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澳优(1717.HK):牛奶粉强劲增长 羊奶粉环比恢复
1717.HK: strong growth of milk powder, month-on-month recovery of goat milk powder

长城证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  2021 年Q1 公司实现营业收入21.83 亿元,同比增长12.9%;调整后净利润3.31 亿元,同比增长11%。   牛奶粉强劲增长,海普诺凯领跑,羊奶粉环比恢复。自有品牌配方奶粉收入为19.25 亿元,同比增长12.6%。1)牛奶粉业务:自有品牌配方牛奶粉业务10.53 亿元,同比增长36.5%,继续保持双位数增长。超高端海普诺凯生物实现营业收入为7.18 亿元,同比增长58.7%,领跑并成为澳优增长最快的业务单元,其中明星大单品表现靓丽,品牌力继续提升,垂直门店增长强劲。2)羊奶粉业务:2021 年Q1 佳贝艾特同比下降7.1%,主要受疫情期间高基数影响,环比恢复显著,佳贝艾特中国区收入为8.35 亿元,环比增长达29.7%,目前佳贝艾特渠道改革成效显著,市场定价逐步回稳,存货水平恢复正常。   毛利率环比改善,净利率同比提升。公司毛利率为51.11%,同比下滑2.75PCT,环比增长2.8PCT,环比改善,主要系2020 年Q2 起公司战略性选择增购原羊奶,疫情封城以及乳制品相关产品价格下滑,买卖产生的亏损环比恢复;销售及管理费用率基本持平;公司净利率为14.5%,同比提升0.69PCT。   健康领域逐步加码,研发驱动未来发展,符合黄金10 年战略。1)特医婴儿无乳糖配方获批:2021 年Q1 澳优新增一款特殊医学用途婴儿无乳糖配方食品获批,未来有望结合公司优势品牌,新产品进军。2)益生菌方面:澳优旗下益生菌业务品牌锦旗生物申报的MP108 鼠李糖乳杆菌获批可用于婴幼儿食品中的菌种,研发驱动长期发展。3)营养品NutritionCare:Nutrition Care 部分产品转由中国国内进行供应。计划将于Q2 开始在中国生产部分营养品,产品组合有望不断拓展,延伸至儿童及成人营养品。   投资建议:牛奶粉快速增长,海普诺凯领跑,羊奶粉环比恢复扎实精进,研发驱动公司特医及益生菌赛道表现。我们预计公司21-23 年营业收入分别为97.43、116.91、137.96 亿元人民币,净利润分别为12.38、15.12、18.36亿元人民币,对应的EPS 分别为0.72、0.88、1.07 元,对应21-23 年PE为15、12、10X,维持“增持”评级。   风险提示:铺货率提升缓慢,原料价格上涨,新品销售不及预期,国际贸易摩擦增加,食品安全问题。

In 2021, Q1 Company realized operating income of 2.183 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year, and adjusted net profit of 331 million yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. Milk powder grew strongly, Hipnokai took the lead, and goat milk powder recovered from a month-on-month basis. The revenue of private-brand formula was 1.925 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year. 1) Milk powder business: private brand formula milk powder business totaled 1.053 billion yuan, an increase of 36.5% over the same period last year, and continued to maintain double-digit growth. Ultra-high-end Hypokay Biology realized business income of 718 million yuan, an increase of 58.7% over the same period last year, taking the lead and becoming the fastest-growing business unit of Australia excellent. Among them, star large single products performed beautifully, brand power continued to improve, and vertical stores grew strongly. 2) Sheep milk powder business: Q1 Jiabei Aite dropped 7.1% in 2021 compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the high base during the epidemic, and the month-on-month recovery was significant. Jiabei Aite's income in China was 835 million yuan, an increase of 29.7% compared with the previous month. At present, Jiabeit channel reform has achieved remarkable results, market pricing has gradually stabilized, and inventory levels have returned to normal. The gross profit margin improved month-on-month, while the net profit margin increased year on year. The company's gross profit margin was 51.11%, down 2.75 PCT from the same period last year, and increased 2.8 PCT month-on-month, which was mainly due to the strategic purchase of raw goat milk from Q2 in 2020, the closure of the epidemic and the decline in the price of dairy-related products, and the recovery of losses caused by buying and selling; the rate of sales and management expenses was basically flat; the company's net profit rate was 14.5%, an increase of 0.69PCT over the same period last year. The field of health is gradually increased, and R & D drives future development, which is in line with the golden 10-year strategy. 1) Special medicine infant lactose-free formula approved: in 2021, Q1 Aoyou added a special medical infant lactose-free formula food approved, in the future is expected to combine the company's dominant brand, new products to enter. 2) probiotics: MP108 Lactobacillus rhamnosus, which is declared by Jinqi, a probiotic business brand of Aoyou, has been approved to be used as a strain in infant food, and R & D drives long-term development. 3) some of the nutritional NutritionCare:Nutrition Care products are supplied from China. It is planned that Q2 will begin to produce some nutrition products in China, and the product portfolio is expected to continue to expand to include nutrition products for children and adults. Investment advice: the rapid growth of milk powder, Hipnokai taking the lead, goat milk powder to restore solid and progressive, research and development to drive the company's special medicine and probiotic track performance. We estimate that the company's operating income for 21-23 years will be 97.43 yuan, 116.91 yuan and 13.796 billion yuan respectively, and its net profit will be 12.38 yuan, 15.12 yuan and 1.836 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.72,0.88,1.07 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE for 21-23 years will be 15,12,10X, maintaining the "overweight" rating. Risk tips: slow increase in inventory rate, rising raw material prices, lower-than-expected sales of new products, increased international trade frictions, food safety problems.

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