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澳优(1717.HK)2021年中报业绩点评:21Q2佳贝艾特恢复增长 渠道调整再出发
Australian excellent (1717.HK) 2021 medium report performance comment: 21Q2 Jia Beit resumes growth channel adjustment and starts again

光大证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

事件: 2021 年8 月12 日,澳优发布2021 年上半年经营业绩,21H1 实现营业收入42.71 亿元,同比+10.65%;归母净利润5.94 亿元,同比+45.31%,若剔除去年一次性费用,调整后归母净利润同比+3.4%。其中,21Q2 实现营业收入20.87 亿元,同比+8.36%;归母净利润2.63 亿元,同比+88.62%。 Q2 整体增速略有放缓,佳贝艾特恢复增长: 公司21Q1/21Q2 营收分别增长12.9%/8.4%,公司二季度业绩增长主要系佳贝艾特中国21Q2 收入增速较快。 拆分来看,1)21H1 公司自家品牌配方奶粉中,中国地区牛奶粉/羊奶粉业务实现收入20.53/16.88 亿元,yoy +16.9%/+2.0%,其中①在羊奶粉中,中国/境外地区实现羊奶粉收入15.98/0.90 亿元,yoy+4.1/-25.3%,中国地区是业务增长的主要来源。羊奶粉业务保持复苏态势,2021Q2 自家配方羊奶粉佳贝艾特中国地区收入yoy+17.8%,较2021Q1 yoy-5.9%的降幅转为正增长。②公司牛奶粉业务收入的增长,主要来自海普诺凯1897 的拉动,2021H1 海普诺凯1897 实现收入13.74 亿元,yoy+18.9%,但增速较前期有所放缓。2)私人品牌及其他/营养品业务21H1 实现收入0.90/3.71 亿元,yoy-0.6%/+27.2%。公司整体营收实现稳健增长,系公司不断完善产业链和优化产品组合,坚持拥抱母婴渠道,以高频次高质量活动赋能渠道。 存货拨备影响毛利率,国内疫情好转提升广宣力度:2021H1 公司毛利率/净利率50.0%/13.4%,同比-2.4pcts/+2.5pcts,毛利率下降的主要系欧洲为公司相关贸易的主要市场,受到疫情反复的影响,商品价格处于低位,对毛利率产生显著负面影响;另外,存货拨备的增加预计对毛利率影响2.9pcts。2021H1 公司管理/销售费用率分别为7.8%/ 26.2%,同比-0.5pcts/+0.7pcts,管理费用率的下降主要受规模经济效应及实施成本控制的影响;销售费用率提升主要系国内疫情好转,以及市场竞争加剧而增加广告宣传费用。 行业竞争加剧、监管趋严,渠道改革应对行业变化:1)今年以来奶粉消费价格下行,一方面是因为奶粉需求下滑,头部奶粉品牌增速均有所下降;另一方面是因为行业竞争加剧,具体表现在618 线上促销时间拉长,低价促销扰乱价格体系,以及来自国外奶粉的竞争压力增大。另外,今年行业监管政策出现新的变化,对行业造成一定扰动。2)为应对行业变化,海普诺凯1897 对渠道进行改革,6月1 日起公司采取新销售模式,对门店进行四级管理,打通从厂家到消费者全网络,精简费用投放,防止市场窜货的发生。下半年公司将加强二段、三段的新客开发,加强地推活动,并采取措施提升消费者复购率。 盈利预测、估值与评级:考虑今年奶粉消费价格下行、行业竞争加剧,下调公司2021 年归母净利润预测为12.03 亿元(较前值-6.0%),维持2022-2023 年净利润预测14.81/16.93 亿元,折合2021-2023 年EPS 分别为0.70/0.86/0.99 元,当前股价对应PE 为9/7/6 倍,维持“增持”评级。 风险提示:经济增速放缓压力加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全问题。

