核心观点： 2021Q1 收入增长迎开门红。据公司公告，2021Q1 公司实现营业收入21.83 亿元，同比增长12.94%，收入增长主要由自家品牌配方牛奶粉收入增长贡献。2021Q1 经调整后公司权益持有人应占利润3.31 亿元，同比增长10.98%。2021Q1 年毛利率下降2.80 个百分点至51.10%，主要因为相关乳制品商品价格受新冠疫情影响下跌带来的损失和存货拨备增加所致。 海普诺凯继续维持快速增长。2021Q1 澳优自家品牌牛奶粉营业收入10.53 亿元，同比增长36.47%；主要由海普诺凯收入增长推动（收入7.18 亿元，同比增长58.70%），主要原因：（1）公司加大品牌投入，提升消费者对品牌认知；（2）公司在一线市场开展销售活动，提升消费者体验；（3）公司采取1+3 品牌策略，分渠道进行产品布局。2021Q1公司自家品牌羊奶粉营业收入8.72 亿元，同比下降7.07%；羊奶粉营业收入增速放缓，主要因为2020Q1 羊奶粉基数较高（受新冠疫情影响产品囤货需求增加）。我们认为公司收入将继续增长：（1）公司积极的市场营销策略带动品牌力提升；（2）公司继续推进产品升级，计划推出有机羊奶粉、液态羊奶和A2 牛奶粉等产品；（3）公司2020 年已经完成了渠道梳理和加强了渠道管控，预计经营效率将提升。 预计2021-2023 年营业收入为91.45/102.95/109.67 亿元。预计公司2021-2023 年营业收入为91.45/102.95/109.67 亿元，同比增长14.52%/12.57%/6.53%；归母净利润为11.46/13.01/14.34 亿元，同比增长14.11%/13.54%/10.22%。我们维持合理价值为16.76 港元/股的判断不变，对应21 年PE 21 倍,维持“买入”评级。 风险提示。原材料价格波动风险；核心产品系列销售大幅下滑；食品安全问题。 注：本文除特别说明外，均使用人民币为货币币种.
Core ideas: 2021Q1 revenue growth is off to a good start. According to the company announcement, 2021Q1 achieved an operating income of 2.183 billion yuan, an increase of 12.94% over the same period last year, and the revenue growth was mainly contributed by the revenue growth of its own brand formula milk powder. After adjustment, the profit attributable to the equity holders of the 2021Q1 is 331 million yuan, an increase of 10.98% over the same period last year. 2021Q1's annual gross profit margin fell 2.80 percent to 51.10 percent, mainly due to losses caused by the decline in the prices of related dairy products affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and an increase in inventory provisions. Hipnokai continues to maintain rapid growth. The business income of 2021Q1 Aoyou's own brand milk powder was 1.053 billion yuan, an increase of 36.47% over the same period last year, which was mainly driven by the revenue growth of Hipnokai (718 million yuan, an increase of 58.70% over the same period last year). The main reasons are: (1) the company increases brand investment to enhance consumers' awareness of the brand; (2) the company carries out sales activities in the first-tier market to enhance consumer experience. (3) the company adopts 1-3 brand strategy and carries out product layout through different channels. The business income of 2021Q1's own brand goat milk powder was 872 million yuan, down 7.07% from the same period last year; the growth rate of business revenue of sheep milk powder slowed down, mainly because of the high base of 2020Q1 goat milk powder (increased demand for hoarding products affected by COVID-19 's epidemic). We believe that the company's revenue will continue to grow: (1) the company's active marketing strategy to enhance the brand; (2) the company continues to promote product upgrading, plans to launch organic goat milk powder, liquid sheep milk and A2 milk powder and other products; (3) the company has completed the channel carding and strengthened channel control in 2020, and it is expected that the operating efficiency will be improved. It is estimated that the operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 102.9510,967 million yuan. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 102.9510967 billion yuan, an increase of 14.52% 12.57% and 6.53% over the same period last year, and the net profit of its home will be 1.434 billion yuan, an increase of 14.11%, 13.54% and 10.22% over the same period last year. We maintain our fair value of HK $16.76 per share, corresponding to 21 times PE for 21 years, and maintain a "buy" rating. Risk tips. Risk of fluctuation in raw material prices; sharp decline in sales of core product lines; food safety issues. Note: unless otherwise stated, RMB is used as the currency in this article.