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保利协鑫能源(3800.HK)首次覆盖报告:聚焦多晶硅业务 颗粒硅技术实现稳产

西部证券 ·  {{timeTz}}
业务结构调整,多晶硅收入比例不断上升。硅片多晶转换单晶以及光伏电站补贴拖欠严重拖累了公司发展。2018 年起,公司连续三年亏损。公司启动战略调整,逐步出售电站,重新聚焦于光伏多晶硅料业务。

预计21 年硅料供需依旧偏紧,价格仍将维持高位。由于硅料扩产具有较大的滞后性,硅料新增产能无法填补下游硅片产能扩张缺口。预计21 年硅料需求约56 万吨,有效产能57 万吨,整体处于供给偏紧态势。22 年虽有多家企业在建产能投放,但大部分产能达产时间处于四季度前后,对于明年供应并没有太大贡献,且不排除有受到双控影响推后投产进度的可能性,预计22 年整体仍处于偏紧态势。

硅烷法生产耗量大幅降低,具备成本优势。目前生产1 千克颗粒硅耗电仅18 度,相较于西门子法60 度/千克有显著下降;水耗氢耗方面,FBR方法较西门子法降低30%/42%。投资方面,颗粒硅每万吨产能仅需要7亿初始投资,相较西门子法可降低1.5-2 亿元,具备成本优势。

掌握颗粒硅量产技术,迈入万吨级产能规模。公司未来规划徐州10 万吨、乐山10 万吨以及包头30 万吨颗粒硅产能。预计21-22 年公司颗粒硅产能可达3/26 万吨,实现大幅提升。颗粒硅产能规模的扩大助力公司具备规模优势,生产成本有望进一步降低,盈利能力有望逐步提升。

投资建议:预计公司21-23 年归母净利润为56.91/69.75/74.09 亿元,22及23 年同比增速分别为+22.6%/+6.2%, 21-23 年对应EPS 为0.23/0.28/0.30 元。综合考虑可比公司估值及公司历史三年PE 估值水平,给予公司22 年13 倍PE 的目标估值,对应目标价为4.45 港元,首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

风险提示:政策风险,高负债比率相关风险

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