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1717.HK: bottom position confirmation

华西证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

  事件概述   公司发布一季报,1Q21 收入 21.8 亿元,同比+12.9%;归母净利润 3.3 亿元,同比+22.9%,剔除非经常损益影响,同比+11%。   分析判断: 羊奶粉确认复苏趋势   Q1 公司羊奶粉实现收入 8.7 亿元,同比-7.1%,环比+15.3%。其中,中国境内羊奶粉收入 8.3 亿元,同比5.9%,环比+29.7%。去年 Q1 由于疫情渠道囤货基数较高,羊奶粉收入同比下降,环比角度,经过去年一整年调整,年初以来窜货平台的成交价格逐月递增,今年 Q1 羊奶粉已处于复苏趋势中。中国婴配粉市场持续高端化加速羊奶粉需求,今年竞品羊奶粉也呈现快速增长态势(Q1 合生元羊奶粉收入同比+96%)。去年渠道窜货并没有动摇澳优佳贝艾特羊奶粉市场根基、仍保持国内羊奶粉市场 30%+份额的绝对龙头位置,经过公司迅速调整,经销商信心恢复,今年通过独家冠名口碑综艺《戏剧新生活》、携手热门电视剧《赘婿》品牌力认知度进一步扩大,我们预计今年佳贝艾特羊奶粉销售将呈现持续复苏的趋势,去年 Q2-Q4 基数较低,预计羊奶粉季度收入同比增幅将逐季扩大。 牛奶粉海普诺凯销售增速超预期   Q1 公司牛奶粉实现收入 10.5 亿元,同比+36.5%。其中,海普诺凯 1897 收入 7.2 亿元、同比+58.7%。去年全年海普诺凯 1897 收入同比+52.7%,今年 Q1 海普诺凯 1897 仍然保持高速成长,超此前预期。海普诺凯 1897定位超高端进口奶粉品牌,在国内本土团队运营下近几年发展势头迅猛、终端门店接受度快速提升,今年在目前我们判断不到 2 万家门店基础上继续有序覆盖 4~5 千家门店,预计海普诺凯收入仍将保持较快增长。   Q1 其他牛奶粉实现收入 3.4 亿元,同比+4.9%,其他牛奶粉业务单元包括能力多、美纳多事业部,经过去年事业部重组后,今年 Q1 呈稳步复苏态势。 主业盈利能力稳定   Q1 公司净利率 15.2%,去年 Q1 剔除非经常性损益后的净利率为 15.4%,同比-0.2pps,盈利能力保持稳定。其中 Q1 毛利率 51.1%,同比-2.8pps,我们判断毛利率同比下降与生产羊乳清的副产品贸易亏损、存货拨备增加有关。Q1 销售费用率 25.5%、同比-0.1pps,管理费用率 8%,同比持平,公司费用率稳定,符合全年计划。   投资建议   Q1 澳优两大核心事业部羊奶粉佳贝艾特复苏趋势得以验证,牛奶粉海普诺凯 1897 保持高速增长、增速超预期。业绩表现上由于去年 Q1 疫情渠道囤货导致高基数,Q1 业绩同比涨幅不大;去年 Q2-Q4 调整使基数走低,预计今年 Q2 开始季度业绩涨幅将明显提升。维持盈利预测 2021-23 年收入 93/108/125 亿元,归母净利12.5/15.2/18 亿元,EPS 0.73/0.88/1.05 元。当前股价对应 2021 年 P/E 仅 12 倍(港币兑人民币汇率 0.83),底部位置确认,维持买入评级。   风险提示   新生儿人口数量持续下降的风险;食品安全风险;消费者需求转变风险;行业内竞争激烈带来的风险。

