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澳优(1717.HK)2021年一季度业绩点评:一季度稳健开局 复苏之中无惧存量博弈
Comments on 1717.HK 's performance in the first quarter of 2021: fearless stock game in a steady start to recovery in the first quarter

光大证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  事件: 2021 年5 月11 日,澳优发布2021 年一季度经营业绩,报告期内公司实现营业收入21.83 亿元,yoy+12.94%,实现归母净利润3.31 亿元,yoy+22.95%,同比2020Q1 经调整后归母净利润增长10.98%,符合市场预期。   一季度稳健开局,牛奶粉增速亮眼: 公司2021Q1 实现营收21.83 亿元,yoy+12.94%,营收增速表现亮眼主要源自公司牛奶粉的高速增长。拆分来看,2021Q1 公司中国地区牛奶粉/羊奶粉业务实现收入10.53/8.72 亿元,yoy+36.47%/-7.07%,其中在羊奶粉中,中国/境外地区实现羊奶粉收入8.35/0.37亿元,yoy-5.92%/ -27.17%。私人品牌及其他/营养品业务实现收入2.31/0.27亿元,yoy+19.83%/ -11.26%。公司牛奶粉业务收入迅速增长,来自于海普诺凯1897 的大幅增长,2021Q1 海普诺凯1897 实现收入7.18 亿元,yoy+58.7%,继续成为公司增长最快的业务单元。羊奶粉业务保持复苏态势,2021Q1 自家品牌羊奶粉业务收入yoy-7.07%,较2020Q4 yoy-12.16%的降幅有所收窄。从环比看,公司中国地区羊奶粉业务收入较2020Q4 环比+29.67%,保持复苏态势。   公司整体营收实现稳健增长,源于公司在市场转变环境下迅速调整策略,坚持拥抱母婴渠道,以高频次高质量活动赋能渠道。   净利水平小幅提升,期间费用率保持稳定:2021Q1 公司毛利率/净利率51.11%/14.72%,同比-2.76pcts/+0.73pcts,毛利率下降的主要原因为公司在2021Q1 战略性采购原羊奶,相关部分产生的经营亏损约0.19 亿元,大宗贸易和存货拨备的增加预计对毛利率各影响1pcts。2021Q1 公司管理/销售费用率分别为7.97%/ 25.52%,同比-0.07pcts/-0.11pcts,整体保持稳定,其中品牌推广费用比去年同期增加1pcts,在费用管理上,公司发挥多BU 制的经营优势,在销售费用的投放上保持一定的灵活性。   展望全年,渠道精细化管理+新品迭代助力持续发展:1)从渠道上看,公司将更加注重通过会员营销系统对渠道进行有效管理,在执行上采用“一罐一码”,做好全链追溯;2)在新品开发与宣传上,今年佳贝艾特悠装系列包装升级值得期待,有机羊奶粉有望在年底面市,同时佳贝艾特第四系列和纯液态羊奶产品也在研发之中,海普诺凯系列在今年3 月已推出儿童成长配方奶粉,迈入多品类发展新阶段,同时今年有望扩充婴幼儿特配奶粉品类;在品牌宣传与营销上,2021Q1 公司主力产品佳贝艾特携手《赘婿》火热出圈,《赘婿》作为爱奇艺史上热度最快破万的项目,使佳贝艾特品牌知名度迅速提升。   盈利预测、估值与评级:看好公司进一步渠道管理和扩充品类的能力,维持2021-2023 年营收预测92.36/ 105.11/ 118.98 亿元,维持净利润预测12.80/14.81/16.93 亿元,维持PE 预测14/12/11 倍,维持“增持”评级。   风险提示:经济增速放缓压力加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全问题

Event: on May 11, 2021, Australia excellent released its operating results for the first quarter of 2021. During the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 2.183 billion yuan, yoy+12.94%, achieved a net profit of 331 million yuan, and yoy+22.95%, increased its net profit by 10.98% compared with 2020Q1, which is in line with market expectations. A steady start to the first quarter, milk powder growth rate is eye-catching: the company's 2021Q1 revenue achieved 2.183 billion yuan, yoy+12.94%, revenue growth performance is mainly due to the company's milk powder high-speed growth. From the split point of view, the income of 2021Q1's milk powder / goat milk powder business in China is 1.053 / 872 million yuan, of which in yoy+36.47%/-7.07%, the income of goat milk powder in China / overseas areas is 8.35 / 37 million yuan, yoy-5.92%/-27.17%. The income of private brand and other / nutrition business is 2.31 / 27 million yuan, yoy+19.83%/-11.26%. The rapid growth of the company's milk powder business revenue comes from the substantial growth of Hipnokai in 1897, 2021Q1 Hipnokai achieved an income of 718 million yuan in 1897, and yoy+58.7%, continues to be the company's fastest-growing business unit. Sheep milk powder business continues to recover, 2021Q1 own brand sheep milk powder business income yoy-7.07%, than 2020Q4 yoy-12.16% narrowed. From a month-on-month point of view, the company's sheep milk powder business income in China is 29.67% higher than that of 2020Q4, maintaining the trend of recovery. The steady growth of the company's overall revenue stems from the company's rapid adjustment of strategy under the changing market environment, insisting on embracing mother-to-child channels and empowering channels with high-frequency and sub-high-quality activities. The level of net profit increased slightly, and the expense rate remained stable during the period: 2021Q1's gross profit margin / net profit rate was 51.11% 14.72%, compared with the same period last year. 0.73 pcts, the main reason for the decline in gross profit margin is that the company strategically purchased raw sheep milk from 2021Q1, resulting in an operating loss of about 19 million yuan. The increase in bulk trade and inventory provision is expected to affect 1pcts respectively. The management / sales expense rates of 2021Q1 were 7.97% / 25.52% respectively, compared with the same period last year. The rate of management / sales expenses of the company was 7.97% / 25.52%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The rate of management / sales expenses of the company was 7.97% / 25.52%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Looking forward to the whole year, channel fine management + new product iteration to promote sustainable development: 1) from the channel point of view, the company will pay more attention to effective channel management through member marketing system, adopt "one can, one code" in implementation, and do a good job of full chain traceability. 2) in the development and promotion of new products, it is worth looking forward to the upgrading of the Jiabeite leisurely series packaging this year. Organic goat milk powder is expected to be on the market by the end of the year. At the same time, the fourth series of Jiabeite and pure liquid goat milk products are also under research and development. Hipnokai series has launched children's growth formula in March this year, entering a new stage of multi-category development, at the same time, it is expected to expand the category of specially matched milk powder for infants and young children this year. In brand promotion and marketing, 2021Q1's main product, Jiabeite, has joined hands with "son-in-law", which is the most popular project in the history of iQiyi, which makes the brand awareness of Jiabei Aite improve rapidly. Profit forecast, valuation and rating: optimistic about the company's ability to further channel management and expand its category, maintain the 2021-2023 revenue forecast of 92.36 / 105.11 / 11.898 billion yuan, maintain the net profit forecast of 1.2801,693 million yuan, maintain the PE forecast of 14-12-11 times, and maintain the "overweight" rating. Risk hints: increasing pressure on slowing economic growth, intensified competition in the industry, and food safety problems.

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