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澳优(1717.HK):羊奶粉恢复增长 牛奶粉增速放缓
1717.HK: goat milk powder resumes growth and milk powder growth slows down

安信国际 ·  {{timeTz}}

  澳优发布2021 年中期业绩,上半年收入42.7 亿/+10.7%,净利润5.7 亿/+36.2%。其中羊奶粉收入16.9 亿/+2%,二季度增速恢复至双位数。牛奶粉收入20.5 亿/+16.9%亿,二季度增速有明显放缓,主要是公司为确保渠道健康发展而调整了发货节奏。   羊奶粉库存恢复正常,二季度实现双位数增速。在经历了2020 年窜货事件之后,公司积极进行渠道管控,加强价格监管,控制发货节奏,并且进行广泛的经销商走访,增强经销商信心。渠道库存逐步降低,从财务层面也可看出羊奶粉业务在逐季改善。21Q2 羊奶粉收入8.17 亿,同比增长13.8%,增速重回双位数。当前渠道库存2 个多月,属于合理水平。   牛奶粉二季度增速放缓。21Q2 牛奶粉收入7.6 亿,同比增长1.6%,主要是海普诺凯1897业务大安源增速放缓,原因包括:1)去年同期高基数的影响;2)一季度产品促销政策变动,从五赠一改为六赠一,导致经销商在一季度囤货;3)行业中出现价格战,导致产品价格下行,且618 活动冲击了线下销售。基于发现的这些问题,公司及时调整发货节奏,组织团队时时监督市场价格,目前终端销售价格已经企稳回升,终端库存控制在1.5个月。公司表示会在三季度继续加强管控,四季度希望恢复增长。   营养品业务持续推进。上半年营养品收入0.68 亿,同比增长3.5%。疫情导致澳洲业务代购活动大幅减少,而中国营养品业务同比增长33%,表现良好。今年上半年NutritionCare 上线多款益生菌产品,继续开拓市场。   上半年毛利率同比下降,自有品牌毛利率上升。上半年年毛利率50.0%/-2.4ppt,羊奶粉毛利率62.1%/+1.7ppt,牛奶粉59.6%/+3.6ppt,营养品63.1%/+3.7ppt,私人品牌及其他0.3%/-14.8ppt,存货减值1.8 亿/+215%。自有品牌毛利率的提升主要是去年进行了一些促销活动以减少渠道库存,今年得以重建稳健的价格体系,从而在毛利率上有所提升。另外上游工厂的效率提升也帮助了毛利率的提升。上半年计提存货减值使得整体毛利率同比下滑。上半年净利率13.4%/+2.5ppt,去年上半年有金融资产公允价值变动损失1.6 亿,扣除这一支出后,调整后净利润同比有轻微下滑。   综合来看,我们认为尽管市场竞争在加剧,公司在这样的市场环境中依然保持了较好的竞争力,羊奶粉逐步恢复,牛奶粉虽有波折,但也及时得到调整。奶粉高端化仍在持续,我们看好公司在高端赛道的表现。我们基本维持之前的盈利预测,21/22/23 年净利润分别为12.3/15.5/17.3 亿人民币,对应EPS 为0.9/1.13/1.26 港元。   考虑出生人口下滑对股价的压制,我们下调目标价,维持“买入”评级,目标价15.0 港元,较当前股价有91%涨幅。   风险提示:出生人口下滑超出预期;行业竞争加剧;行业或者公司发生严重安全事故。

Australian excellent released its mid-term results for 2021, with revenue of 4.27 billion / + 10.7% and net profit of 570 million / + 36.2% in the first half of the year. Among them, sheep's milk powder revenue was 1.69 billion / + 2%, and the growth rate returned to double digits in the second quarter. Milk powder revenue 2.05 billion / + 1.69 billion, the growth rate slowed down significantly in the second quarter, mainly because the company adjusted the delivery pace to ensure the healthy development of the channel. Sheep milk powder inventory returned to normal, achieving double-digit growth in the second quarter. After experiencing the event of fleeing goods in 2020, the company actively carried out channel control, strengthened price supervision, controlled the delivery rhythm, and conducted extensive dealer visits to enhance dealer confidence. Channel inventory gradually decreased, from the financial level can also be seen that sheep milk powder business is improving quarter by quarter. The revenue of 21Q2 goat milk powder was 817 million, an increase of 13.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate returned to double digits. The current channel inventory is more than 2 months, which is a reasonable level. The growth rate of milk powder slowed in the second quarter. 21Q2 milk powder revenue 760 million, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth rate of Hipnokai's Da Anyuan business, including: 1) the impact of the high base in the same period last year; 2) the change in product promotion policy in the first quarter from five free one to six free one, resulting in dealers hoarding goods in the first quarter; 3) there was a price war in the industry, leading to a decline in product prices, and offline sales were hit by 1897 activities. Based on these problems, the company adjusts the delivery rhythm in time and organizes a team to monitor the market price from time to time. At present, the terminal sales price has stabilized and rebounded, and the terminal inventory has been controlled at 1.5 months. The company said it would continue to tighten controls in the third quarter and hope to resume growth in the fourth quarter. The nutrition business continues to advance. Nutrition income in the first half of the year was 68 million, up 3.5% from the same period last year. The epidemic led to a sharp decline in purchasing agents in Australia, while China's nutrition business grew 33 per cent year-on-year and performed well. In the first half of this year, NutritionCare launched a number of probiotic products and continued to open up the market. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin decreased compared with the same period last year, while the gross profit margin In the first half of the year, annual gross margin 50.0%/-2.4ppt, goat milk powder 62.1%/+1.7ppt, milk powder 59.6%/+3.6ppt, nutrition 63.1%/+3.7ppt, private brands and other 0.3%/-14.8ppt, inventory impairment 180 million / + 215%. The increase in own-brand gross profit margin is mainly due to some promotions carried out last year to reduce channel inventory, and this year has been able to rebuild a robust price system, resulting in an increase in gross profit margin. In addition, the improvement of the efficiency of the upstream factories has also helped to improve the gross profit margin. The impairment of inventory in the first half of the year led to a year-on-year decline in overall gross margin. Net interest rate in the first half of the year 13.4%/+2.5ppt, there was a loss of 160 million in the fair value of financial assets in the first half of last year. After deducting this expense, the adjusted net profit decreased slightly compared with the same period last year. On the whole, we think that although the market competition is intensifying, the company still maintains a good competitiveness in such a market environment, sheep milk powder gradually recovers, although milk powder has twists and turns, it is also adjusted in time. The high-end milk powder is still going on, and we are optimistic about the company's performance on the high-end track. We basically maintain our previous profit forecast, with an annual net profit of 1.23 billion yuan for 21-22-23, corresponding to HK $1.13 billion for EPS. Taking into account the decline in the birth population to suppress the stock price, we lowered the target price and maintained the "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $15.0, up 91% from the current share price. Risk tips: the number of births has declined more than expected; competition in the industry has intensified; and serious safety accidents have occurred in the industry or companies.

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