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华虹半导体(01347.HK):盈利超预期下指引持续乐观 12寸产能稳步扩张

兴业证券 ·  {{timeTz}}
  营收超指引,产能利用率与ASP 提升下毛利率超指引。公司21Q3 收入4.5 亿美元(指引4.1 亿),YoY+78.5%,QoQ+30.4%,得益于MCU、射频、电源管理、标准式闪存以及超级结等业务需求强劲。毛利率27.1%(指引上限27%),QoQ+2.3ppts,YoY+2.9ppts,主要得益于ASP 提升,部分被折旧抵消。整体产能利用率达110.9%,QoQ+1.4ppts,YoY+15.1ppts。归母净利5,081 万,QoQ+15%,YoY+187%。

  通讯叠加内地需求提升,8 寸利用率持续超110%。通讯营收占比同比提升0.9ppts 至14.7%,收入YoY+90.7%,主要因CIS 及智能卡需求强劲。

  中国地区营收占比同比提升8ppts 至73.4%,收入YoY+100.5%,主要得益于各平台产品需求增长。8 寸厂期末产能利用率达112.1%,QoQ+0.2ppts , YoY+10.3ppts ; 毛利率35.2% , QoQ+3.6ppts ,YoY+9.8ppts。我们判断8寸利用率有望维持110%,毛利率或维持35%。

  六大平台助推下毛利率持续攀升,22H2 将扩至9.5 万片/月。无锡12 寸厂21Q3 营收1.36 亿,QoQ+62.5%,YoY+723%,收入占比提升至30.3%。三季度末产能为5.3 万片/月,利用率108.7%,QoQ+4.6ppts,YoY+52.3ppts。毛利率8.5%,QoQ+5.2ppts,YoY+26.5ppts。目前公司产能已达到6.5 万片/月,计划在明年底扩产至9.5 万片/月。我们判断在制程向55nm 演进下12 寸ASP 或持续增长,从而带动毛利率进一步提升,预计长期稳态下可达40%。

  21Q4 指引强劲,毛利率持续上抬至27%+。公司21Q4 指引:收入4.9 亿美元, QoQ+20% , YoY+80% ; 毛利率27%-78% , QoQ+0.4ppts ,YoY+1.7ppts。我们认为国产本地化生产需求以及新能源车需求景气将驱动公司22 年利用率仍然维持高位,供需紧平衡下ASP 仍有上升空间。

  投资建议:公司营收超指引上限以及8 寸/12 寸满载,反映了行业需求高景气;12 寸毛利率在产品组合优化下价逐步攀升,对冲折旧成本的增长。我们仍然看好公司作为中国头部晶圆代工厂的战略地位,此次扩产亦有助公司充分把握行业景气周期,带来业绩成长与确定性,上调公司2021 /2022 年收入预测3.6%/3.9%至15.96/21.30 亿美元,每股净资产2.12/2.31 美元。我们看好公司在景气周期下扩产对业绩带来的成长性与确定性,维持PB 估值水平3.6x,结合2022 年的预测每股净资产上调目标价9%至64.69 港元,维持“买入”评级。

  风险提示:需求景气度不及预期;无锡厂产能爬坡及产品组合优化不及预期

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