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澳优(01717.HK):牛奶粉增长势能强劲 羊奶粉复苏显现
01717.HK: the growth potential of milk powder is strong and the recovery of goat milk powder appears.

安信证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  事件:澳优乳业披露2021 年一季报。Q1 公司实现营业收入/归母净利润21.8/3.3亿元,同比+12.9%/+22.9%(经调整+11%),调整后增速下降主要由于20Q1 公司就衍生金融工具公允价值变动录入亏损2,900 万元,而至21Q1 该会计影响已消除。   海普诺凯牛奶粉高双位数增长,增长势能强劲。21Q1 自有品牌牛奶粉实现营收10.5 亿元,同比+36.5%,其中海普诺凯1897 实现营收7.2 亿元,同比+58.7%(vs 2020全年营收同比+52.7%),增势保持强劲,超市场预期,主要得益于国内产品升级和市场细分化趋势加强而公司营销策略精准有效,2020 年Q2 开始海普诺凯1897 业务单元签约钢琴家郎朗为全球品牌形象代言人,独家冠名热播综艺节目,增强品牌传播和销售拉动。公司规划将于21Q3 推出新品,并计划在2021 年有序拓展4,000-5,000家终端优质门店,预计全年海普诺凯有望维持较高增速。其他牛奶粉(能立多、美纳多)经过去年事业部重组后一季度实现营收3.4 亿元,同比+4.9%,重拾增长态势。   羊奶粉复苏显现,全年趋势向好。21Q1 公司自有品牌羊奶粉实现营收8.7 亿元,同比/环比分别-7.1%/+15.3%,收入占比提升至39.9%(vs20Q4 34.5%),复苏显现。   其中国内收入同比-5.9%,主要由于去年同期疫情影响渠道囤货致基数较高;国外同比-27.2%,系疫情影响持续;国内羊奶收入环比+29.7%,收入占比提升至38.2%(vs20Q4 29.4%),自20Q2 开始的渠道窜货基本调整结束,目前渠道库存水平健康,终端动销恢复,市场价盘逐步企稳。今年公司独家冠名综艺《戏剧新生活》、热剧《赘婿》,围绕小红书、知乎等渠道提升品牌力和产品口碑,我们认为去年的窜货没有影响佳贝艾特作为国内羊奶粉细分龙头的地位,伴随经销商信心持续恢复和新客持续开发,预计2021Q2-Q4 羊奶粉业务在去年低基数下有望提速。   盈利能力保持稳定,提升成本控制能力。公司毛利率自20Q3 的46.5%稳步提升至21Q1 的51.1%,环比+2.0pct。同比-2.8pct,主要是欧洲贸易业务中副产品价格和存货拨备的影响。费用率方面,销售/管理费用率分别为25.5%/8.0%,同比持平。得益于毛利率的稳步提升和良好的费用管控,公司调整后净利率达到15.2%,基本恢复至20Q1 水平,同比/环比分别-0.2/+1.6pct。   Q1 开局奠定全年双位数增长基调。2021Q1 公司在高基数下仍获得较高增长,为全年不低于15%增长、自有品牌产品销售额增速高于总体增速的业绩目标奠定了良好的基础。公司牛奶粉增速亮眼,羊奶粉复苏态势确立,产品结构有望持续优化。   中长期看,公司研发创新连贯,产品布局合理,渠道管控良好,为持续增长护航。   投资建议:买入-A 投资评级,6 个月目标价16.98 港币。我们预计公司2021-2023年每股收益分别为0.8、0.9、1.1 元,目标价相当于2022 年15x PE。   风险提示:1)高端婴配牛奶粉竞争加剧;1)食品安全问题;3)海外疫情蔓延等。

Event: Australian excellent Dairy publishes its quarterly report for 2021. Q1 realized operating income / homing net profit of 21.8 / 330 million yuan, compared with the same period last year (+ 12.9%). (adjusted + 11%). The decline in the adjusted growth rate was mainly due to the fact that 20Q1 recorded a loss of 29 million yuan on changes in the fair value of derivative financial instruments, while the accounting impact of 21Q1 has been eliminated. Hai Pu Nuokai milk powder has high double-digit growth and strong growth potential energy. The revenue of 21Q1 own-brand milk powder reached 1.05 billion yuan, + 36.5% compared with the same period last year, of which Hipnokai 1897 achieved revenue of 720 million yuan, + 58.7% (vs 2020 revenue for the whole year + 52.7%), the growth trend remained strong, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic product upgrading and market differentiation trend, and the company's marketing strategy is accurate and effective. In 2020, Q2 began to sign the pianist Lang Lang as the global brand image spokesman in the 1897 business unit of Hipnokai, which exclusively named popular variety shows to enhance brand communication and sales promotion. The company plans to launch new products in 21Q3 and plans to expand its 4000-5000 terminal high-quality stores in an orderly manner in 2021. Hypokay is expected to maintain a high growth rate throughout the year. Other milk powder (Nolido, Menado) achieved revenue of 340 million yuan in the first quarter after the reorganization of the business department last year, + 4.9% from the same period last year, regaining the growth trend. The recovery of goat milk powder shows, and the trend is improving throughout the year. 21Q1's own brand goat milk powder achieved revenue of 870 million yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month ratio of-7.1% to 15.3% respectively, and the share of revenue increased to 39.9% (vs20Q4 34.5%), showing a recovery. Among them, the domestic income is-5.9% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the high base caused by the channel hoarding caused by the epidemic in the same period last year; abroad-27.2% compared with the same period last year, the impact of the epidemic persists; domestic sheep's milk income is + 29.7%, and the proportion of income increases to 38.2% (vs20Q4 29.4%). The basic adjustment of channel channeling goods since 20Q2 has ended, the current channel inventory level is healthy, the terminal mobile sales have recovered, and the market price has gradually stabilized. This year, the company exclusively named variety "Drama New Life" and hit drama "superfluous son-in-law". Around Little Red Book, Zhihu and other channels to enhance brand strength and product reputation, we think that the fleeing of goods last year did not affect Jiabeite's position as the domestic sheep milk powder subdivision leader. With the continued recovery of dealer confidence and the continuous development of new customers, it is expected that 2021Q2-Q4 goat milk powder business will speed up under the low base last year. Keep the profitability stable and improve the ability of cost control. The company's gross margin rose steadily from 46.5% of 20Q3 to 51.1% of 21Q1, compared with + 2.0pct. Year-on-year-2.8pct, mainly due to the impact of by-product prices and inventory provisions in European trading operations. In terms of expense rate, the sales / management expense rate was 25.5% and 8.0% respectively, which was the same as that of the same period last year. Thanks to the steady improvement of gross profit margin and good cost control, the adjusted net profit rate of the company reached 15.2%, which basically returned to the 20Q1 level, year-on-year / month-on-month respectively-0.2/+1.6pct. The start of Q1 sets the tone for double-digit growth throughout the year. 2021Q1 still achieved high growth even from a high base, laying a good foundation for the performance target of not less than 15% growth for the whole year and sales growth of private brand products higher than the overall growth rate. The growth rate of the company's milk powder is eye-catching, the recovery trend of goat milk powder is established, and the product structure is expected to continue to be optimized. In the medium and long term, the company has continuous R & D and innovation, reasonable product layout and good channel control, which is an escort for sustained growth. Investment advice: buy-An investment rating, 6-month target price of HK $16.98. We expect the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to be 0.8,0.90 and 1.10 yuan respectively, and the target price is equivalent to 15x PE in 2022. Risk tips: 1) increased competition for high-end infant milk powder; 1) food safety problems; 3) overseas epidemic spread and so on.

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