Q1 业绩在高基数情况下取得双位数增长，超预期。公司Q1 实现营收21.8亿元，同增12.9%，其中核心业务自有品牌奶粉营收19.3 亿元，同增12.6%。在2020 Q1 收入基数较高，2021 婴配粉市场整体竞争加剧的情况下，公司取得双位数增长，表现超市场预期。Q1 公司实现归母净利润3.3 亿元，同比增长22.9%，撇去20 年同期股权激励公允价值变动损益影响，调整后净利润同比增长11.0%。 海普诺凯逆势高增，整体牛奶粉预计保持快速增长。公司牛奶粉Q1 营收为10.5 亿元，同增36.5 %，核心单品海普诺凯在婴配粉市场整体竞争加剧的情况下仍取得逆势高速增长，销售额达7.2 亿元，同增58.7%。同时能力多经过去年经营架构调整，销售额亦恢复快速增长。预计海普诺凯今年将继续打造“1+3”产品组合，加大品牌建设投入，增加活动频次，稳健开拓终端，同时考虑到能力多、美纳多品牌协同发力，我们预测公司牛奶粉2021 年营收将维持高双位数增长。 羊奶粉调整基本结束，全年有望恢复双位数增长。公司羊奶粉Q1 营收为8.7 亿元，同降7.1%，降幅较2020 Q4（-12.8%）收窄，同时较Q4 环比增长15.3%，呈改善趋势。国内/海外羊奶粉营收分别为8.3/0.4 亿元，同降5.9%/27.2%。海外市场降幅较大主要受疫情影响，但占比较低对总营收影响有限。国内营收环比Q4 大幅增长29.7%，同比仍降主要由于去年经销商及消费者疫情期间囤货导致营收高基数。但可观察到公司在Q3/Q4对奶粉的渠道调整已见成效，销售节奏已基本恢复，渠道库存及销售情况已调整回正常水平。预计公司将继续夯实渠道，通过召开经销商大会、调整销售模式及增强线上线下品牌营销的方式提振经销商信心，同时预计公司今明两年或将推出更多高端新品，丰富羊奶粉产品线。我们预期羊奶粉2021 年营收将逐步恢复到双位数增长。公司私人品牌及其他奶粉业务/营养品分别实现营收2.3/0.3 亿元，同增19.8%/-11.3%，营养品业务下降较多主要由于公司逐步将部分NC 产品生产转移至国内，预计Q2 能够进行生产，同时公司已于4 月25 日获批一款自研婴幼儿益生菌菌株，未来将加快NC、爱益森益生菌的新品研发及国内销售渠道布局。 随销售转增和其他业务亏损收窄，盈利能力逐步恢复。公司Q1 毛利率为51.1%，若扣除其他奶粉业务亏损0.21 亿元，毛利率达52.0%，核心业务毛利率已同比恢复。其他奶粉业务亏损主要原因为海外市场受疫情影响，羊乳清蛋白加工副产品羊奶粉及羊奶油售价下跌幅度较大，但亏损幅度已较Q4 持续收窄。公司销售/管理/财务费用率为25.5%/8.0%/0.3%，同比基本持平。公司调整后净利率环比恢复2.1pct 至15.2%，。预计未来随核心业务占比提升，非核心业务亏损收窄，盈利能力有望持续提升。 投资建议：由于公司羊奶粉业务尚在恢复，我们下调公司 2021-2023 年营收预测为91.5/104.9/119.5 亿元，同比增长14.6%/14.6%/13.9%，归母净利润为12.2/14.4/16.9 亿元，同比增长21.0%/18.2%/17.9%，给予目标价15.4 港元，对应18 倍2021 年PE，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示：羊奶粉市场竞争加剧风险、牛奶粉推广效果不及预期风险、食品安全风险、新生人口持续下降风险
Q1 performance achieved double-digit growth at a high base, exceeding expectations. The company's Q1 realized revenue of 2.18 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9%, of which the core business private brand milk powder revenue of 1.93 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6%. In the case of the high revenue base of 2020 Q1 and the intensification of overall competition in the 2021 infant powder market, the company achieved double-digit growth and exceeded market expectations. Q1 achieved a net profit of 330 million yuan, an increase of 22.9% over the same period last year. Excluding the profit and loss impact of changes in the fair value of equity incentives over the same period of 20 years, the adjusted net profit increased by 11.0% compared with the same period last year. Hipnokai bucked the trend and the overall milk powder is expected to maintain rapid growth. The revenue of the company's milk powder Q1 was 1.05 billion yuan, an increase of 36.5%. The core product, Hipnokai, still achieved rapid growth against the trend despite the intensification of overall competition in the infant powder market, with sales reaching 720 million yuan, an increase of 58.7%. At the same time, after the adjustment of the operating structure last year, sales also returned to rapid growth. It is expected that this year, Hipnokai will continue to build a "1-3" product portfolio, increase investment in brand building, increase the frequency of activities, and steadily open up terminals, taking into account the multi-capacity and coordinated development of Menado brands, we predict that the company's milk powder revenue will maintain high double-digit growth in 2021. The adjustment of goat milk powder is basically over, and double-digit growth is expected to resume throughout the year. The revenue of the company's sheep milk powder Q1 was 870 million yuan, down 7.1%, narrowing compared with 2020 Q4 (- 12.8%), while increasing by 15.3% compared with Q4, showing an improvement trend. The revenue of domestic / overseas sheep milk powder was 83000,000 yuan