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训修实业(1962.HK):会议记录摘要;新冠肺炎后订单恢复强劲

新华汇富 ·  {{timeTz}}
会议记录摘要;新冠肺炎后订单恢复强劲

公司指引颇悲观的盈利预测,20 全年约收支平衡。但受惠订单恢复强劲,预期20 下半年/21 全年分别同比增长约36%/超15%,预视21 全年表现应该不错。这归功于至21 年第1 季强劲的订单。因某些国家(如:马来西亚)的竞争对手受新冠肺炎影响生产线,业务已转移到训修实业的孟加拉工厂。

新冠肺炎后订单恢复强劲:

管理层预计20 年下半年销售同比增长约24%,受惠订单增长约36%(尽管平均售价下降约9%)

我们估计21 财年整体销售同比增长约20%,因:(1)至21 年3 月的订单已满(21 年首3 个月:估计同比增长超15%);(2)低基数效应(20 年4 至6 月销售:估计同比下跌约45%)利润率及成本:

估计20/21 年混合毛利率为23%/ 29%,合成发产品占比达到61%/56%(估计20 年上半年/19 年为58.0%/46.6%),基于我们预计人发产品需求将于21 年第2 季尾逐步回升

20/21 年整体员工数同比增长13%/14%,受惠搬迁至乌特拉出口加工区,我们估计整体员工成本仅同比增长6%/6%至港币3.42 亿/3.63 亿。

20 年下半年计划资本开支约为港币1,500 万,用于办公室及厂房翻新基于11.5 倍21 年预测市盈率,维持长仓评级及目标价为HK$1.7520 年盈利大致上已注销,但21/22 年预测销售为港币10.2 亿/12.2 亿及净利润港币1.11 亿/1.41 亿。这仅低于我们原本预测几个百分点。我们依然相信消费升级为人发产品的故事。因此,我们维持长仓及目标价为HK$1.75。

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