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阜丰集团(00546.HK):1H21业绩符合预期 静待需求恢复

中金公司 ·  {{timeTz}}
  1H21业绩符合我们预期

  公司公布1H21业绩:收入95.21亿元,同比+16.5%,环比11.7%;归母净利润5.91亿元,对应每股盈利0.23元,同比+55.9%,环比+135.5%;毛利率环比上升2.7ppt 至18.5%,符合预期。盈利有较大幅度增长主要由于苏氨酸量价齐升以及味精等产品能够顺利转嫁玉米成本压力。

  分板块看,食品添加剂、动物营养、高档氨基酸、胶体的营收分别为44.95/34.62/6.88/3.96亿元,占比分别为47.2%/36.4%/7.2%/4.2%,毛利率分别为13.4%/17.7%/44.8%/38.1%。

  发展趋势

  氨基酸类产品格局向好,公司核心竞争力强。当前苏氨酸/赖氨酸市场均价约11500/9130元/吨,与去年同期相比+38.6%/24.2%。随着氨基酸类产品低效产能逐渐退出,行业格局向好,我们认为产品价格中枢有望上行。同时,公司具有规模/成本/多元化布局等优势,我们看好公司未来的竞争力。原料支撑味精价格高位,静待行业需求恢复。从供给看,味精行业寡头格局稳定,产能CR3约80%,产量市占率合计近90%。行业总体供略大于求,公司产能位于行业第一;从需求看,味精下游需求结构中食品加工及添加剂近50%,餐饮消费近30%-40%,味精需求受疫情影响表现偏弱。当前,味精市场价8000元/吨,受成本支撑重回上行通道,价差方面,味精-玉米价格当前为2651元/吨,仍处于近五年低位。向前看,我们认为疫情边际影响减弱,伴随经济恢复,需求有望复苏,同时我们预计行业协同提升,下半年味精景气有望回升。

  盈利预测与估值

  维持2021年和2022年盈利预测不变。当前股价对应2021/2022年5.2倍/4.5倍市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和3.60港元目标价,对应6.8倍2021年市盈率和5.9倍2022年市盈率,较当前股价有32.8%的上行空间。

  风险

  需求恢复不及预期,成本传导不顺畅。

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