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保利协鑫能源(3800.HK):聚焦硅料业务 颗粒硅蓄势待发

国泰君安 ·  {{timeTz}}
  给予“谨慎增持” 评级。预计2020-2022 年EPS 分别为-0.24、0.04、0.08元,给予2022 年25 倍PE,对应目标价2.38 港元。给予谨慎增持评级。

  平价推动光伏装机快速增长,多晶硅供需持续偏紧。光伏经济性推动绿色能源发展,碳中和已成全球共识。国内市场,“碳达峰”强化能源发展目标,平价项目快速增长,户用市场发展迅猛;海外市场,欧洲、美国等传统市场增长强劲,新兴市场增量明显。疫情虽对光伏发展构成短期扰动,中长期看需求乐观,行业前景广阔。当前多晶硅市场供需持续偏紧,下游装机需求乐观,产业链积极扩产,高品质硅料需求提升,硅料新增产能释放较缓,阶段性供给紧张预计仍将延续,价格有望继续维持高位。

  颗粒硅产业化快速推进,公司掌握核心技术,有望深度受益。FBR 颗粒硅采用硅烷流床法生产,较行业主流的西门子法,具有品质高、成本低等优势,且适用于连续直拉单晶工艺,有望成为下一代硅料生产工艺。公司是全球唯一掌握FBR 颗粒硅规模化生产的企业,低成本、高技术壁垒构筑核心竞争力。公司颗粒硅产品下游客户验证进展顺利,产品纯度控制、“溅硅”等技术问题改善明显,产业化快速推进。公司积极调整战略转型,聚焦硅料主业,发力颗粒硅业务。目前,公司颗粒硅产能规模已进入万吨行列,位居世界第一,且未来产能规划持续扩张。公司有望凭借颗粒硅优势业务,开启新一轮快速成长,实现业绩企稳回升。

  催化剂。供应链长单签订、下游颗粒硅验证进展顺利。

  风险提示。海外疫情影响光伏装机的风险、意料之外的技术故障影响。

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