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富途研选 | 需求强劲,IDC行业Q2新增订单创新高
Fortune Research and selection | strong demand, new orders for Q2 in IDC industry hit a record high

中信证券 ·  {{timeTz}}

本文精编自中信证券:《中美数据中心IDC二季报:新增订单创新高,关注三大运营商IDC资产价值》

This article is edited by CITIC: "Sino-American data Center IDC Quarterly report: new orders reach a new high, focus on the asset value of the three major operators IDC"

摘要:年初以来,全球IDC板块均有不俗表现,美股EQIX、DLR年初至今分别上涨37%,国内IDC企业宝信软件、数据港、世纪互联、万国数据累计涨幅超过50%。Q2财报数据显示,二季度主要 IDC 企业新项目上架率快速恢复,企业盈利能力亦显著改善。万国数据、北美四家IDC企业二季度新增订单均创近期新高,显示下游市场强劲需求。

Abstract: since the beginning of the year, the global IDC sector has performed well. Us stocks EQIX and DLR have risen 37% since the beginning of the year, while domestic IDC companies Baoxin Software, Dataport, 21Vianet Group Inc and GDS Holdings Limited have risen more than 50%. Q2 financial report data show that the shelving rate of new projects of major IDC enterprises recovered rapidly in the second quarter, and corporate profitability also improved significantly. GDS Holdings Limited, four IDC companies in North America, new orders in the second quarter all reached recent highs, indicating strong demand in the downstream market.

上架率快速恢复,企业运营效率显著改善

The shelving rate has recovered rapidly, and the operating efficiency of the enterprise has been significantly improved.

伴随前期疫情缓和,以及下游市场需求强劲,本季度主要IDC厂商新项目上架率显著改善。国内市场,万国数据、世纪互联、数据港二季度营收分别同比+36%、+29%、+11%,三大运营商2020H1IDC业务合计收入达339亿元,继续在国内市场扮演重要角色。美股EQIX(同比+6%)、DLR(同比+24%)保持稳健。

With the easing of the epidemic in the early stage and strong demand in the downstream market, the shelving rate of new projects by major IDC manufacturers improved significantly this quarter.In the domestic market, the revenue of GDS Holdings Limited, 21Vianet Group Inc and Dataport in the second quarter was + 36%, + 29% and + 11% respectively compared with the same period last year. The combined revenue of the three major operators' 2020H1IDC business reached 33.9 billion yuan and continued to play an important role in the domestic market. Us stocks EQIX (year-on-year + 6 per cent) and DLR (year-on-year + 24 per cent) remained robust.

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盈利层面,二季度万国数据EBITDA Margin达到47.2%(同比+3.7pcts),接近同期EQIX水平(49.0%),in service项目上架率亦提升至72.5%;世纪互联EBITDAMargin亦小幅提升至26.8%(同比-2.6pcts,环比+3.0pcts),反映一季度交付项目上架率加快。美股EQIX、DLR整体表现平稳。本季度行业整体单机柜价格继续保持稳定。

At the profit level, GDS Holdings Limited's EBITDA Margin reached 47.2% (year-on-year + 3.7pcts) in the second quarter, close to the EQIX level of the same period (49.0%).The shelving rate of in service projects also increased to 72.5%; 21Vianet Group Inc EBITDAMargin also slightly increased to 26.8% (year-on-year-2.6pcts, month-on-month + 3.0pcts), reflecting the accelerated shelving rate of delivered projects in the first quarter. The overall performance of EQIX and DLR in US stocks is stable. The price of single cabinet in the industry as a whole remained stable in this quarter.

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Q2新增订单均创近期新高

Q2 new orders all hit recent highs.

