of the global photovoltaic polysilicon production, but it has some shortcomings such as high energy consumption and complicated process. FBR granular polysilicon is a more ideal process pursued by industrial R & D. it not only has a simple production process, but also has three advantages: low energy consumption, continuous production and no need for crushing. Granular silicon can also help reduce carbon emissions in the photovoltaic industry. According to the carbon footprint certification issued by the French Energy Agency in October 2021, the carbon footprint of the Poly Xiexin granular silicon functional unit is only 37 kg of carbon dioxide. Poly Xiexin independent research and development + overseas mergers and acquisitions, granular silicon technology revolution industrial chain advantages: in 2010, the company relies on improved Siemens process to become the global leader of photovoltaic silicon materials, dare to innovate, and make every effort to promote the research and development of a new generation of granular silicon technology. Driven by independent research and development and overseas mergers and acquisitions, the company finally achieved stable mass production of granular silicon products in 2019. At present, the company's photovoltaic granular silicon production capacity has increased to 30,000 tons, far ahead of the first-mover advantage. All the quality indexes of granular silicon products have reached the index of Siemens densification material, and some of them are better than those of densification material, and the investment is more than 700 million yuan per 10,000 tons, and the comprehensive power consumption is about 18kWh/kg. The use of granular silicon also further reduces the production cost of downstream customers' single crystal products, and the cost of crystal growth can be reduced by up to 20%. The market expansion effect is remarkable, and the order volume of polysilicon products (including granular silicon) accumulated by the company in 2021 is close to 600000 tons. In the future global "carbon peak, carbon neutralization" trend, granular silicon products will have more international competitive strength. Actively solve the capacity bottleneck and open up a new space for the commercialization of CCZ: under the background of photovoltaic expansion in 2020, the expansion of silicon is seriously lagging behind and the supply of silicon is tight, which promotes the acceptance of new technology granular silicon by downstream customers. Capacity bottleneck is the core contradiction of the current development, the company makes every effort to speed up the production capacity construction of Xuzhou, Leshan and Baotou. After the shortage of silicon supply is solved, the advantages of granular silicon products will be highlighted, and the company's market share in photovoltaic silicon is expected to increase rapidly. In addition, granular silicon is the key link of CCZ technology (ultimate Czochralski single crystal technology). The company is actively engaged in independent research and development in the commercialization of CCZ, and has acquired the fifth generation CCZ Czochralski single crystal technology and assets through acquisition, which is expected to further open the imagination space for CCZ commercialization in the future. Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we maintain the forecast of the company's 2021-2023 net profit of 52.86,62.90 and 7.025 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.20,0.23,0.26 yuan. Based on the relative valuation and absolute results, we raised the target price of Poly Xiexin Energy to HK $4.50 (PE is 16x in 2022). Based on the current tight supply balance of the silicon industry and the company's breakthroughs in granular silicon technology, we are optimistic that the company's performance in 2021 will reverse the past decline, enter a new round of growth cycle, and maintain its "buy" rating. Risk hints: industry fluctuation risk; order fulfillment risk; risk of loss of core technical personnel; risks such as technology substitution, underproduction of fund-raising projects, etc.

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