Event Overview The company released a quarterly report, 1Q21 income 2.18 billion yuan, year-on-year + 12.9%; return to the mother net profit of 330 million yuan, year-on-year + 22.9%, excluding the impact of non-recurrent profit and loss, + 11% year-on-year. Analysis and judgment: Goat milk powder confirms recovery trend Q1 company sheep milk powder achieved revenue of 870 million yuan,-7.1% compared with the same period last year, with a month-on-month ratio of + 15.3%. Among them, China's goat milk powder revenue of 830 million yuan, 5.9% year-on-year, month-on-month + 29.7%. Last year, due to the high base of hoarding in Q1 epidemic channels, the revenue of goat milk powder decreased compared with the same period last year. From a month-on-month point of view, after adjustment for the whole year last year, the transaction price of the fleeing platform has increased month by month since the beginning of the year, and this year, Q1 sheep milk powder has been in the trend of recovery. China's infant powder market continues to accelerate the demand for goat milk powder, and this year's competitive goat milk powder is also showing a rapid growth trend (Q1 Hesheng Yuanyang milk powder revenue + 96% compared with the same period last year). Last year, the channeling of goods did not shake the foundation of the Aoyou Beit sheep milk powder market, and still maintained the absolute leading position of 30% + share of the domestic goat milk powder market. after the rapid adjustment of the company, the confidence of dealers was restored. This year, through the exclusive reputation of the variety show "New Life of Drama" and the brand recognition of the popular TV series "superfluous son-in-law", the brand awareness has been further expanded. We expect Jiabei sheep milk powder sales to show a sustained recovery this year, with a low Q2-Q4 base last year, and quarterly revenue growth is expected to expand quarter by quarter compared with the same period last year. The sales growth rate of milk powder Hipnokai is faster than expected. The income of milk powder of Q1 company was 1.05 billion yuan, which was + 36.5% compared with the same period last year. Of this total, Hipnokai 1897 earned 720 million yuan, + 58.7% compared with the same period last year. For the whole of last year, 1897 of Heipnokai's revenue was + 52.7% compared with the same period last year, and this year, Q1 Hypokai 1897 is still growing at a high speed, exceeding previous expectations. Hipnokai 1897 is positioned as an ultra-high-end imported milk powder brand. under the operation of the domestic team, it has developed rapidly in recent years, and the acceptance of terminal stores has increased rapidly. this year, on the basis of less than 20,000 stores, we will continue to cover 4,000 and 5,000 stores in an orderly manner, and it is expected that Hipnokai's revenue will continue to grow rapidly. Q1 other milk powder achieved income of 340 million yuan, + 4.9% year-on-year, other milk powder business units, including capacity, Menado Division, after the reorganization of the business department last year, Q1 showed a steady recovery this year. The profitability of the main business is stable. The net interest rate of Q1 company is 15.2%. Last year, after excluding non-recurring profit and loss, the net interest rate of Q1 was 15.4%, which was-0.2 pps compared with the same period last year, and its profitability remained stable. Among them, Q1 gross profit margin is 51.1%,-2.8 pps compared with the same period last year. We judge that the decline in gross profit margin compared with the same period last year is related to the by-product trade loss in the production of goat whey and the increase in inventory provision. Q1 sales expense rate is 25.5%, year-on-year-0.1 pps, management expense rate is 8%, the same as the same period last year, the company's expense rate is stable, in line with the annual plan. Investment suggestion Q1 Australia excellent two core business units of sheep milk powder Jia Beit recovery trend has been verified, milk powder Hipnock 1897 maintained high-speed growth, faster-than-expected growth. Performance due to last year's Q1 epidemic channel hoarding led to a high base, Q1 performance increased little compared with the same period last year; last year's Q2-Q4 adjustment led to a lower base, Q2 is expected to start a significant increase in quarterly performance this year. Maintain the profit forecast for 2021-23, the net income is 125 million yuan, the net profit is 1.25 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.85 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.85 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.25 billion yuan, and the net profit is 1.85 billion yuan. The current share price is only 12 times 2021 Pamp E (the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to the RMB is 0.83). The bottom position is confirmed and the buy rating is maintained. Risk hint The risk of a continuous decline in the number of newborns; the risk of food safety; the risk of changing consumer demand; the risk of fierce competition in the industry.

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