Q2主要企业新签约订单表现继续维持强劲,万国数据二季度新签约订单大幅升至4.6万平方米,美股四家whole sale IDC企业(DLR、QTS、COR、CONE)新签约订单继续创最近三年新高,显示下游云计算、互联网公司的持续旺盛需求。

The performance of new orders signed by Q2 major enterprises continued to be strong, with GDS Holdings Limited's newly signed orders rising sharply to 46000 square meters in the second quarter, and new orders signed by four whole sale IDC companies (DLR, QTS, COR, CONE) in the United States continued to reach a new high in the last three years, indicating the continued strong demand of downstream cloud computing and Internet companies.

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万国数据将全年资本开支从此前75亿元调整至100亿元;世纪互联继续维持32~34亿元指引;数据港目前在建工程11.2亿元;光环新网在现有规划下,未来数年存量机柜数有望提升至10万个左右。

GDS Holdings Limited adjusted the annual capital expenditure from 7.5 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan; 21Vianet Group Inc continued to maintain the guidance of 32-3.4 billion yuan; the data port is currently under construction of 1.12 billion yuan; and Sinnet is expected to increase the number of storage cabinets to about 100000 in the next few years.

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运营商部分,目前联通、电信存量机柜资源数分别为27.7万、38万个,中国移动2017年机柜资源便已达到10.4万个,估计目前应在20万个左右。海外市场,继去年欧洲hyperscale项目之后,EQIX联合新加坡GIC继续加码日本hyperscale市场。

In the part of operators, the current inventory cabinet resources of Unicom and telecom are 277000 and 380000 respectively. China Mobile Limited's cabinet resources reached 104000 in 2017, and it is estimated that it should be about 200000 at present.Overseas markets, following the European hyperscale project last year, EQIX and Singapore GIC continue to strengthen the Japanese hyperscale market.

市场需求、基准利率驱动中长期增长

Market demand and benchmark interest rates drive medium-and long-term growth

需求方面,疫情之后,企业数字化、云化转型,用户线上习惯基本延续,市场需求继续维持强劲。同时,短期北美云计算巨头资本支出面临周期性下行,但对IDC需求扰动基本有限;

Demand sideAfter the epidemic, the digitization and cloud transformation of enterprises, the online habits of users basically continued, and the market demand continued to be strong. At the same time, the short-term capital expenditure of North American cloud computing giants faces a cyclical decline, but the disturbance to IDC demand is basically limited.

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市场利率方面,全球正开启新一轮的宽松周期,同时当前国内IDC企业综合融资成本(5%~8%)仍显著高于美股企业(3%~4%)。伴随国内市场利率的长周期下行,以及银行等传统信贷机构对IDC资产认可度提升,国内IDC企业的融资约束、融资成本高等问题等亦有望持续改善。

Market interest rateThe world is embarking on a new cycle of easing, while the comprehensive financing cost of domestic IDC companies (5%-8%) is still significantly higher than that of US stocks (3%-4%).With the long-term downward trend of interest rates in the domestic market and the increase in the recognition of IDC assets by banks and other traditional credit institutions, the financing constraints and high financing costs of domestic IDC enterprises are also expected to continue to improve.

估值短期相对充分

Valuation is relatively sufficient in the short term.

年初以来,全球IDC板块均有不俗表现,美股EQIX、DLR年初至今分别上涨37%、33%;叠加新基建的政策,国内IDC企业宝信软件、数据港、世纪互联、万国数据累计涨幅超过50%,光环新网亦有近30%涨幅。

Since the beginning of the year, the global IDC sector has performed well, with US stocks EQIX and DLR up 37% and 33% respectively so far this year. With the policy of superimposing new infrastructure, domestic IDC companies Baoxin Software, Dataport, 21Vianet Group Inc and GDS Holdings Limited have risen more than 50%, and Sinnet has also increased nearly 30%.

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目前美股代表性IDC企业EV/EBITDA(2020E)已从年初20~22X上行至28X附近,对应EBITDA复合增速8~10%。

At present, EV/EBITDA (2020E), a representative IDC enterprise in the US stock market, has risen from 20,22X at the beginning of the year to around 28X, corresponding to a compound EBITDA growth rate of 80.10%.

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