respectively, down 5.9% and 27.2% respectively. The large decline in overseas markets is mainly affected by the epidemic, but the relatively low share has a limited impact on total revenue. Domestic revenue increased 29.7% month-on-month compared with Q4, and the year-on-year decline was mainly due to the high base of revenue caused by hoarding of goods by dealers and consumers during the epidemic last year. However, it can be observed that the company's channel adjustment of milk powder in Q3/Q4 has achieved results, the sales rhythm has basically recovered, and the channel inventory and sales have been adjusted back to the normal level. It is expected that the company will continue to consolidate the channel, boost dealer confidence by holding dealer meetings, adjusting sales model and strengthening online and offline brand marketing. at the same time, the company is expected to launch more high-end new products this year and next year to enrich the sheep milk powder product line. We expect the revenue of goat milk powder to gradually return to double-digit growth in 2021. The revenue of the company's private brand and other milk powder business / nutrition products reached 23 million yuan, up 19.8% and 11.3% respectively. The decline in nutrition business is mainly due to the gradual transfer of part of the production of NC products to China, and Q2 is expected to be able to carry out production. At the same time, the company has been approved a self-developed infant probiotics strain on April 25. In the future, we will speed up the research and development of new products and domestic sales channels of NC and Ai Yisen probiotics. As sales increased and other business losses narrowed, profitability gradually recovered. The company's Q1 gross profit margin is 51.1%. If deducting the loss of 21 million yuan from other milk powder business, the gross profit margin is 52.0%, and the core business gross profit margin has been restored compared with the same period last year. The loss in other milk powder business is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in overseas markets. The prices of goat milk powder and goat cream, by-products of sheep whey protein processing, have dropped significantly, but the loss has continued to narrow compared with Q4. The company's sales / management / financial expense rate is 25.5%, 8.0%, 0.3%, which is basically the same as the same period last year. After the adjustment of the company, the net interest rate returned to 2.1pct to 15.2%. It is expected that in the future, with the increase in the proportion of core business, the loss of non-core business will narrow, and profitability is expected to continue to improve. Investment suggestion: as the company's sheep milk powder business is still recovering, we downgrade the company's revenue forecast for 2021-2023 to 91.5 billion yuan 104.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6%, 14.6%, 13.9%, 12.2%, 14.4%, 1.69 billion and 21.0%, 18.2%, 17.9%, respectively, corresponding to a target price of HK $15.4 billion, corresponding to 18 times 2021 PE, which is equivalent to a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, 18.2%, 17.9%, and a target price of HK $15.4 billion, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 18 times 2021. Maintain a "buy" rating. Risk hints: the competition in the sheep milk powder market aggravates the risk, the promotion effect of the milk powder is not as good as expected, the food safety risk, and the risk of continuous decline of the newborn population.