Event: on August 12, 2021, Australian excellent announced its operating results for the first half of 2021. 21H1 achieved operating income of 4.271 billion yuan, + 10.65% year-on-year, and net profit of 594 million yuan, + 45.31% compared with the same period last year. If last year's one-time fees are excluded, the adjusted net profit of return to home is + 3.4% compared with the same period last year. Of this total, 21Q2 realized operating income of 2.087 billion yuan, + 8.36% year-on-year, and net profit of 263 million yuan, + 88.62% over the same period last year. The overall growth rate of Q2 slowed slightly, and Jiabei returned to growth: the company's 21Q1/21Q2 revenue grew by 12.9% and 8.4% respectively. The company's second-quarter performance growth was mainly due to the rapid growth of Jiabeite's 21Q2 revenue in China. From the split point of view, 1) in 21H1's own brand formula, the income of milk powder / goat milk powder business in China is 2.053 billion yuan, and yoy+ 16.9% is 2.0%. Among them, 1 in goat milk powder, the income of goat milk powder in China / overseas regions is 1.598 billion yuan, and yoy+4.1/-25.3%, China is the main source of business growth. Goat milk powder business maintained a recovery, 2021Q2's own formula sheep milk powder Jia Beit China income yoy+17.8%, than 2021Q1 yoy-5.9% decline turned to positive growth. 2 the growth of the company's milk powder business revenue mainly came from the pull of 1897 of Hipnokai, and the income of 1897 of 2021H1 Heppenokai achieved 1.374 billion yuan, but the growth rate of yoy+18.9%, slowed down somewhat compared with the previous period. 2) Private brands and other / nutrition business 21H1 realized revenue of 0.90 million yuan, yoy-0.6%/+27.2%. The company's overall revenue to achieve steady growth, the company continues to improve the industrial chain and optimize the product mix, adhere to embrace mother-to-child channels, with high-frequency sub-high-quality activities enabling channels. The inventory provision affects the gross profit margin, and the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation enhances the publicity: 2021H1's gross profit margin / net profit rate is 50.0%, 13.4%, year-on-year-2.4pcts/+2.5pcts. The decline in gross profit margin is mainly in Europe, which is the main market for company-related trade. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, commodity prices are low, which has a significant negative impact on gross profit margin. In addition, the increase in inventory provision is expected to affect gross profit margin 2.9pcts. The management / sales expense rate of 2021H1 company is 7.8% / 26.2% respectively, compared with the same period of last year-0.5pcts/+0.7pcts. The decline of management expense rate is mainly affected by economies of scale and the implementation of cost control; the increase in sales expense rate is mainly due to the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the increase of advertising expenses due to the intensification of market competition. Industry competition has intensified, supervision has tightened, and channel reform has responded to industry changes: 1) since the beginning of this year, the consumer price of milk powder has declined, on the one hand, because of the decline in demand for milk powder, the growth rate of head milk powder brands has declined; on the other hand, it is due to the intensification of competition in the industry. the specific performance is the lengthening of 618 online promotion time, low-price promotion disrupting the price system, and increased competitive pressure from foreign milk powder. In addition, there have been new changes in the regulatory policy of the industry this year, causing some disturbance to the industry. 2) in order to cope with the changes in the industry, Hipnokai 1897 carried out channel reform. Since June 1, the company has adopted a new sales model, carrying out four-level management of stores, opening up the whole network from manufacturers to consumers, and streamlining costs to prevent the occurrence of goods channeling in the market. In the second half of the year, the company will strengthen the development of new customers in the second and third stages, strengthen ground promotion activities, and take measures to improve the repurchase rate of consumers. Profit forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the downward consumer prices of milk powder this year and the intensification of competition in the industry, the company's net profit forecast for 2021 is lowered to 1.203 billion yuan (compared to the previous value-6.0%), and the net profit forecast for 2022-2023 is 1.481 billion yuan, equivalent to 0.70 EPS 0.86x0.99 yuan for 2021-2023. The current stock price corresponds to the PE of 9-7-6, maintaining the "overweight" rating. Risk hints: increasing pressure on slowing economic growth, increased competition in the industry, and food safety problems.

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